From what I understand, we don't owe Fitzpatrick anything. He's in his last year on the Texans contract and all the guaranteed money is out of the way.
Okay, so I was really turned off on Mariota from all of the stuff I was reading and seeing about him. But I decided to stop taking other people's words for it and do some really in depth analysis for myself, given that this is such a franchise changing decision. I know some people don't know where to find game tape, so here: http://draftbreakdown.com/players/marcus-mariota/ (I recommend watching in half speed, it gives you a lot better bearing on what's happening) Things I noticed: (After watching the majority of the games on the site) -The concerns about him only throwing to his first read are horse shit. I wanted no interest in another spread QB who can't go through his progressions, but I found countless incidents of Mariota going through multiple reads, resetting his feet and firing strikes to his 3rd option. I also think he has a very good internal clock. Whereas a guy like Brett Hundley goes through his progressions but is way too slow in doing it, Mariota doesn't necessarily "lock in" to his first option (ala Geno). He's fairly quick in recognizing that a receiver is taken away and intelligently moves on. He also doesn't hesitate to scrap a play and throw the ball away, which is mature and vital in the NFL (though I'd like to see him do it more often). -He's awesome at throwing on the run. I already knew this about him, but he's deadly accurate with great mechanics while on the move. This opens up tons of possibilities for designed roll-outs, bootlegs and the like. It's a good mechanism to have in the offense. -He runs to throw instead of running to run. This is, by far, the most important takeaway I had. The "new age" of running quarterbacks was incredibly overhyped. The guys like Kaepernick and RG3 who scramble around the field when their first read is covered were quickly neutralized. However, the guys who survived are the ones who run not to gain yards, but to open up passing opportunities. Russell Wilson is obviously the posterchild for it, but Rodgers is also great at it as is Andrew Luck. College QB's tend to be accustomed to their athleticism being a safety valve, running around the opposition, and are crippled once they have to face faster players in the NFL. However, Mariota already has the skill of being able to keep his sights downfield while moving outside the pocket, and not dropping his eyes while on the move. No matter what offense he's in, his ability to elude the rush and create passing plays down the field will be extremely helpful whenever he gets put to action. -The accuracy concerns are justified. I saw multiple missed receivers on relatively remedial throws. When he misses, it tends to be behind receivers on crossing routes. This is obviously not a good habit, as this is usually where the defender is playing in a trail technique if they're in man coverage. The ball also sails on him at times when he doesn't reset his feet, but this happens far less often. This is a pretty good concern but he's decently accurate for the most part. -However, his short accuracy is astonishing. The thing about Brady and Manning is that a lot of their throws are actually within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. The reason they are able to conduct such methodical drives is that their ball placement is impeccable, and they always put the football in a spot where the receiver can immediately make a move. Mariota is the same. He always gets the ball on the upfield shoulder and leads the receiver into space. He also displays tremendous touch on screen throws, lofting the ball over leaping defenders and putting the ball right in the basket. His touch in general is also awesome; he's not a pure fastball thrower like Kaepernick and he can sneak the ball in between linebackers and safeties. -The interception numbers are definitely skewed. I saw a lot of very lucky plays where the defender dropped a pick or a deflected ball fell untouched. I think he's less "safe" with the ball than people think, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he came into the league with a turnover problem. He also fumbles too much for my liking. All in all: The perception that the media was piping down my throat was pretty wrong. There are concerns about him, but I think they're for the most part overblown. I wouldn't be at all angry if we spent the 6th pick on him, and I wouldn't even be opposed to trading up a couple spots if the price isn't outlandish. He's not a once in a generation guy, but I think he'll be a very solid starter in this league.
Pretty good analysis. I'll have to watch more footage myself. So far I've mostly just watched highlight videos and draft profile videos (which do break down some pros and cons) so I'd like to get more impressions for myself. From what I've seen I tend to agree with most of what you've said. Haven't paid enough attention to his short pass accuracy just yet, though. I'm still on the fence about him. I wouldn't be terribly excited or upset if we picked him at 6th but I don't like the idea of trading up, especially if it costs us our first in 2016 and change.
Here's a great 2 play sequence that's a pretty good microcosm of everything that calmed my concerns, in case you don't have enough time to watch full game cut-ups. Start at 2:00 in the South Dakota game: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/marcus-mariota-vs-south-dakota-2014/ The first play, he rips the ball between 3 defenders in the middle of the field, then the replay gives you a good look that he also got the ball just over the hand of a leaping defender. The next play is a screen. But the play after is a play action pass. He starts by either holding the safety or going through his progressions (either is a good sign) then quickly shifting his eyes and feet and placing a perfect deep ball into extremely tight coverage. The 2 plays are a good example of him throwing into very tight windows and the latter shows him resetting and picking up a receiver he didn't start on, yet still making an accurate throw.
Excellent analysis. It shows MM is more than a system QB. MM will need some work in his transition to the NFL, he's not some total bust as some believe.
Yup. Here's my favorite type of play from him (he does it a lot). Play is at 1:00. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/marcus-mariota-vs-arizona-2014/ Read 1 is taken away. Read 2 is taken away. Instead of panicking like a typical fast QB and scrambling around the field, he remains calm, steps up into the pocket, then runs parallel to the line of scrimmage, fully conscious of where he is on the field. He keeps his eyes downfield and finds the open guy, then makes a good throw while on the run and puts it right into the receiver's chest. Obviously that ball needs to be caught.
The play right after the one you mentioned is another drop thrown into a very tight window. Nobody should question MM's athletic ability, he is excellent in moving out of the pocket and throwing on the run.
Couldnt watch the whole thing while working, but the play at 2:25 was very nice. Thats where I stopped watching, so I could have easily missed stuff. Up until that, it looked like the same things that everyone says about him. I saw him throwing to wide open receivers time after time and had his eyes locked immediately after getting the ball. Keep in mind, I watched very little of it. The play at two minutes was ok. It was a quick slant and he hit the receiver in stride. He did exactly what he was asked to do, which is a great thing. But he also got his receiver popped. I've been saying for a while he lacks zip on his ball and I thought that slant play showed that off. His play at 2:25 I really liked. He took the snap surveyed the field and looked at multiple options. Threw a perfect pass into tight coverage up the middle. His mechanics looked a little sloppy, but that isnt my concern when it comes to Mariota. I think he's smart enough to figure that stuff out. My concerns are him consistently putting some velocity on the ball, and knowing how to operate in the pocket consistently. These things can be learned in his year off, and hopefully they are.
Great analysis. I quickly ran through the OSU champ game because some troll Buckeye fan here keeps dumping on Mariota about him folding like a cheap lawn chair and I thought that night and I continue to think he played very well that game. His team did him no favors. He had 5 drops and 2 were massive one's early in the game when they could have made a big difference. And as the game got away from them, OSU just pinned their ears back and he got no help. He was constantly looking for second and third and even 4th reads and making accurate throws, his escapability to extend plays and then throw strikes while rolling left and throwing across his body was clearly evident, showed some great touch and a good arm outside the numbers and the play at the 2:41 mark looks exactly like the Winston play against Oregon where he looks off the CB and throws a strike down the middle of the field. Was MM freezing the CB or did he just read it correctly--you can't tell from the sideline shot but it looks exactly like the Winston throw that he was getting massive kudos for. MM should also get those kudos. He made 3-4 bad passes out of 37 attempts. Yeah, I want this guy as my QB. _
That's the SAME throw he made against OSU for a massive TD. In the OSU game the receiver was wide open but MM went through the same read and/or froze the coverage with his eyes. _
I think that game might've been to big for some of the Oregon players. There were a couple drops that were absolutely atrocious that could've changed drives.
Great stuff. I wish more posters did this. Your analysis on him pretty much mirrors mine and every other pro-Mariota posters'. I will add his great feet as another pro. With those feet, taking drops from center should not be a problem. His feet and his ability to throw on the move, which you referenced, is why I think he would project well in a WCO. So even before the coaching changes I thought he'd be a good fit for us with Mornhingweg's O, the real one not mutated version he implemented for Geno's sake. As you, McShay and others have pointed out the intermediate and deep accuracy issues often arise when he has to reset his feet. I think he tends to reset too quickly and doesn't allow proper weight transfer from his lower to upper body, easily correctable IMO. Lastly, the encouraging thing about him is his development from year to year. His 2014 tape is leaps and bounds better than his 2012 tape.
The more and more I watch him the more and more convinced I am that he's the answer. I just rewatched the OSU game--what some will call his worst game ever--and leading an overmatched team the guy was really really good. Going through progressions, making reads, throwing accurately with heat when required and touch when need be. _
Great Post, and as for Mariota's accuracy concerns, I've noticed that many off his "whiffs" are due to poor mechanics, such as not finishing though a drive. I believe his accuracy concerns are mechanical flaws, that NFL coaching should be able to clean up fairly easily. And your first paragraph is magnificent. .. I've been trying to tell posters here over the last few weeks, that Mariota does have to go through progressions and I've given numerous examples of him throwing pro concepts. Unfortunately, draft season is a season where the media "nitpicks" players and create BS to stir the pot.
Mariota was excellent in the OSU game, and I've heard some of the better "experts" acknowledge this on NFl Network on Path to the Draft. The Rose Bowl was a terrible performance, but in the OSU game you see instances of Mariota throwing WRS Open and you also see him throw "pro concepts " and I believe a poster here posted an example of this a week ago. IMO , I believe Mariota is being unfairly judged, because of the failures of other spread Quarterbacks; eventually a spread QB is going to succeed in the NFL and when he does the perception of Spread Quarterbacks will be forever changed.
I have to know, if the Jets do draft Marcus Mariota and he doesn't work out, will the same people who have been carrying his underwear on a flagpole be the people who resemble nyjunc defending Mark Sanchez? I can't see into the future but the idea seems plausible
I don't think so..I'm probably one of those you describe and I want the Jets to get him not because I think he will be good but because I hope he will be good..the alternative is what we have had for the last 6 years, qbs that suck and the chances of getting a franchise qb in the second, third or fourth round is not good..it happens but not often and the next time we will be picking 6 is a time I hope I never see.
I'm sure there will be some people who defend Mariota irrationally, if he doesn't work out. I personally won't , I've been wrong in the past many many times, and the chances of Mariota are fairly high, but I'm still willing to take a shot on him.
