The European model calls for 13.70 inches of rain in my county by Monday night. That's like 2 dicks of water (for most men) with that much water and gusts of 40mph, looks like its time to stock up on canned food and batteries. Cross my fingers, hope the power stays on and a tree doesn't fall on anything.
This thing is showing a constant north carolina landfall on spagehetti models. The corrections south are continuing. Tons of rain for all. Brook...heavy rain but still believe direct hit come somewhere in n.c.
welcome back jay! fla has been doing an admirable job in your absence. so i have a golf outing on sunday in phillipsburg, nj (architects golf club). is it looking like a washout?
So I'm supposed to go to Cornell for an alumni meeting from Friday to Sunday at noon. Do I need to head back early to protect the castle in Morris County? Or not go at all. Basement floods if the sump pump loses power. Neighborhood streets can flood with torrential rain in very short time. Water water everywhere where I live. I want time to prepare if this is going to hit.
New model run should be out soon,,,,,not getting a warm fuzzy feeling from all these weather reports,,,,,,welcome ,,,almost back Jay !
Lol....well....cbg..the almost line had me cracking up. Ok...the north carolina landfall may not happen. The current trend is a bad one for the entire coast. Stays just off the.coast and.batters all the beaches for a long time. Right now, thinking is historic rain producer. Big numbers with many inland areas getting over 7. Some as much as 12. Remember, Sandy gave north jersey around 2 to 3. This is NOT a Sandy. Sandy destroyed with wind....not rain. Still a Jersey landfall or a long island landfall cant be ruled out. The point is that the inland damage will not be as much wind related but flooding. These rain numbers will be recording breaking. If your home gets water with big storms, this will be a major problem. Some that never get water.....will. Fjf...and the rest! Keep up the great work. Will be on more next 3 days starting fhis afternoon. Friggin great job by all...fjf is a superstar.
Jay You are one more time, the most important poster at TGG. Me, my family, friends and entire company are waiting for your storm updates. You are a small time celebrity in my universe. That said, what about the power outage potential? Time to stock groceries and hunt for a decent generator?
I switched to my PC. Im still a moron on my tablet. Takes me minutes to post instead of seconds on this. Let me try to answer all of the questions before I go into work. Jwws...you have a problem bud. You know I try NOT to overdo things. You need to take care of the water issues and prepare BEFORE you go up there. The flooding will be the problem with this storm. Until the exact track or close to is realized with the models....Im not even thinking about wind. RAIN...imagine the worst flooding you have had with your basement and realize that is the potential and worse with this storm. I would take care of it starting now...whatever prep you need to do....do it. I cant emphasize enough the POTENTIAL rain with this storm from VA to Maine. Also...and most will forget this next line because it would be next week....the flooding to the north will have huge impacts all week long next week because what happens to the north..has to come south. This will have major consequences long after the storm ends.
Way too kind Brook....but thanks sir. Power outages are a tough call because I have yet to see a model that brings the winds to that level...still strong. So that would mean no on the power outages...umm....wrong. Problem is that the grounds are saturated already. Add on to that the amount of rain and we do not need Sandy type winds to knock down trees etc. If winds average in the 30s or 40s....10 inches of rain...hell...6 inches of rain...power is going to go out. I would prepare as if that will happen. Again...thanks for the nice words bud...miss ya!!
Depends whos dick we are talking about..if its Jonnnyd's, that would be 5.5 dicks. That amount of rain and winds averaging even in the low tropical storm level...lets say 30 to 35? Power will go out for many.
CBG..miss ya buddy! All indications as of now is the hurricane to lose some strength as it moves north...perhaps a category 1...let me explain for several reasons why this is not a Sandy. Sandy moved over the open waters of the Atlantic and turned left by Maryland....picking up speed and making a b-line for the Jersey coast. More importantly, Sandy approached with a huge High Pressure located over the Great Lakes. The combination of the 2 brought wind gusts over 30 all the way to Detroit. That setup allowed areas inland to experience winds that would rarely happen after a storm makes landfall. NOW...Sandy was NOT a rain producer for our area. Most areas received between 2 to 3 inches. My area received 1.76 inches. Not much. Sandy was a wind producer that plowed into the Jersey coast...and all areas NORTH of the eye got battered. This one will make Sandy pale in comparison with rain...the rain that will fall from this hurricane will be 5 times as much as Sandy. This hurricane will also move slower..allowing it to lose some power over the colder Atlantic waters ...but the rain will still be a coming...big time. EDIT....and areas to the west in West Virginia received over a foot of snow out of Sandy...that setup was a once in a lifetime.
I'm going to wait for the 12z, but I have a feeling the Euro is going to have the day and take this out to sea. I feel bad for the folks in the Bahamas who have this thing on their back porches and will continue to have it just sit there for the next 12 hours.
Its possible FM....even if it comes partially true, the rain..oh the rain. Here is my thinking about ALL the models with tropical systems...ene mene mini moe. While they did well with Sandy....they struggle with these systems..especially up north. THIS COULD be a system that produces tons of rain....decent winds...and makes landfall NOWHERE at all. I would think that very well could be the case.
What the? I gave you Autumn foliage viewing advice--are we forgetting THAT?!? Hey Jay- what about tonite? Heading to the Stadium to see the Sox put another hurting on the Yanks, am I getting the game in? _
The Euro has the storm from where it is now moving SW slowly and then basically back to this spot over the next 42 hrs....so according to Euro this thing should still be roughly where it is right now by Sat morning. That sucks for the Bahamas That sounds right. It's gonna be a soaker, and even though we didn't get much rain from Sandy the flooding from the storm surge is what did most of the damage, not the wind. The folks that are still struggling are the ones who saw the most water. I don't envy them this time, even without a direct hit. I like the honesty of the NWS, "We don't know"
Am I going to have to road trip to Maine to catch the Jets game? My area loses power in every major blow at this point because all the wires are above ground.
Be safe everyone, hopefully that front / trough keeps it off the coast but I'll be at the beach...... Surf's going to be PUMPING this weekend may have to watch the game on delay.
