Jeremy Kerley has been the most reliable WR on the team for the last two years. despite QB struggles from Sanchez and Smith he's managed to make nearly every grab he was reasonably expected to and has all but earned a new deal as a result of his quality play. the question is WHEN and for HOW MUCH? Kerely is a precise route runner with fine hands and a good enough amount football speed and IQ to warrant using him prominently but he's not uncatchable in space or incredibly agile. He's good enough to want to see more of, but he's not a Victor Cruz, and he shouldn't be paid like one. Finding the level of which he should paid is a difficult venture given a lack of viable comparison's to him elsewhere. Is there another player of kerely's stature out there to base his new deal off of? also, the timing of a new deal might be off, not that the team will be cap strapped by him anytime soon, but is it best to lock him up after another season or right this second in fear of his value increasing or him falling to free agency? In my eyes a 4-5 million a year sounds about right. this is a guy we can really use aboard the roster for another few years. he's not worth a decker deal, really his guarantees should only keep him aboard for an additional year or so at worst, but given what he's been able to do the last few years it'd be nice to have the soon to be 26 year old locked up for the duration of his prime. I'm expecting him to be extended mid season. Contract Projection: 3 years 13.5 million, 5.5 million guaranteed in a signing bonus.
I would not be surprised if Kerley goes to another team once his contract is up. He is a good player, but because of the salary cap in the NFL today, smart teams really have to pick and choose where they commit their money. My hunch (and I could be completely wrong) is that Idzik will not want to commit several million a year on a slot receiver when you can have someone play that role on a rookie contract for next to nothing. I think that's one of the reasons they drafted Jalen Saunders this year, to potentially replace Kerley in the slot. Slot receiver can be important of course, but overall, there are many more valuable positions for which you have to pay major money, so it makes sense to try to get a discount at the slot. On top of that, considering our quarterbacks (Geno in particular), the strength is throwing the deep ball to wide open speedy guys or large guys who can bring it in. Throwing many shorter accurate passes (where Kerley can figure more) ala Tom Brady is not Geno's forte unless he really improves that area of his game by miles, so this makes Kerley a bit less important too, in my opinion.
Agree about Saunders. I think Kerley gets resigned unless we find someone who can step up in his role right away, but if Saunders can be it (he's certainly looking the part in OTAs), than Kerley will be on his way. Where I do disagree is that a guy like Kerley isn't important. He might not be the guy a defense has to game plan around, but a guy with good hands who you can rely upon to move the chains is absurdly underrated by most people. That is until you have a stone hand WR who kills drives for you.
If Kerley wants to make $4-5 million a year, I think he's doing it somewhere else. I think Saunders' presence spells the writing on the wall for Kerley. The Jets would take him back on the right deal IMO, but I think they'd want him around $3M per. Andrew Hawkins just got 4/$13M from Cleveland, though it was frontloaded so the first 2 years were worth about $10M so the Bengals wouldn't match the offer sheet. Kerley is a little taller, but he's not as explosive. I think he'll end up getting a similar deal. If he wants more, he'll go elsewhere.
Let's wait and see how the year goes. If Saunders or Evans play well I have no quarry with letting Kerley go, especially if he wants in the ballpark of 5-6M per.
Saunders would have to play at a particularly high level IMMEDIATELY to make JK expendable. that or kerley would have to ask for money competing with that of deckers average salary, I like him but screw that. in the case of an average rookie effort across the board I don't think the Jets are in any condition to let a sure talent at WR go in 2015 in the hopes somebody steps up his place. Yeah sure competition mantra and all that, but the WR corps needs all the talent it can get, and Smith/2015 rookie needs all the help from his receivers that he can get. Reliability counts, we've spent the last couple of years HOPING something pans out and it hasn't helped the team in the meanwhile, if theres ever any doubt don't move on and hope sophomore players show up and contribute to save a few million, we've got plenty of money to lock up anchors like JK. at least when the jets tried this with Scott and Cromartie they had shown signs of decline beforehand. Though with that in mind, i suppose the idea of letting things play out to be sure the jets are getting the best value is given credence. If Kerley blows it or gets hurt... sure. but thats a unlikely event.
Kerley has played well for us lately, and he will understandably want to turn that into a nice contract. Some team out there will probably offer it to him. It's not that slot receivers aren't important, they are, it's just that when you are stuck with a low salary cap, you can't afford a high quality player at every position (unless you really get lucky with the draft), so you have to choose. Unlike outside WRs, slot receivers don't need speed (since they run short routes inside), or size (since they can't really be blanketed or pressed by corners). Because of this, it's relatively easy to get a decent slot receiver. Think of our own recent history, we usually seem to have good slot receivers (Chrebet, Cotchery, Kerley, etc). So with that being the case, it really wouldn't be wise to lock in several million of the salary cap into a guy who you have a good chance to find a replacement for. Also, as I was saying, slot receivers have somewhat less value to our team, because we run a lot, and when we throw, Geno's best throws aren't tight highly accurate short passes to the slot, but rather deep bombs to a streaking outside WR or a TE.
We have a lot of cap space and we are not going to try to sign one our best Recievers???? Not happening.
They'd better not do what they did with Mark where they had a revolving door at receiver each year. We need some continuity at the skill positions on offense and let these young players grow together.
We better not let Kerley go. 4 to 5 Mil isn't THAT much for one of your better receivers on the team, your best slot receiver. Saunders hasn't proved anything as far as I am concerned. The cap is increasing, no excuse not to keep Kerley for 4M a season. Comparing Kerley to Andrew Hawkins? Really dude? Kerley is a better receiver, it's not even close. I'm rather disappointed in fans that are looking to be cheap and let one of our reliable options leave via FA. Very. You guys want the Jets to win right?
I doubt kerley even gets close to 5-6 mill. Being the best option on a offense as pathetic as ours the last two years is not a big deal. Kerleys numbers have not earned a mid level contract. Not to mention he missed 4 games last season with a concussion and if i remember correctly he missed a few in 2011 also. He is closer to the 3-4 mill avg per year on a 4-5 year deal. 10-11 mill over 4 years maybe 5-6mill guaranteed. If he even gets that much it will mostly be due to him being a fan fav or he has a jump out year in 2014,
Izzy will have to pick and chose wisely which stars he's willing to back the Brinks up for. All the rest will be replaced with incoming talent (or a low ball offers) as their contracts are up. Teams don't have the luxury of waiting until you have a tried and true next man up before making a move. My guess is Izzy will tag about 1/3 of our favorite players (Sheldon, Mo, Kerley possibly) but the rest will play at a fair price or be replaced by a Rookie. Welcome to the John Idzik Show.
You have to factor in a comp pick when thinking what might happen. Having the extra money plus a 5th/6th round pick might be worth it if another receiver show the capability to play the slot.too early to say now but it will factor into the decision
This. Idzik is saving up cap space for a reason. Yes the WR market is stacked next year and I'm sure Idzik is aware of it. Yes I'm sure we would all much rather toss money at a big name WR and call it a day. But I would venture to guess Idzik's first priority will be to reward the homegrown talent. Mo and Kerley. Sidenote, it's really too bad we don't have a "Larry" anywhere.
The Jets just drafted a guy who is going to play in the slot a lot in Jace Amaro. I think for Kerley to come back at this point he'll need to have a good non-injury interrupted year that includes substantial snaps outside. Even then if he's looking for a big deal he'll probably move on. He's the kind of guy the Jets might get a good comp pick out of when he moves on.
Only if we lose more free agents than we take in, which isn't a given. We could definitely get a 4th/5th out of him, though, which would be nice. I'd rather sign the guy to a reasonable extension, though, assuming Saunders or another drafted WR doesn't immediately match Kerley's production. Geno and Kerley clearly have some sort of connection and we need to have consistent WRs for our young Qb, as we all learned during the Sanchez era.
