feel bad bud. That was Monday for crying out loud. Bottom line is back then I would have probably given you crappy advise. Think there is pretty good agreement right now and the trough sinking into the lower 48's is beginning to be read a BIT better. Weaker trough takes Irma more east. Stronger more west. That's why the models show Irma heading up the coast or just off...and then as it gets to the FL, GA border..it begins to even move NW instead of north in many models....the trough sinks even further south and captures the storm to move it WEST. The same setup eventually pulls IRMA north and actually phases ...bring areas like Syracuse NY as much as 3-4 inches of rains and parts inland w/ gusts over 40 mph. Now...if that setup weakens...it will allow the storm to move even more east bring my area a more direct hit and areas up 95 more wind and rain. I think we will get a better read today. Lets see if the GFS strays farther east.
and now the nhc moved their model even more east. Expect it to move even more slightly east at 2pm. This would be a very bad run for the coast of Florida...very bad. Hopefully it will continue to run east a bit more. LINK: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=329284
Really interested in this run. Blows out to sea? Tough to imagine but it enters the discussion. Doubt it but a Mathew type path is now in the cards...hugs all the coasts. Doubt it though. It does open the door for landfall in SC/NC or even GA.
Of course there is a chance it will blow out to sea, didn't you see my post saying that is unlikely. I'm the kotite of amateur weathermen
LOL...no you are not bud. You do what we all do. We get hung up from run to run. I do it too. The only thing I did different the past 5 years or so is digest before I type...MOST OF THE TIME. Not all the time. Many weather people will say "its not a trend if a model does something one time". That has NEVER worked for me....I want to know why it just did that. Most of the time when a model offers something different, IT DOES NOT come back to where it was the next run. One run is a trend in my book...but I just don't jump at it. Mention it....and wait. I like to go into these things knowing I'm an idiot. It works very well.
Only out to 90 hours but a hair west...and a hair west would give Miami fits. This would be Sunday evening. The zone is being nailed down...but 50 miles destroys a city or it doesn't.
96 hours up the Florida coast. East coast that is. And I mean...up the coast...no more than 50 miles off shore. Remember...counter clock wise rotation...so to the north of the eye, its throwing winds...rain..and ocean on the coast. Not a good scene.
Mentioning on another site...and to be honest...I mean..I don't know. Not sure how you can not have evacuations for Miami at this point forward. Its just..I mean...10 to 40 miles from the eye? Just don't know how you avoid what would be a horrible evacuation. Cant see it happening but cant see...well will shut up for now about that one.
Yeah....Miami should start evacuations. They really should. If not..they are counting on a storm racing 16mph to stop on a dime and make a severe right turn and miss just wide right perfectly and still get crushed. That's like driving 90mph in the left lane and trying to get off on a ramp on the right side. In weather terms it could happen. I wouldn't want to put my trust in that at all. What the models are really saying is that the eye will at some point almost come to a complete stop...and then head north..even slightly NNE. Could happen...but if they don't evacuate...that's what they're putting their faith in. 6 million people. Nah.
WOW I run a few errands and leave the site for a while and come back to Jay on caffein !!! Keep them coming guys this is scary stuff
for anyone in Florida...great site for evacuation routes and storm surge etc: http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/
Miami says not yet to evacuation. Read the article... Gimenez had been ready to instruct residents to get out, but he said the 11 a.m. Irma advisory from the National Hurricane Center gave him pause. “The storm’s slowing down, giving us a little bit more time,” Gimenez said from the county’s emergency operations center in Doral. Hmmm....slowing down. That's news. link: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171514717.html
