I have consistently stated 3-4 seasons as at least a 50% starter, 4-5 seasons if he's less than a 50% starter before you really have a good idea who most QB's are, the stars usually start shining in their 2nd or 3rd year...by the time a QB is in his 4th season you have enough data both statistical and observational, to tell pretty much what you have. what you want to see during that time is a steady learning curve where the QB is no longer making the mistakes that they were making in their rookie season. And that was Sanchez's issue with the Jets, he wasn't progressing, he was still making the same stupid mistakes in his 4th year that he was making in his first year, much like Jay Cutler who has in my opinion a more dynamic arm than Sanchez but makes the same bone headed mistakes Sanchez makes that costs him. Take the Butt fumble for example....it's not the fact that he ran in to his linemans ass that makes that play so emblematic of Sanchez's career with the Jets, though it did make it at least a laughable example. No, it was what led up to him running in to his linemans ass that was emblematic of Sanchez's play. He gets a bad snap, he panics. He scoops up the ball and in panic mode runs unthinkingly in towards the line carrying the ball in his hand like a purse. This is problem #1. If you're going to carry the ball like that run out towards the sideline where you have a chance of maybe making a couple yards or running out of bounds to save a hit. OR if you are going to run towards the line carry the ball tucked away and then slide near the line. Sanchez did neither, in a panic mode he lost track of the situation and ran towards the line without securing the ball and slid late. This is all indicative to someone who, after 4 years as a starter, the game still hadn't slowed down for...it was a rookie mistake and one that Sanchez did all too often over the years, the panic part not the running in to the ass part. And this leads me to the single thing in yesterdays game that most impressed me about Sanchez and made me think that maybe, just maybe, the game is slowing down for him finally...when he had a bad snap from center that resulted in a fumble what did he do? He fell on the ball despite no one being immediately around him. He didn't panic, he didn't do anything stupid, he covered the ball, he protected the ball and said we'll live to fight on the next play. He did the RIGHT THING.... he has to keep doing the right thing, because at times with the Jets he did do the right thing and then fall back in to the bad decisions and fall in to panic mode. But that was, despite a couple of very nice throws, the single thing that most impressed me.
Since you are big on stats, are the following first 4 years numbers those of a "good QB [that] raises the quality of his team...a bad QB [that] lowers the quality of his teams play or a JAG..."? 1,805 passes, 987 complete, 54.7, 11,385 yards, 77 TD, 64 INT, 73.4 Rat
They're not drafted to be JAGS, no. But often that's what they turn out to be, at best. No one drafts a player at #5 saying this guys going to be a JAG...No one drafts anyone in the first round saying this guys just going to be a JAG...but in reality the talent level between a first round pick and a 5th round pick is, with a few exceptions, pretty minimal..the difference is how polished they are and how they are viewed as in regards to the likelihood of them reaching their potential. Most mid round picks aren't first round picks just because they are viewed as needing more coaching up or have holes in their games, physically (again in most cases) there's not a big difference. You can still get a guy at 6'4 who runs a great 40 time, but their routes may not be good or they may have injury or off the field issues or they get downgraded because the school doesn't run a pro style offense or they played at a small school or lower conference. You will never hear me say that Sanchez doesn't have a good arm, doesn't have good mobility...you will hear me question his decision making and his accuracy and ability to read defenses. Two of those 3 things a Kelly offense relieves Sanchez of, he doesn't need to read defenses as a play develops because most of the pass plays are pre determined timing routes, not all but most and that limits Sanchez's two biggest flaws.
It would have to be contextualized. on a year by year basis. Did the player have a bad first year, and then improve through the next few seasons? I'm a big stats man, but I never work with stats without context.
But I'm willing to bet your talking about Eli Manning since the 77 TD 64 Int matches up, that and he's always the fall back guy for the Sanchez argument.
re-watching him on GR since I didn't get to see most of the CAR game. watching games from 2012 and his time in philly is like night and day. the biggest thing? he's comfortable. he's got a great O-line and loads of time in the pocket more often than not, and receivers (especially matthews) who he can trust. The burden's he carried in NY are nowhere to be found thanks to his supporting cast. Thats not to say HE hasn't gotten better, he has. his passes are more accurate and have better overall zip, his form looks fine, wether by Kelly and co.'s coaching or whatever he looks better for his own part than he did here. Now wether or not this is SUSTAINABLE shall remain to be seen, a confident sanchez is a good QB indeed, but I just gotta wait to see that come back down to earth moment, just to see how he responds before I can anoint him. As is, he's a valuable backup, anything more needs more time to be believed. I'm actually kind of happy for him, I never hated the guy so I guess that helps, but yeah he looks good through a combination of factors.
Year 1 95 CMP 197 ATT 48.2 CMP% 1,043 YDS 6 TDs 9 INTs 55.4 RAT Year 2 294 CMP 557 ATT 52.8 CMP% 3,762 YDS 24 TDs 17 INTs 75.9 RAT Year 3 301 CMP 522 ATT 57.7 CMP% 3,244 YDS 24 TDs 18 INTs 77.0 RAT Year 4 297 CMP 529 ATT 56.1 CMP% 3,336 YDS 23 TDs 20 INTs 73.9 RAT
All that other stuff can change in the face of pressure but the bold is the most glaring difference between 2012 and 2014.
yeah, agreed. I dont' remember that last year during the preseason certainly. a change of place helped him in all regards.
wait, you said HARDER, not better… hm, maybe the shoulder injury had something to do with that? like he needed a new release and this ones better? I don't know….
Huh? I was just talking about what I think about Sanchez and the situation he's in now, not about the plan for the Jets should be. Just cause you can't carry an offense doesn't mean you are an automatic failure at the NFL level. There have been cases where quarterbacks have been to or even won Super Bowls that never carried their offense. Look you draft a guy hoping he can be that franchise quarterback, but its really unknown until you put him out there on the field and see what happens. Having a good system and talent around the quarterback to ease him into the NFL game can help tremendously with development, but it really comes down to if that guy has that "it" factor about him. Teams that are consistently successful (making the playoffs and winning championships) tend to have that kind of quarterback on their team. Unfortunately for the Jets they do not have that guy at the moment and it has eluded us for so many years now.
And has been addressed, in those previous arguments. as far as comparing the two? Well if you go by Junc's standards Manning had won a superbowl by his 4th year...but that was a team thing and not a manning thing. Manning to me is a JAG, unlike his his brother. Eli doesn't elevate the players around him, and while he does turn the ball over he was still 1.2 on his turnover to TD rate, which is borderline acceptable. Sanchez (and right now since you only mentioned passing we'll stick with that) was at a 0.98 touchdown to turnover rate. Clear advantage to Eli. Eli Interception rate his first 4 years were 4.6, 3.1, 3.4, 3.8 Mark's rate for his first 4 years were 5.5, 2.6, 3.3, 4.0. So in 1 year mark was markedly worse in their first seasons and slightly worse in the 4th. He was markedly better in the second (which I consider to be Marks 1 acceptable year) and 1 essentially even year with .1 advantage to mark. Overall a slight advantage to Eli, but not much. Eli's TD rate for his first 4 years were 3.0, 4.3, 4.6 and 4.3 Sanchez TD rate e for his first 4 years 3.3, 3.4, 4.8, 2.9 Here Mark has a slight edge in year 1, and a slight edge in year 3, Eli has a big edge in years 2 and 4. Overall a big advantage to Eli. Eli's completion percentage his first 4 years 48.2, 52.8, 57.7, 56.1 Mark's completion percentage his first 4 years 53.8, 54.8, 56.7, 54.3 advantage mark his first two seasons by a wide margin, pretty similar the last two seasons overall advantage mark. But here's the thing, Mark always stayed within 3% of his rookie season, he wasn't progressing. Manning on the other hand by his 4th season was a full 8% better than his rookie season, and 4% better than his 2nd season, despite having fallen off slightly from his third season. Where as Mark in his 4th season was within 0.5% of his rookie year...3% difference on completion % from year to year is statistical noise. And this is where the context comes in to play. Yes when you look at the two QB's total stats for their first 4 years they look pretty similar. But the Context is in how they came to those totals. For Sanchez he had 1 year where he spiked far above his normal TD%, a full 41% better than his next best season, where as Manning after his rookie season was consistantly in the 4.3-4.6% range, or a variance from high to low of only 7% (that's 4.6/4.3) in interception percentage again Sanchez had one year that spiked way down to 2.9% in his 2nd year, a full 27% lower than his next best season. Eli on the other hand after his rookie season his best ratio was only 9% better than his next best season, and again Eli was consistently in the 3.1-3.8 range while Sanchez fluctuated between 2.6 and 4.0 The fact is overall Eli was progressing and improving over his rookie season, Sanchez just kind of hung out around his rookie season, yes he had a 1 year spike that was way out of the norm in TD's and another year where he had a 1 year spike where he was way under in interceptions...but it wasn't consistent, it was erratic and it always returned to the overall inferior baseline. Now if you want I can go in to detail on comparing their stats on situational basis year by year, but you'll have to wait for awhile on that because that level an analysis takes even more time.
I was asking you for what should you think we should do? One of the common criticism of Sanchez was that he was not and could not be that ever so elusive "carry an offense" QB. Should we keep drafting QBs putting them on the field and cutting them once we realize they don't have "it". Or can we be satisfied with a guy that can get us to the Bowl with a good system and talent around him.
To help people get a better feel for Chip Kelly's "quarterback friendly" scheme that seems to be benefiting Mark Sanchez, here is a video where Kelly uses the all-22 video of the game against Chicago last year to break down a running play, a passing play - with a simple triangle-shaped 1-2-3 progression - a defensive play showing an A-gap blitz, and a special teams fumble recovery where Kelly explains the difference between a "city ball" and a "country ball". http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/v...-Week-17/1039b877-e941-46da-b731-55a035d2792c And here is a video of Kelly breaking down the first Sanchez-to-Matthews touchdown pass against Houston, along with a run defense play and a pass defense play. http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/v...-Week-10/d38c5b25-b4d3-41ab-b3d4-4ba45d4ccad9
