This is what my "other guy" is saying. Jaywayne can corroborate this: The latest winter storm is pulling away this afternoon after performing as planned with 2 to 4 inches of snow over northern NJ followed by signficant icing. Much more snow fell well north near the New York State border. There are power outages throughout interior NJ caused by trees falling on power lines. Precipitation is pretty much over with the exception of some freezing drizzle. Temperatures will fall tonight and refreeze standing water. Temperatures will remain below freezing through the weekend. The potential for a winter storm this weekend has been discussed for days and at this point there is a growing media frenzy over the potential with this storm. Over the last couple of days, the overall pattern has become less favorable for a big East Coast storm due to several factors. The most important change has been the collapse of ridging along the West Coast of North Atlantic which translates into a flatter more zonal flow. This does not allow for energy in the jet stream to "dig" south which is important for the genesis of storms in the east. That being said, the threat of snow this weekend....particularly Sunday, is certainly still on the table. There will be a storm developing off the southeast coast and a system in the polar jet moving towards us from the west. It appears as though these systems will not phase into a single large storm, but the coastal low needs to be watched. Keep in mind one very important element about the storms that have already occurred this winter, not one of the three 6+ snow events has been modeled at all in the medium range (3 to 5 days out)...and in some instances the model guidance literally showed no precipitation at all 48 to 72 hours prior to the event. So in summary, I think the "big storm" option is off the table, but I would still be wary about that southern system becoming a bit more of a player as we progress towards Sunday.
Jetstream pretty much CMAN. Whats holding this up from explodinig pretty much is the dynamics in Alaska basically. They want to push one stream out ahead of another which ends us giving us two rather meaningless systems instead of one powerhouse system. The reason its still on the radar is that there are several attempts to make this happen and it all pretty much..well most importantly because there are several reasons but all revolve around timing. Another reason it still on the radar and most winters would be written off is the trends this winter of bringing storms back in to the coast. Seems like many..in fact I cant think of one storm which at one time trended south and then came back north. Well, this last storm actually is one...the reason this storm was almost written off at one time is that models started to think the primary storm heading towards the great lakes would be the well..primary..and no secondary would form and that would have led to MUCH warmer temps. Now in fairness and being honest, besides a good setup, its tough to put all your eggs in one basket and say we are still interested in this coming back north and very strong because of mostly a trend. Not very good physics with that logic. But thats why guys without a degree can be effective too because seasons are about trends. I remember about 5 years ago the term used so much you wanted to puke was suppression. Not matter what was modeled in the end all storms went out to sea because of high pressures to the north that pushed storms out to sea..suppression this..suppression that. So far this year is the year of MILLER B storms...one storm goes towards the Great Lakes and is blocked forcing the storm to hand off energy to a coastal storm. All of our storms have been MILLER Bs. You guys know I hate them..but have been proven wrong because for the most part, they have been very successful. Half of the greatest storms of all time were MILLER Bs. For those just tuning in..a MILLER B is as I descrbed it. A MILLER A is a storm that forms around the gulf of mexico and just rides up the coast..not switch offs..its own entity...more reliable..and very strong. Blizzard of 96..last time I will reference it this winter..lol...MILLER A.
Didnt see this but sounds about right GQ. Good write up. Im not sure I agree with the all the storms not modeled in the medium range. I think most have..but to varying degrees. I think he is totally correct if he meant the models intensify the storm as we get closer. The one thing he is dead on about is the progressive nature of the jetstream or as he describes the zonal flow. He is dead on except one thing. If you were to tell me that this winter would be the winter of zonal flow west to east, I would tell you this winter would be a huge dud..huge dud. The thing most pros will look back on after this winter is over is how did we get all of this snow and ice with such a progressive pattern. That will be the story behind the scenes. If you think back on almost every storm this year, they have been quick hitters. Short duration. The snows that fell last night fell in about 3 to 4 hours for me. Areas that got over a foot probably got near 10 inches in about a 5 hour span. I know last night I had to get close to3 inches in one hour from 3 to 4am. So yes...very good write up and very nice job.
Yes and no GG...I think it sinking so far south is probably over..but we will get a taste of it in the next few days. As it should, it retreats north but still has its hands in the northeast and midwest.
snowing again here. this thing just keeps on going. had a few hours of rain/sleet but now back to big flakes. so didnt read through the whole thing but the weekend might bust huh?
So the baseball talk was really about baseball? I thought it was all just code for Lesbianism! :wink:
Now thats not a bad idea RP...not a bad idea at all. Not sure how to make the transition...but its on the list.
I really didnt follow the whole ice part of this storm but I would say, right now, we are getting the worst part of that. Im not sure how long this will last but just came in from outside, and its freezing drizzle and the trees are starting to sag. You think its over and now this. Checking the late afternoon models right now and I will say this because we have to put all the cards on the table but a midweek snowstorm is on the radar and it has been for almost 4 days. Now, with the way the models are handling SOME of these storms, we try to keep it real because as of today the storm for this weekend is not likely but Definitely not dead. Checking now.
Ok...just checked...no real changes but still get the feeling something changes for the Sunday storm..and let me tell you why. This has nothing to do with me being a genius..lol..not even close. It has all to do with reading 4 separate NWS write ups stating the same thing. Trends. That the lastest models even though they are baby steps..are now showing maybe 2 to 4 inches for us. Baby steps. Then all of a sudden that storm comes in off the Pacific on Thursday and the models digest good information. This has been the pattern all winter. Rarely when you read the pros to get some backing into what you might be thinking do you hear them hanging on to something that should have been let go. These guys dig so deep into why....and it helps understand exactly what to look for. This is their real strength...better than their actual predictions on how much will fall. So, in a nutshell, this is still something to watch out for. Also, the models continue to show a major storm for middle of next week..and then the following Sunday. One thing about the models is they have been dead on about a storm and that time frame but just like this storm for the weekend, may not get the strength down so I would say we track the two storms after this to see what happens.
I don't know if this means anything....but weather.gov originally had 50% chance of snow for Sunday. Earlier today, it lowered it to 20%. Now it's back up to 50%.
Yeah been here basically my whole life. Sometimes it isn't too bad, like last winter, but this one has been rough. Today I shoveled three driveways. Three! And it wasn't just an inch or two, more like a foot. So exhausted now.
Figured there was more to it than just weather. I will try to check in every once in awhile bit not a big baseball fan to be honest.
gotchya jay, i need 5" to hit that 24" mark for the week. so a 2-4 prediction might get me there since everything seems to overachieve this year.
What a lovely day,,,,,,,,,,just got home from the ER. Wife fell on the ice and the broken wrist is now set and tomorrow we talk surgery,,,,,,ugh ! Back on topic,,,is it 1 a.m. Yet ? Any new info for us baseball enthusiast to get excited about for Sundays snow/ non snowstorm ?
Thanks Brook,,,,,,,,,the sooner the surgery the quicker recovery,,,,, No updates from jay. Last. Nite,,,maybe we get GFS and EURO together,,,kinda like surf and turf,,,,or in keeping with the thread an unassisted double play :lol:
lol...needed the sleep last night cbg and wow..sorry about your wife!..keep us updated bud. Really sorry to hear that. Here is a stat for you...NYC to date has 4 more inches than Fairbanks Alaska. NYC is over 40. Not much news but todays sampling by gfs at 1030 will start to fill in blanks..last nights runs were strike 2...but could have been a check swing that was questionable. Again..close..and again..it continues to show the chance for a 2 to 4 3 to 6 event...but that will not be a game changer. So, lets see what today brings. Next weeks storm is still on in a very big way..but we have seen this with the past storm so we just mention it.
