Just watched ch 7....Jeff smith says things get tricky,,,,,,yada yada,,,but he also says 3 to 6 for me
Posting this on my site now but will throw it hear first...a discussion from NWS...and yeah Drew..really concerned about the icing potential for all involved. This is one of those storms I would rather get the 8 inches of snow even if I hated it. CBG...not until around 1pm tomorrow will your numbers..and FJF numbers be better nailed down. 6 to 9 for FJF seems conservative..and 4 to 7 for you..but again...give it 12 more hours. THIS FROM THE NWS...and again..its the long duration of icing that concerns me: A LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION COULD HAVE FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
Because of all the concrete...the location of the city itself on the water...for the most part NYC seems to escape heavy icing and my biggest concerns are for the Bronx/Brooklyn right now...now..every so often the perfect circumstances lead up to icing everywhere. Here is the problem...and here is a way out for it not to happen. Unlike every storm this year, where the snow line stops and the icing begins is also where the liquid precip numbers get cut almost in half. While the Northern part of the Lower Hudson Valley which could be mostly snow is getting .8 to 1.0 liquid precip..or 8 to 10 inches of snow, parts of NNJ are cut back to .5 liquid precip and I think thats what the pros are seeing as the saving grace behind an all out ice storm for our area....which could be a valid point. My problem with that thinking is for me, anything over .3 inches of freezing rain becomes very dangerous....its the number that when hit breaks tree limbs and a bit higher, snaps power lines. IM NOT SAYING TO RUN OUT and get the generators in place...because I think Im alone on and island with this major icing thing. It just kind of cracks me up how weather people (me included some times) rush to get out the over 1 foot numbers of snow but dont sit back and say hey...this could be a really bad icing thing too. Ice storms dont sell papers until they happen...because if you think snow storms have high bust percentages..double it for ice storms. If it freezing rains too hard it becomes less of a problem because of mostly run off. Its those ice storms where the precip is mostly light..or even worse...drizzle..that become the real bad ones...and I see that kind of precip falling for parts of NJ and the city. So...we shall see....if I were part of the National Weather Service, I would have a potential severe ice outlook out there...but they have nothing besides that little paragraph I posted.
This must be what its like living next to JohnnyD http://holykaw.alltop.com/neighbor-epic-freakout-snow-property-video?gk4
Unless Jay comes on here later and tells us this thing is moving more south ( as I and other snow lovers wanted ) everything I am reading and hearing suggest that the the snow line will be by you FJF ,,,,,,it appears my neck of the woods will get some snow but it looks to be a lot of freezing rain ad ice,,,,,hope I am mistaken but ugh,,hate ice ,,,love snow,,,,what says you Jayster ?
Think the snow line will move south of you by morning CBG...and the real important thing to realize, once you get south of the heavier precip...our areas on south, it will not be a huge snow producer. FJF is close...you are real borderline..but those south of you that end up with snow? This will be a light to moderate producer at best. Its the ice..which needs very little precip to create a problem. Checking models now
Amazing thing about the air masses that are over all of us right now...upper 20s in the Lower Hudson Valley....31 by me in North Jersey....56 in philly....50s on south jersey.
FJF..forgot to post about you last night but right now your 4 to 8pm thing looks fine...looks like precip doesnt really get rolling for most until after 10pm
The southern trend continues..and if thats the case personally? Im thrilled..it pushes the ice axis south and puts a decent amount of NNJ into the snow area. That would INCREASE the chances of ice in the city though..and I personally put little trust in it. The most important part to remember about this storm is this...areas south of where the big snows end..lets say around the lower hudson valley...the liquid precip numbers go down too. LOWER PRECIP NUMBERS ARE MORE DANGEROUS in an ice storm set up. The lighter the freezing rain falls..the more dangerous. It allows the it to pile on top of each other and not wash away. Thats what has me really concerned and somewhere between Philly and I80, a severe ice situation will set up.
Looks like a miss for us out here in Central PA Jay. I'm good with that as I'm ready for spring now.. Fishing season awaits!
Please FJF..dont do it to me...I was praying nobody would ask about it. It popped up on the models yesterday afternoon and is sinking south right now..most larger numbers are just north of you and not until this storm gets its act together will the models grasp the POTENTIAL FOR A MILLER B....B....B....B....B storm. I really cant take this winter much longer. Now...around the 16th, I see a potential MILLER A...and would love to just take a week off until that begins to be tracked. But yes FJF...a potential MILLER B that was not on the radar until late yesterday...less then 20 percent chance...I HOPE
This is the warm up CBG...unless the back fill on the radar continues for those of you up north...will check it out now.
