Dueling models. Gfs wants to give everyone lots of snow. Euro wants to to take out to sea. Either way nyc will see a good snow. Points inland might be spared. A few factors involved, last weeks rain storm ended up much further north than models predicted so theres the trend to support the gfs. Secondly, as mentioned, warmer ocean temps tend to keep these storms on the coast. This could make the gfs correct. Now, and this cant be overlooked, i am picking up a new snow blower friday. This factor alone should send the storm out to sea limiting snow totals to near 0
Probably later now? Models have this thing dragging to get to us. Might not see flakes till saturday morning
FJF, after I got the Ariens, it didn't snow here for two years! I had to hear it from the wife every winter: " you spent how much on that thing?" "Ain't used it yet!"... I was thrilled when it did finally snow big here! Shut her up about it!!!
losing confidence, 6pm gfs agrees with latest euro. cman still in snow.jersey,nyc l.i. still snow. north and west though get nothing.me and CBG on the outside looking in? models went back to yesterdays run.
I'm only 50miles north of B'more and 90 NNE of DC. Both of those towns have Blizzard Watches. They're still calling for 12-18" here. A bigger concern is high tides and winds for coastal areas. I'm on the northern side of this so I'm betting we get hit. After what Sandy did to the bottom when she hit, I'm hoping this storm doesn't f up the fishing this year off the Jersey Coast.
Wow,,,amazing that the models are all over the place as far as back and forth ,,,,,,,I hope we get buried but will not lie when I say When they hype it for days ( not talking about you FJF , talking the media ) it is usually the kiss of death,,,,next run later tonight mean anything or should we flip a coin and hope ?
FJF tonight's models come out at 10 , 11,12 and 1:30 will you be on later to read them or in the morning ?i will check out some other sites to see what the geeks are saying but value you snow loving opinion,,,,lol
might be on for the 10p. not sure what to make of the disagreements. like i posted earlier, history is on our side with the ocean temps keeping storms closer to shore, not sure what the euro and now the gfs is seeing that drags it east. @Cman60 this is a classic miller A track.- comes from the south,tracks up the coast. miller B come from the north.
this is lates gfs. bigger numbers to the south and L.I due to the eastern track. if this keeps up d.c. will have a historic snowfall and Cman will be running the ariens all day . respectable amounts for nyc as well. i'd say this is the starting bid.
Wife is in town for an interview Friday morning. Then she's supposed to be driving back to Rhode Island after that. I figure as long as she doesn't leave too late, she'll make it back before the snow. My area in South Jersey looks like it's going to get spared. More worried about flooding than the snow. Supposed to turn into rain by the afternoon. Then I just gotta worry about it freezing up over night. But Sunday's supposed to be warm too so hopefully most of it melts by the end of the weekend. Checking my usual sites. Weather Channel: 3-5 inches Accuweather: 6-10 inches Weather Underground: 5-8 inches Please be wrong, please be wrong...
gfs still staying south, ^ tough call on the south jersey shore gd. i think the warm air wins and you get mostly rain, maybe some change over after sunset saturday. high tide is going to be a problem for you. looks like i am getting shut out. CBG a few inches? cman 12+
Well all i can say is yuck,,,,,,,the computer models have been wrong before I guess all we can hope for FJF is that they are wrong again and that this thing hugs the coast ,,,,keep em coming
I have been checking out blogs and websites since my last post ,,,,,most say north of us say past 84 gets 1 to 4,,,,,from 287 to 84 gets 4 to 8 and south of 287 foot plus,,,,,,,,,,,,,I sure hope this storm does not turn east and heads more north,,,,but that's me,,,,,,,,FJF what do u think of those numbers ? I am also reading that the Nam ( which I believe usually does well as storms get closer ) has the storm giving NYC ,,and everyone else a lot more snow,,,,hmmmmm
@CBG i would take the low side of those numbers. just checked out the 6am nam and it agrees with gfs and euro. high pressure blocking to the north killing us for the big stuff. @74 starting in southern virginia tomorrow afernoon
So far locals still has us in the bullseye FJF. Storm Totals for York Co, PA. : Locals: 12-18" Accuweather: 12-24" TWC: 14-22"
Sounds like NYC will get half a foot or less and Central Connecticut will get a dusting, all starting Saturday early am hours
