Yea I know. Jay forgot about us. I listened to all weather forecasts on TV and everybody is saying the big storm will go towards see and we will have little snow but again Professor Jayster should confirm.
Looks like SoCenPa will get clipped by this storm either way. Just looked at the projected path and we're on the northern edge.
Several years ago the same thing happened to my mom. They had to drill a rod into her hand and lower arm to attach a support rod so the wrist could heal properly. She was not a happy camper
everyone have a snow hangover? whats happening with saturday/sunday? n.w.s showing a 50% chance of snow from saturday nite to sunday nite. are we still in for a good event?
Gordon,,,,my wife broke her other wrist 7 years ago,,,,same break similar surgery,,,,,luckily it went well then hopefully it goes well now No sign of the Jayster ,,,so either he is in his weather lab going over model numbers and equations or this weekend storm went bye bye,,,,time will tell
:drunk: OK, simple question. When are we (northeastern NJ) going to get a few days of above freezing temps? This snow/freeze cycle is starting to get annoying. :wink: :beer:
sorry guys..crazy day today. I hear all of your concerns for my well being...alive and well..and you guys are doing a better job than me with this storm..CMAN....DEAD ON. Its turned into a 2 prong system with light snow Saturday night...light snow sunday/sunday night. To go on and on with how close this is to being bigger would bore all of us because there is now consistency, with 2 light snow events. Still, man..its so damn close to being much bigger. The players got their first true sampling today and it did bring it even closer...but no cigar. If the models didnt show bomb a week ago...and this thing didnt go social media crazy last weekend, we wouldnt even be dissecting this much...but it did. Still, I want to turn the lights off on it but cant for 2 reasons. The models did have a bomb for a reason. You can see 3 different players that just need 2 to play to make it much bigger but they are anywhere from 12 to 24 hours away from each other and although they closed the gap, times running out. Second reason is is that it will probably snow. Looks like a dusting event Saturday and possibly 2 to 4 central jersey on south as CMAN pointed out perfectly. Im dying to see the EURO tonight to see if it brings it any closer. If the EURO doesnt, we track a light snow event. If it does, I wouldnt be shocked. Then we have the event for next Wednesday night/ Thursday which the NWS has already put out a 50 percent chance of precip...which is extremely high being almost a week out: Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%. The reason for the rain and snow mention for Thursday is because the EURO model has the storm butting right up against the coast...while the GFS has it a bit more out over the Atlantic which would allow for a colder storm so put nothing into this being a rain storm right now. If not on for the EURO tonight will post it tomorrow morning but I should see it tonight. Sorry for the delay in posting guys..but you guys do great without me!
Long range models now for a few weeks have been showing a major warm up after this run of storms is done. We have the little one for Sunday...right now...we have one for middle of next week..and then another next weekend. After that the models keep showing a run of 50 plus temps. Will give a look in the next few days to see if thats still on tap.
Whats amazing about their 50 percent chance of snow for Sunday is that no model is even showing snow for up by you right now..not one model. Even the NWS is sitting with trends and thinking this still could come around. In a normal winter, NWS would have no more than a 30 percent chance of light snow or flurries...but they see the potential...and the trends. When a storm is 72 hours away, you should start to see trends come back..and if we dont see anything tonight, I highly doubt it happens FJF.
Ok no middle of the nite update so either Jay is pooped like me and fell asleep or the Euro said zilch and nothing to report ? So Why do I keep getting the feeling that the local weather guys are going to keep saying a dusting to a couple of inches Sunday to ,,,,,,,,,,,,Jay posting Saturday that this thing jelled , trended, phased ,,,yada yada. Into get " the ariens ready Cman and company,,,,,,,,we shall see as we await the weather gurus updates,,,stay safe and warm all
i think its really gone CBG, drifting safely out to sea. i'd say jys next post says to start watching wednesday/thursday. time to finish the work week and figure out what hill me and the kids are taking the sleds to
Thank You! Unfortunately, the town where I work (and the one I drive through to get there) have the same theory of snow removal. God put it there and God will take it away. It's not been a fun commute these past few days and the parking lot is a solid sheet of ice. I'm getting way too old for all this! :wink:
Just checked the weather for today. Right now it's 22 (Bah) but high of 38 and sunny which wouldn't be too bad for the end of the week. weather.com says 30% chance of snow Saturday night and 30% chance Sunday morning. Decent odds of a dry weekend.
Man, I have been fighiting something. I need very little sleep..very little. 3 nights in a row while watching t.v, I just fall asleep sitting up? Then wake up to go right to bed...imagine if the models showed a bomb..and I was sleeping. Yep..FJF is correct..light snow event thats it..with a bomb still on board for Wednesday..now lets see if the modlels lose the bomb...if it is still on board by Sunday night,..all systems go for another big storm. Sorry so quick guys...took the day off and feel like crap..be on later.
I ithink all areas are fighting removing this stuff because it was snow..then heavy snow..then solid ice. All towns and places are having a real tough time. Now, yes..the warmup is about 10 days away and it lasts a bit. I quickly just checked to see if the Wednesday storm is still on and guess what..it is..in a big way.
it has been GG...I have the bug..its official. Man, feel like crap. Checked models..this is a light event for Sunday it seems..very light..and we keep an eye on next Wednesday/Thursday..and then the following Sunday. It just goes to show you that less than 50% of storms 10 days out come to fruition and this year has been a more on year. This storm and I think I even posted a model image of it, was a monster at one point. Not happening. Great setup and maybe its the Gods upstairs saying we need a break. Then, perhaps..things really warm up...and some might not want to hear it..but we could use it. Im checking some neighbors homes..the ice hanging off roofs. The piles of snow from my snowblower are like rocks now. Unmoveable...I think its time for a warmup for our area to get rid of some of this. But, we track..lets see what happens over the weekend with the storm for next week.
FJF..we are always on the case bud. Reason being is a short range model just dropped a decent storm just..and I mean..JUST to our south for Sunday night monday...now...are you kidding me? Seriously, could you imagine if the GFS at 1030 and the EURO bring back a storm in this period? That would spell Trend with a F@#$ me. Of course we dont jump in..but let me check how this happened and if it makes any sense...I will post the number map here.
ok...here you have the storm coming in on Sunday..it has a line towards Pittsburgh that stops..and then a second line that runs through Maryland and heads up towards DE...and South Jersey. That, to me, would look like a secondary storm trying to from and head up the coast. Now looking at, except for just south of Pitt, which picks up over 8 inches of snow, it doesnt look like much at all..perhaps 2-4 in south jersey and 3 to 5 in DE. The real question is because this is now a Sunday night/Monday event, is this secondary storm going to start to become more pronounced. The trends of the past continue to increase precip but what would allow that to happen? Whats allowing it to happen now is the at one time the models had 3 baby disturbances, as we talked about, that were 12 to 24 hours away from each other. Now it slows down the 2nd and 3rd disturbances and allows it to strengthen. The huge question is are the models correct...is there really 3 disturbances or was it 2 all the time...and now we will see this one escalate in strength. I would lean almost every other winter...except this one. It keeps the door open and wouldnt be surprised by tomorrow night this 2 inch storm doubles..at least. Right now, I cant see how it gets huge again except for New England...but placement changes in past models for it to make sense and then all of a sudden you say...oh..ok...that makes sense. So..again..not looking for a bomb here..but does thing start to blow up to a 4 to 8 storm? EDIT: Oh..and look at that storm out west...nice numbers huh? That is the storm that may give us a problem in the middle of the week. 50 50 right now.
