We just don't know what's going to happen with Geno yet. He could come through or he could wind up buried on the depth chart. I agree that if Geno fails the next QB will be key in how Idzik is perceived. The Jets have not been lucky with QB's over the history of the franchise and changing that is the biggest challenge facing Idzik at this point. You can't force things with a young QB. Going and getting Josh Gordon would have been a disaster for the Jets. Trading up for Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans would have been a likely disaster in the making. You have to let things come to you and get a bit lucky in the process. The depth that the Jets are beginning to accumulate is a very good thing for us. It makes Lady Luck work in our favor some instead of kicking us in the shins repeatedly.
I don't feel like it lol But its a long list of great quarterbacks including Tom Brady and Russell Wilson
A long list...*names two* Those are exceptions not the rule. Teams have trouble hitting on FIRST round QBs let alone late round ones. C'mon!
Brees was the first pick in the 2nd round and was 13 years ago. I remember hearing about how the Jets wanted Favre but Atlanta sniped us or something like that. Sure, you have guys like Kurt Warner, Warren Moon, Jeff Garcia who were older and played elsewhere before earning a chance and succeeding in the NFL. In 40 years, you would be shocked how few success stories there are. It's easy to remember the exceptions but how about the dozens and dozens and dozens of busts?
This is true across the board though. Since the 7 round draft was initiated in 1994 there have been 20 QB's taken in the top 3 of the NFL draft and none of them not named Manning have won a Super Bowl in that span. The draft is a lottery in every aspect. 34 QB's taken in the 6th round have won 3 Super Bowls (all Tom Brady). 20 taken in the top 3 have won 3 Super Bowls (all Mannings).
It's really not that big of a lottery, focusing on just the top three like that (while lumping Peyton and Eli together as one) and comparing that to really just Tom Brady like you did is misleading. -56% of Superbowl Winning QBs have been selected in the 1st round -74% of Superbowl Winning QBs were selected in round 3 or higher. Only 8 QBs in the history of the game selected below round 3 have ever won a SB and of them you have guys like Rypien, Brad Johnson, Joe Theismann, Bart Starr, that weren't really that good, just carried there by great teams. Staubach is in that group and he really isn't your typical late round pick, he was selected late because of his naval obligations, he'd been a first rounder without that.. That really only leaves you with Tom Brady, Johnny Unitas and Kurt Warner, who I think we'd all agree are about as rare specimens as it gets. Good luck trying to stumble onto one of them.... It's not even just SBs where higher drafted QBs tend stand out. Statistically, among all QBs (SB winning or not) those drafted higher are way better as well.
The point was that with the pick of the litter you were no more likely to win a Super Bowl recently than with a guy who fell to you in the 6th round. Not sure how you missed that. I did a post a couple of years ago that pointed out that the top 36 is where you want to be for winning Super Bowls. Then Russell Wilson won a Super Bowl almost immediately and added a counterpoint to what appeared to be a really solid limitation in terms of talent and Super Bowls won. Think about this though. 44% of all Super Bowls have been won by QB's that every team passed on at least once. A quarter by guys that everybody passed on multiple times. It is however a huge lottery. If you pick the best QB in the draft on the #1 pick you have just as much of a chance of coming up with a useless player who essentially sinks your franchise as you do of coming up with a competent QB. Your odds on coming up with a Super Bowl champion are very low. Before the free agency/cap era you had a somewhat better chance of turning the #1 pick into championships but that was primarily because you could keep all the good players you drafted and if you were good enough to find a good QB the odds were you were also good enough to find talent to surround and support him. Andrew Luck is going to have a much harder row to hoe than Terry Bradshaw did because the Colts are going to have to pick and choose who to keep whereas the Steelers could just keep accumulating talent until they got over the top.
But you are more likely to win the SB with a higher drafted QB, I think that's what I've shown. Your original post was about one guy, one guy in the game's history who people happened to overlook. As for your number 1 pick argument, you definitely have a better chance of coming up with a competent QB, as opposed to a useless player that sinks for franchise, that's silly to suggest you have just as much of a chance either way. Even if Houston took Teddy Bridgewater for example who ended up 32nd this year with the number 1, the odds favor that he'd at least be a competent NFL QB, better so than him becoming a bust. It's not a 50/50 shot in the dark, generally the consensus is more often right and the better players are selected higher. Its not a complete crapshoot. As for your last argument, having a salary cap limits the playing field more than in the past, but in turn that makes every team watered down with weaknesses, so I kind of think it evens out. It's easier overall to win a SB now than it was in the 70s- even easier with a good QB. I don't think anyone would suggest having that weakness at QB is a good idea or that the Colts would be better off without Andrew Luck. Basically, you either have to get incredibly lucky with late round picks or go out and get a great QB and fill in what you can around him. The second model is actually easier to replicate than the first model. The Jets swung and missed on Sanchez, but that doesn't mean taking that swing was the wrong decision. Lining up again and taking your chance is actually a better decision than trying to do it the Seattle way for example or the NE way (prior to Brady falling in their laps)
What percentage of say, 3rd round QB's, would become acceptable NFL starters if the organization was all-in on making that happen? I think the percentage is much higher than we generally believe it to be. I'm not sure from a pure competence point of view that you're much more likely to get a competent QB in the 1st than in the 3rd. Star potential is a different matter. How the organization views a player and what they are willing to do to see him succeed is a very under-rated and misunderstood proposition. Terry Bradshaw never takes the Steelers to 4 Super Bowls if he was a 3rd round pick and performed the way he did in his first couple of seasons. He'd never have gotten the chance to play through adversity and eventually become a championship QB. His immediate predecessor was Terry Hanratty, a 2nd round pick the year before him who didn't show enough to forestall the drafting of Bradshaw #1 overall in 1970. Whatever Hanratty did after that wasn't going to be enough to hold off the #1 overall pick because the Steelers were invested in Bradshaw in a way that he had to be the guy for them even if it took several years to happen.
Lol... I'll never get over the fact that Terry Bradshaw was stuck on the bench for two years at Louisiana Tech behind that old hick from Duck Dynasty.
I like Idzik, I just wish he was our cap manager instead of the GM. You would think after T-baum, Woody would have learned his lesson: Get a real GM and abandon the idea of promoting a glorified cap guru to make your talent evaluations and personnel decisions.
Looking at our current rosters talent base relative to our cap position and comparing it to past rosters and I like to think that Idzik has done a phenomenal job in "phase 1" of our rebuild. Now and moving forward is where good gm's are separated from great one's. The next couple of years should show us exactly what we have with Idzik.
There've been a lot of threads where that theory on Idzik has been discussed. He has much more talent evaluation experience than many seem to think- he has experience in scouting talent AND cap management.
What decisions haven't you liked? Not to say they've all been good, I still think letting Slauson/Howard go were questionable along with possibly not bringing back one of the two starting 2012 safeties were questionable choices. Either way he's had to make some tough choices and considering we went 8-8 last year despite being under the cap by $20 million is pretty impressive.
me thinks having the large cap space is giving idzik a bit of a cushion when strictly evaluating his current body of work. the drafts are still incomplete aside from hitting the jackpot with richardson and likely pryor. i do not like the middle round selections of his 2 drafts but that could change with time. free agency appears to have been OK except for the CB position. no one can tell me we are OK going into the season at CB. It needed to be addressed in FA and wasn't.
Idzik is a joke. Rex is a joke as a draft advisor. He only cares about one side of the ball. Mcdougle was a reach even if healthy. Now he's done for the year with the ACL. What a waste of a 3rd round pick.
