My Take on the Offseason So Far

I think the Jets have had a rough off-season so far but not without some hopes for 2016 and the future.

The value signings were mostly players prime and later with Forte, Jenkins and McClendon all late in their careers at this point with Forte and McClendon particularly so. As such they weren't really value signings as much as finger in the dike moves to postpone other decisions for a year. The Jets added no 2018 value in this free agent class and it's not clear that they'll get 2017 out of anybody but Jenkins.

Somewhat balancing off that factor is that Chris Ivory was no better value 2 years down the road than Forte. Losing Snacks for McClendon was a huge net loss in terms of the physical plant on the defense. Right now the Jets have a stopgap at NT who is likely to be retired after the season leaving us to go looking for help there again.

I guess the best way to put the free agent situation is that it was a hold for the year while the rest of the roster got a year older.

No argument here. The Jets special teams were pretty miserable last year and anything would have been an improvement. The team definitely took a step forward even if the new arrivals aren't particularly good. They just have to be not bad for that to be true.

The Jets made the right move here and it might work out or it might not but there was no other alternative. Giving Fitzpatrick a big deal would have locked the Jets into this window and had huge repercussions in terms of dealing with other players down the road. He's fun to watch and he's a good leader but he's not a proven winner by any stretch of the imagination and you just don't pay QB's big money unless they have proven they can take you to the playoffs and make you a contender year in and year out.

These guys are a crossroads for the new regime. If they work out we're in decent shape moving forward and if they don't we'll have a new GM and coach in a couple of years. Nothing that I've seen anywhere suggests that they were bad picks where they were taken and I'm thinking there's a very good chance they're big contributors this year and mainstays in the Jet's defense for the next 5 years.

I'd say this is an overly optimistic assessment of Hackenberg's chances. I think it is fairly likely that we're in a situation in 3 years where the Jets are deciding whether or not to offer Hackenberg a second deal at half-price of a franchise QB because he's still very young and the Jets have seen enough to tantalize them but he hasn't put it all together.

If Hackenberg was just sitting for the next 3 years behind a hall of famer, like Aaron Rodgers did, the odds on him hitting his stride in his mid-20's and becoming very good would be much higher. There'd be very little pressure on him running the scout team and sitting behind the starter over that timespan and he'd be able to get the Penn State heebie-jeebies completely out of his system and maybe he'd light it up when he got his chance. That's the 1 in 4 chance of a high quality starting QB in my opinion.

Instead we're in NY/NJ with a franchise that hasn't had a real franchise guy in at least a decade and probably more like 3 decades. The other guys around him aren't very good and won't keep him on the bench if there's any spark there at all. The offensive line is still aging out and the WR's are good enough right now to prop him up but will be gone by the times he's 24. It's just an ugly situation in terms of developing him. The Jets may decide to rush him on the field because they know Marshall and Decker are going to be gone by the time he would hit the field naturally and they want him to have the opportunity to play with high-quality receivers around him before they age out.

I make Hackenberg out as a 10 to 1 shot at best and that's with the greenest of glasses on at this point.

Generally speaking I think the Jets could whistle past the graveyard this year and make the playoffs, particularly if Fitzpatrick is re-signed for the season, however I think the long-term prospects of the team are no better than they were in 2012 and they're similarly prone to a sudden collapse if somebody like Nick Mangold drops out or if Clady gets hurt again or one of the big receivers goes missing via injury.

The defense seems very solid on paper but Revis is over 30 and David Harris is approaching the point at which a decline seems almost inevitable. The Jets could easily see gains by a young player like Calvin Pryor or Lorenzo Mauldin balanced off by declines elsewhere and stay at a level that is good enough to compete but not good enough to win games on the defensive side of the ball. That would be very much like 2012 also.

On the Mo situation, I think the Jets were just screwed here. I think Mo was in Revis "My Money" mode from the get-go and the Jets had no chance to sign him to a reasonable deal at any point in the process. I think they have done what was necessary to preserve the team's ability to negotiate with young talent moving forward. That doesn't make it any nicer for all of us to deal with but the fault was not in the Mo negotiation process, it was in letting Darrelle Revis run the show from 2007 to 2012. That's where the player's eyeballs went when their contract situations came up for extension. Hopefully it will not take another round of tense drawn out negotiations with the next wave.

NFL football is a team sport. If you pay anybody 10% of your cap you are spitting into the wind.

Anyway, good post. You brought up most of the main areas of concern and did a fairly balanced review.

I'd put the Jets 2016 as likely to be in the C+/B- range with 8 wins and a chance of surprising if everything falls just right. That's a lot better than 2012 to 2014.

 

60 % is an exaggeration, however, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Randall Cunningham, Ron Jaworski, Ken Stabler, Boomer Esiason, Andy Dalton and Derek Carr say hello

 

Those aren't top 5 picks - like I named, which still have a high percentage of success.

If you want second rounders then include all the Geno Smiths, Browning Nagles, and Kellen Clemens of all the teams and the number goes way below 60% league wide or if your the Jets 0%.
Well I guess now is as good a time as any to change that.

 

The offseason in a nutshell....

-LB corps looks improved.
-Punter looks improved.
-QB up in the air unless Fitz signs.
-OL is aging and Clady is the big variable here.
-Still need a pass rushing DE.
-Amaro needs to show up and show out.

Call me overly optimistic but I still see a playoff team if Fitz comes back. The end.

 

Thought we were talking about 2nd rounders 336

 

There's this certain soon to be HOF 2nd rounder I think Hackenberg looks alot like in your pic dare I say plays a bit like this former one year NYJ. I'm not going to be the first one to bring this guys name up as a comparison so I'll leave it at that lol.

 

I'm not taking someone who will turn out to be a below-average QB at 20. That'd be moronic and clearly Mac agreed.

 

My take on the offseason is unless Fitzpatrick is back we are going 6-10.And if there was ever a year to win the AFC East its this one with Brady out.

 

Fair response.

I agree regarding the consensus on Jenkins, I just think they underestimate him somewhat as an athlete. After all, how do we measure someone's "athleticism"? Isn't it by how agile, fast, flexible, powerful/explosive, quick they are? Well, at least on two measures of explosiveness Jenkins excels, at least in relation to his peers in the draft class.

Maybe it's fair to give Mac a lower grade if he can't resolve the Mo situation satisfactorily, but imo it was a no-win situation for him. Sometimes, in spite of saying and doing the right things, and everything we can, things just don't work out. Not everything is under our control. In fact, most people are delusional about what is under our control. We have a lot less control in life than we like to think. We have control over how we react to situations and things, but not much control over events.

I can understand not thinking Hack has great odds of succeeding. I just have a gut feeling about him, but it could be agita or something.

Regardless of what happens with Fitz, my attitude is that it worked out for the best. In most fans' minds, Fitz gives us the best chance to be a playoff team this year, so if he's back that will keep the fans happy, and probably Marshall, Decker and Mangold, and he can help mentor Hack and Petty. If he doesn't come back, then the Jets will have more money to spend next year, will answer the Geno question once and for all, Petty and Hack will get more meaningful reps, which should help their development, and if Geno is as good as the minority of posters here think, the Jets will still have a good season. If he's not, then the Jets will probably be picking in the top 10 to 15, which will give them a better shot at getting an OT they really like, or maybe a QB if there's one they really covet in the draft next year.