I went back and looked at every QB drafted in the first round since 1996, and every QB currently starting in the league. What I took away from that is something most of us know already: Drafting a QB is very hit or miss. The likelihood of getting a legitimate franchise QB is under 50% each time you draft one. There are a myriad of reasons that that a QB does not develop into a franchise guy, and it's extremely difficult to predict who will and won't. That being said, I have no problem with the Jets drafting a QB in 2015. Considering the rate of failure, and the importance of the position, I really feel like there's no reason not to draft one relatively frequently. Is it possible Geno rises to the occasion, and authoritatively makes it known he is the man for this job? Yes, of course it is possible. Based on the fact that it is pretty unlikely, I'd be ready to draft another QB. It could be the first round, or second, either way is fine. So long as the front office likes what they see and feel that they are justified taking him wherever they do. The good news is that we may have a good shot of selecting pretty much whoever we want. With 5 QB's taken in the first 2 rounds in 2014, many of the teams who need franchise QB's are going to be testing the guys on their current rosters. The Rams may be looking for a guy, the Titans may be looking for a guy, and the Bills may be looking for a guy. There's a chance the Rams will ride with Austin Davis, and there's a chance the Titans will role with Locker. Locker is talented, he just can't seem to stay healthy. Either way, it's possible all 3 of these teams wait until a little later to take a guy, with the options they have. That being said, guys like Mariota might very well be there for the taking. It's not impossible, depending on where we are drafting,for us to be able to take a guy like Mariota early and make a move back into the first round for a big time WR. This is all early speculation, but speculating about our current season does make me a little depressed. We'll see what happens with Geno and our draft position, and whether Rex can pull out a ridiculous coaching season. If we do end up with a new coach, I hope whoever runs the defense is comfortable running a 3-4. I guess I wouldn't be heartbroken if we transitioned to a 4-3, but if that were the case we'd probably have to move Snacks for draft picks.
The only pattern I have found in finding a great QB is to take the QB that didn't have a ton of talent around him in college. Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Rivers, Ryan. Even just compare the 3 QB's starting from the 2013 draft. Manuel - Ton of talent at FSU when he played. Has looked horrible Geno - Great talent at WR at WVU. Has looked horrible with bad receivers. Glennon - Not a ton of talent at NC State. Give him Evans and Jackson and he looks awesome right now. QB's statistics are just so often based off of everything else going on, on the team. It makes it extremely difficult to really analyze a QB and how they will do in the NFL. When I look at Amari Cooper at WR, I know for a fact he will be a future pro-bowler in the NFL. No doubt about it. I look at Mariotta though and it's hard to know. Is the talent around him inflating his stats, or is he really that good. Then you have to add in the fact that these QB's in college now are playing backyard football spread offense and trying to figure out who is good and who is not is pretty much rocket science.
Franchise QB is much talked about, but few exist. We'd be much better off building a solid team who any QB would have consistent success with. Every QB taken in the first round, someone thought was "the guy", it doesn't happen often. Sanchez got us within a game of the prize twice, he had a very good team around him, when the talent left, so did Mark as "The guy".
Max, this is similar to the year we drafted Geno. There were a handful of QBs that put up good numbers early, and then revealed themselves later in the season. It's early October. I'm resigned to the idea that this year will be a letdown for college QBs in the long run, but if some amazing prospect emerges, we'll probably be in prime position to get him... assuming that we don't pull the lame effort of winning against the weak portion of our schedule and smack a couple of division rivals in the process, which is always likely. Why sell out for a weak QB class? We've been doing it for decades.
Projecting the QB position at the next level (from college to the pros) is the ultimate crapshoot for scouts and talent evaluators. The Jets either need a good veteran FA QB for next year or a draft pick. Their new scouting dept. (hopefully) should be tracking the top college guys around the country.
The real question is, why the fuck didn't we take Bridgewater, who it could be argued had better game-tape than friggin Luck (obviously against weaker competition)? Because of a bad pro day? Seriously? I couldn't believe the kid fell to 32. The Vikings got a steal.
People put way to much stock into combines and pro days and don't focus enough on game film. That's one of the only explanations I can give for why a guy like Bridgewater fell.
It really has come to that. Had a guy here calling Geno dumb with basically nothing more than the black card the other day. Idk if Jamarcus Russell scared teams away or what, but unless NFL scouts/teams are polygenesists, that shouldn't be a problem.
I don't entirely disagree but it's not an assumption I'm willing to make. I really don't know much about Mariota, I have watched maybe one game of his so far. Cooper has looked great but I'm not going to assume he's all that yet. People are always ready to give credit to guys before it's due, this time last year everyone thought Marqise Lee was "the guy" so I'll wait and see. I'm not really sure I buy into the "weak QB class" theory. People said 2008 was a weak class with Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco being the only two big time guys, and that worked out pretty well go the Falcons and Ravens. Like I said I went back and really hashed out all the QB draftees from over the years, and I see nothing to indicate a higher percentage of success from QB's taken in "strong" QB drafts. In reality, 2009 was generally considered a solid draft year for QB's at the time. 1999 is another perfect example, with 5 QB's taken in the top 12 picks, only 2 were any good.
If you are drafting a young QB that isnt a Luck type, you need to have a solid team in place already. I look at Wilson and Kaepernick. Both are fine young QB's. Have a lot of skill. But I also wonder how they would look here. Or on a team like Oakland or Jacksonville. They'd most likely be going through the same type of struggles that Geno is facing now. These two benefited tremendously by being drafted by the teams they were drafted by. Thats why its unfair to say.."we could've had Wilson if our GM knew what he was doing"..well yeah we could've. But would we be getting the Russell Wilson that Seattle got? Probably not.
Bridgewater was my favorite QB in the draft without a doubt, but we didn't draft him because we had to see what we had in Geno. Also, let's not get ahead of ourselves, Bridgewater has started one game and it was against possibly the worst defense in the NFL. We still need to see a lot from him before we can know much of anything.
Very good points all around half the good quarterbacks succeed because of the teams they fall into... it seems like anyone here is set up to fail and that starts with the core of the team
This year more than ever it's been much easier to distinguish the root cause of Mariota's stats as him being that good. His o-line is completely decimated which in turn is making the vaunted Oregon rushing attack look average at best. His receiving threats have never been elite; that hasn't changed.
I don't disagree with the sentiment. I will say however that we are only a couple pieces away from having a very solid team everywhere other than QB. With a lot of investment into the defense and a ton of cap space, it's very reasonable to believe we can have a pretty complete, if young, team around that drafted QB.
What about someone like Kirk Cousins??? He'll go back to the Redskins bench once RG3 comes back. He has a good arm and a lot of talent just needs some more experience.
I was down in Tennessee not long ago, apparently they love Mettenberger down there. Can't see them drafting a QB with Locker and Mett waiting in the wings. _
