I'd sure like that, but with Brady, I'm nervous. I think a lot will depend on our pass rush and run game.
The Patriots are in that weird state right now where I could see them going anywhere from 7-9 to 12-4. They went 12-4 last year but they also won 6 games by 3 points or less, and 4 of those were against teams that missed the playoffs (Jets,Bills,Texans,Browns). They also had miracles against Denver and New Orleans where they no doubt should have lost. They added Revis but lost Talib so the overall upgrade at that spot will be minimal. Adding Browner from the Seahawks was also a solid pickup. Other then that they didn't do jack squat to upgrade in the offseason. There might not even be one starter out of all of the guys they drafted. On the other hand this is still Brady and the Pats and they tend to find a way to win. The Dolphins are Jameis Winston contenders this year mark my words. They collapsed at the end of last year. People have lost a ton of faith in Philbin. Tannehill did nothing to improve upon his rookie year. They didn't do much at all to better their running game. I have the Fish winning 4 - 6 this year, and wouldn't be shocked it it really bottomed out at 2 or 3. The AFC North will come down to the Ravens and Bengals. Right now I am leaning Ravens. Bengals had some key losses, Ravens added alot of new pieces including a veteran Steve Smith as a WR2 option, and the defense is getting young again. AFC South is Colts by default. If the Texans end up with Ryan Mallet then they have a great shot too, but their total lack of any servicable QB is going to hurt. AFC West should be Denver but it will be close. Either San Diego or KC will give them a good run like last year but Denver is too strong to lose a bunch of games. AFC East - Pats will win by a hair over the Jets. My prediction right now is that they both end up 10-6, but the Pats somehow win the tiebreaker. Jets improved more then anyone in the division by far and are starting to look more and more like the Seahawks of a few years ago. Brady will find a way to get the Pats to a solid record. I would throw Buffalo in there too since they added Williams and Watkins, but losing Byrd is massive. That was the QB of their Defense, you don't replace that overnight.
If Gordon is out all year then the Browns are completely doomed. You don't go 4-12 with the best receiver in the entire NFL, lose him for the season and then make the playoffs. His 118 yards per game was 12 better then Calvin Johnson. That's insane. The Raiders will be interesting. At his best Shaub is very good, at his worst he is just terrible. They also added (and overpayed) a bunch of old veterans that they are hoping can step in and play like they used to. They had a pretty good draft though, and Mack is a potential DPOY candidate so that never hurts. The Chargers are my dark horse AFC Super Bowl team. Won their last 5 of 6. Lost 6 games by only one score. Smashed Cincy in the playoffs and nearly beat the Broncos. If their Secondary was just 20th last year instead of 28th, then they would have been 12-4 and things may have been looking at the Super Bowl. Rivers IMO is the most underrated QB in the entire league, partially because he comes off as a cocky asshole and people don't like him.
Still think the AFC East should be one of the weakest ones in the division. If we get in to the playoffs, it will be by the seat of our pants. God. We have so many questions.
If Geno is much better or if Vick starts we can win the division. Almost beat the Pats both times last year, won and loss within 3 points with a 2nd round rookie and a horrific skill position players. The moves we made, and maybe if Hill steps up along with this new Gronk like TE and Decker we could possibly for the first time sweep them. Just sayin......
Well, he plays passing routes like a WR anyway. We have yet to see if he can inline block at all but some people are convinced that he can be pretty good at it. I'll wait to see if that's true before I let myself be convinced on it.
You won't be saying this after Jimmy Graham gets his record breaking deal and sets the market for TEs for years to come.
I heard somewhere that he actually did in-line block for a few plays in college, but 99% of the time he was split outside. This made him a target on every snap, thus his gaudy receiving stats. But yeah, at this point no one but his college coach has any idea if he can block.
I'm not convinced that Graham is going to get as big a deal as you seem to think. Let's see the details before we start worrying about inflated TE salary.
What makes you think he won't get a big deal? If it's not by the Saints, it'll be by someone else. NFL Salary cap is increasing and all. TE position is more important today then ever.
I think he'll get a big deal comparative to TEs in the past, the elite ones always do each year, just like every other position. I just don't think that a Jimmy Graham deal is going to redefine cap value for the position in such a revolutionary way as you seem to be expecting. I mean, yeah, there are a handful of really stupid teams that have done things like that (coughOaklandcough) but those things happen far less frequently than the norm.
Haynesworth, Mario Williams, Joe Flacco. Maybe more then you think ... given the opportunity, someone will throw stupid money at him.
QB and DL positions have historically been high salary jobs, TE, FB and Safety the lowest, not counting kickers and punters (although the moron Raiders did a number on kicker salary as well.) What I think you have been intimating is that Graham's future contract will raise TE above the level that TE was normally prioritized in terms of cap importance. Please correct me if I'm wrong about that.
The game is changing - Byrd got a 54 million dollar contract, Earl Thomas is now the highest paid safety in the league by signing a 4 year 40 million dollar extension. Full-back has become obsolete pretty much. I think running backs are now the position that suffers from low salary nowadays. Outside of Shady, AP, and Foster not many out there getting paid top $. Forte from Chicago is making 32M. Regarding the 2nd bold post - Yes. Bold prediction, but that's what I believe will happen as the game transitions. TE eventually will get the same face lift. It started with Gronk and it will continue with Graham who is one of the better play-makers in the entire league. Running backs will continue to de-value while tight ends continue to become more expensive.
10mil per year for the top paid safety in the league isn't as gaudy as it sounds, I can see the same amount given to TEs and it won't mean that it's redefining cap value, just like you said earlier, the cap keeps going up. QB, DL, LT and WR salaries will also increase with that same pace. RB and FB are due to the rapid breakdown in the body and lower career expectancy of those positions, and no, contrary to popular belief, FB isn't becoming obsolete, it is being absorbed into the TE/Hback ranks, plenty of teams that don't carry "FB" in their depth chart still use receiving FBs as Hback/TE to fill that role. It's a logistics maneuver used to save roster spots. All it takes is a couple of game changing FBs coming out of NCAA and the NFL copycats will start utilizing the position in the pure sense in hopes of gaining an edge.
I don't think the TE salary average will ever touch the heights of QB / DL / LT / WR, but that doesn't discount the other positions such as both guard positions, HB, RT, and C. The traditional fullback is obsolete. The TE / Hback is still not a full time full back, like a Tony Richardson. It is a logistics maneuver to save roster spots, but at the same time not every fullback (John Connor) can line up as a TE / Hback. Connor for the Jets couldn't catch or run routes. Those type of players thrived in the early days, not so much now. Let me know you see a game changing FB, it's going to be a while. Spread offenses aren't going away.
I never said spreads were going away, but just like when the WCO philosophy was in full swing and the league started filling with Walsh disciples, smart DCs started targeting defensive players who had the physical skill set to stop them, and now pure WCO teams are rare, using different terminology and mixing in Erhardt-Perkins and Air Coryell influences with it. The NFL right now is drawing from college because players adept in the spread are easy to find, but once NCAA teams switch to smaller, faster LBs and larger, lankier safeties to handle those routes in the middle of the field wholesale, OCs will naturally adjust to find the weaknesses. I'm not saying that teams are just going to find FBs that can block like hell and can't catch, those days are gone because the game is ever evolving, there will be TE/HBs drafted and converted to FB to capitalize on the weakness defenses have created by overcompensating to the success of the spread, and the spread will in turn be absorbed into the amalgamation of offensive philosophies like WCO, E-P and AC.
Interesting. You know, I used to think that about the Chargers almost every year, and then each time they under achieved. Rivers is a very good QB, but not quite elite IMO. It didn't help him to lose Vjax either. I guess we'll see. Every year there is at least one new team in the playoffs, and one who unexpectedly misses. It could be the year of the Jaguars.
