Relax...Harvard Study has Jets making playoffs

They must think Fitzy will start most of the season.

 

The study is flawed. It only looks at the AV of a select set of players. This automatically discriminates against teams that have a lot of quality players at the same level. It favors teams with a few players at a high level in key positions however it doesn't demand that one of those players be the QB.

So injuries will hit the teams it favors harder on average when they occur, since you're as likely to lose a high AV star as a mediocre JAG. The reason it has the Patriots lower than the Fins, which is nonsensical in a non-injury situation, is that the average Patriot star has a lower AV than the average star on the other 3 teams. This is because Belichik chooses to have a lot of good players and routinely gets rid of his high AV stars that are post-prime unless their initials are TB.

The reason it sees the Jets as favored among NFL teams is that it highly weights two offensive linemen and the top four in the front 7 on defense plus the top 2 DB's. That's like cherry-picking the Jets talent from just the places it lives in. Without the QB it means nothing.

I believe in AV as a measure of ability and use it myself. I would never choose to use just a subset of the AV package in prognostication unless the QB was part of it and he was great.

Edit: just realized the Jets aren't making the playoffs under that study. It has the Fins and the Pats and the Chiefs and the Broncos both listed above the Jets. That's no playoffs even if the Jets are #7 on the list.

I think it also has the Seahawks with much too high a percentage chance. Yeah, the 49ers got devastated this year and the Cardinals may not have a QB but 95% to make the playoffs is ridiculously high. The Seahawks have better than a 5% chance of missing the playoffs based just on an injury wave. All it would take is one bad hit on Russell Wilson and they're not making the playoffs.

 

Fuckin'nerds.

Hope they're right . . .

 

If the Dolphins win the AFC, I'll take missing the playoffs for 1 more yr

 

From top to bottom the Dolphins are the most talented team in the division, I have them winning the division this year, of course I hope I'm wrong and the Jets win it.

 

I wouldn't say that they're the most talented 'from top to bottom'; the Jets and the Bills probably have the 2 most talented rosters overall. However, the Dolphins have the best pairing of overall talent with a quality quarterback. If I had to rank the 4 teams based on talent, weighting each position equally, I'd go Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots. Once you factor in the importance of the quarterback, the Dolphins may be the only team that can stack up with the Patriots.

I love their WR corps (Parker, Landry, Stills, Jennings & Jordan Cameron at tight end). Tannehill should have fun with that, though I don't know if he'll be able to take full advantage of Stills given his struggle with the deep ball that also rendered Mike Wallace ineffective. Miller and Ajayi is a decent pairing at tailback, provided they're both healthy, but the Dolphins have the worst offensive line in the NFL which should especially hurt in a division with such loaded defensive lines. Speaking of loaded defensive lines, they have one of their own with Suh, Wake, Vernon and C.J. Mosley. People always talk about QB rankings being Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees then "everyone else". I think the defensive line rankings this year are Rams, Bills, Jets, Dolphins then "everyone else". Those groups are that elite.

I'm not a fan of the rest of the Dolphins defense, though. I think Grimes is very overrated and their linebackers aren't up to par with their defensive line either. I can see them being a team that gives the Patriots a run for the division title or grabs a wild card spot, but I don't agree with the Harvard geeks that they can win the conference. They don't match up well with air raid teams like the Colts, Broncos or Pats. They'd be overwhelmed in multiple playoff games against elite QBs.

 

AV??

 

Don't read into it it too much guys! This is Harvard we're talking about, they're geniuses! Jets in the playoffs this year? I'll take it.

 

As genius as they are they should figure out how to not suck at the college level.

 

To tell you the truth I couldn't care if it was compiled by the Ergonomics Study Course at Tallahassee Juco. I'll take it!

 

*collegiate

 

pro.football.reference uses a measure of football productivity that is based broadly on the system that the SABRmetricians came up with for baseball three decades ago. It looks at all the things that are expected from a position and sees if the player in question has met those criteria. Then it adds value based on things like Pro Bowl selections and All-Pro nods. It gives everybody points for just showing up and starting games. Then it goes from there.

It picks out the best players based on their on-field contributions and then adds in the recognition they get from their peers and the media and the fans.

We know this works because the players who are voted to the Pro Bowl generally have higher AV's before the vote than the players who don't make it. Their scores are then incremented by the honors and you get an appropriate gap between the average guys and the top players.

If you look at the numbers in one season you will occasionally see off-kilter things in the midrange, but never at the high end. Over time the off-kilter things vanish and the great players show up with high AV's while the decent players stay steady.

 

The way not to suck at the college level is to pay the best players to pay for you. That's what the programs that don't suck do for the most part. They pay with scholarships and in other ways that cause NCAA probation when they are revealed.

The Ivy League doesn't give athletic scholarships. They occasionally have a player who is playing sports on scholarship but that's because the player was a scholar who got a scholarship based on academic achievement and financial need but was also an athlete.

 

Thanks. That helps a lot. Does AV stand for "Added Value"?

 

With the Dolphins winning the AFC? Fuck that.

 

Jets in the playoffs? Dolphins in the SB? Boy, Harvard aint what it used to be. They should strip their accreditation after those ridiculous claims

 

If we get a qb rating of at least 80, I think we make the playoffs.

 

Harvard loyal to to Crimson alumni.

Their message is obviously go Fitz!!