The 49ers are in a different place than the Pats were in 2007. They have a young QB and bunch of young stars on defense to feed over the next few years. Based on the evidence last year they're a player in the defensive backfield away from trying for their own 18-1 year. Even if they wanted too they can't keep that team together as it is currently constituted much less make it better for more than a year or two. The salary cap is going to pull them to pieces, probably starting in 2015. That's a very small window to put together the greatest show on earth. Adding another talented rookie or two isn't the way to get over the top before they fall back to earth. Adding another great player next year might well be. The cap isn't just a device to control spending by NFL owners and help small market teams survive. It's a mechanism to wreck dynasties before they get a lot of traction. It works very well in that regard too. If a team wants the golden ticket the answer is to overload heavily around a window they already have wedged open. The cap is going to wreck them guaranteed in a few years anyway. They need to strike while they can or they get locked in the economic straight-jacket the NFL has created. The only teams that get to break the rules and be good for a decade are the ones that have hall of fame QB's that don't get hurt on them. Even then those teams don't win a lot of championships once they get in that mode.
We have two options in my opinion 1) deal revis now and get what we can that will have riders conditional a physical pass date 2) play with a distraction all year in the press, loose him after the year and get nothin and watch one of the greatest corners to put on a uniform as a Jet one last year Whatever shakes out I have nothing but admiration for him on and off the field. I'm proud he is a Jet.
There is no guarantee we will lose him if we let him play out his contract. The Jets FO will have all next season to see if hes up to speed, then offer him an extension long before FA hits. If the asking price is too high, or he is not his old self, we let him walk after next season. Trading him now, when his value is so low, is not a smart decision. It basically eliminates any chance we have at competing in 2013.
I don't think the Patriots were "trying for 18-1", or even trying for 19-0, in the offseason leading up to the 2007 season. They were simply trying to improve their weakest position. Not just for a year, but for years to come. And a big part of the reason they made those moves was how little risk and how much upside they had. Stallworth was a free agent, and was intended to be our new #1 WR when we signed him, and he agreed to an incentive laden deal so that there was very little risk. Randy Moss for a 4th round pick was a small risk with potential for huge upside. Welker was an example of Belichick recognizing an underrated talent that would prove to be great value considering what we gave away. The mindset of the Patriots that year was "We have a big hole at WR, so lets grab a bunch of big-upside guys that will cost us next to nothing, and hope that some of them will pan out." They weren't just focusing on trying to win it in one year. Even if the Patriots were in the 49ers current situation, I wouldn't want them trying to win it all in one year at the cost of future competitiveness. The 49ers aren't the Cardinals with Kurt Warner, or the Vikings with Brett Favre. They have a talented young QB who they think is worth building around. They have every reason to think their future is bright for the foreseeable future, as long as they don't make stupid moves like the one you are suggesting. I think it will start earlier than 2015. The solution to that problem is, and always has been, young players who will outperform their contract. If the 49ers trade away multiple high draft picks, that kind of works against that, don't you think? Why not? They came pretty damn close this year. Why can't a couple talented rookies be the difference? You don't need the "greatest show on earth" to win a Super Bowl, and trying to put together the "greatest show on earth" with a 1-year window has been know to fail on many occasions. What happens when Kaupernick (or Revis) suffers a serious injury next season? That whole plan goes to waste, and you are just left with the remnants of the team that you gutted trying to get lucky on one single scratch ticket. No, not really. The Patriots and Steelers (and to a lesser extent teams like the Packers and Ravens) have shown that sustained success is possible, and also more likely to yield championships than any other approach. What those teams didn't do is create a small window for themselves and try to win it all at once.
As a 49er fan I couldn't agree more. These teams got themselves to this point by NOT making decisions like that. For the most part the only people this line of thinking makes sense to is Jets fans who WANT the 49ers to give up a bunch of picks.
Wow. I pretty much agree with you on all of these. The FO of the 49ers and the Pats operate in a very similar manner. If they make an imbalanced trade, they make sure they are on the correct end of that imbalance. (See Raiders-Pats Moss trade followed by Pats-Vikes Moss trade.....and now compare to Alex Smith Trade). The 49ers also follow that lead in Free Agency. Carlos Rogers. Randy Moss. Braylon Edwards. All players signed to 1 year near league minimum contracts just to see what they had left. Donte Whitner. Mario Manningham. Jonathan Goodwin. VALUE signings for a low $$$ figure. I say this again...the 49ers WIN NOT SPLURGE and give up a huge # of picks for a 1 year player. It simply will not happen.
Couldn't have said it better. Tim Kawakami is an award winning Bay Area beat writer who works for the San Jose Mercury. http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawaka...akami-merc+(Talking+Points+with+Tim+Kawakami) 49ers and Darrelle Revis, the right trade price-point, and the big-name CB Super Bowl fallacy Posted by Tim Kawakami on March 5th, 2013 at 2:54 pm | Categorized as 49ers, NFL From all the attention they get and all the clamoring I hear from fans every year that their team must absolutely desperately 1,000% do anything to acquire a big-name Pro Bowl CB or else all will be doomed… You’d think there was probably some clear correlation between having a Pro Bowl CB and competing for a Super Bowl immediately, right? Has to be, or else there surely wouldn’t be all this babbling and TV time devoted to it year after year in the off-season, including right now, with so many 49ers fans (and outside pundits) insisting that the 49ers would be foolish not to give up whatever the Jets want in a deal for Jets star CB Darrelle Revis. RIGHT? Well, no, not really. Just ask the Eagles and their guaranteed Super Bowl titles after signing Nnamdi Asomugha a few years ago.. –OK, let me backtrack before anybody misconstrues this entirely: I’m not saying the 49ers should refuse any Jets’ phone call about a potential Revis trade. He’s a great CB, which is valuable, and the 49ers–as most teams–could use a lock-down CB in their quest to win a Super Bowl. –The 49ers are flush with draft choices, and Revis comes with an acceptable salary this season, so if they could ship one of their extra 2nd- or 3rd-round picks to the Jets, they could easily do a one-year rental and hope he lifts them to a Lombardi Trophy. –But Revis, 27, is a free agent after this season, he has held out twice already in his young career, and even if he’s a good soldier this season, he almost surely would want a contract beyond this season that would make him one of the top-paid players on earth and he wouldn’t be shy about letting people know that. –I cannot see the 49ers paying anything like that after investing so much elsewhere, and with big deals theoretically coming for Colin Kaepernick and Aldon Smith down the road. And Michael Crabtree, too. –Plus, Revis is coming off an ACL tear and who knows when and if he’ll be back to full speed in the 2013 season. That’s a lot of gambling there on a probable one-year rental, so the 49ers would have to budget that all into any trade offer they’d make. –Again, if the Jets would take a 2nd- or 3rd-rounder (the Jets would probably get a similar compensatory pick if they just let Revis go as a free agent next off-season, but that’s a long way from now and immediate picks are always more valuable than future picks), the 49ers could take the one-year swing with Revis without large anxiety. –If it works, it works. If not, oh well, the 49ers have still got a million picks and Revis can try to break the bank elsewhere. –BUT: Why would the Jets trade their best player for a 2nd- or 3rd-round pick? They wouldn’t. They’d want more–probably double that, and the 49ers wouldn’t want to do that. –The 49ers’ correct price-point for Revis seems far short of what the Jets should and will be asking, and the 49ers’ conservative stance in this instance would be wise. My broader point: Fans and pundits are obsessed with big-name CBs and yet there just is no recent correlation between big-name CBs and winning Super Bowls, or even competing for Super Bowls. Great QBs? Yes, a correlation. Great CBs? It’s not there, at least not recently. Which seems a little strange in this pass-happy league, but it’s still not there. And smart teams know this. I count the 49ers as a smart team, as much as I want to resist that easy hometown judgment. Oh well: Most everything they’ve done in the last two or three years has been logical, smart and risky only when the riskiness was worth it–that’s why they’re 24-7-1 over the last two regular seasons. Mike Sando’s recent piece from the 49ers’ Paraag Marathe and Rams’ Kevin Demoff panel discussion at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference got me thinking–about allocating salary-cap space for positions and units and where a huge-name cornerback fits in that, especially with the 49ers already putting so much long-term money into their defense. You should spend money on the positions with the strongest correlation to long-term success, and I’m not sure that’s CB–especially not at Revis’ price-point. The 49ers have already sunk big money into Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks and Carlos Rogers. They decided not to sink big money into Dashon Goldson… It’s about allocation. The 49ers have the picks to tempt the Jets, but the 49ers aren’t in the business of tossing away multiple premium picks and/or young players for a player who they probably wouldn’t sign long-term, even if he is a big-name CB and the world loves big-name CBs. Question: Why do fans fixate on big-name CBs so much more than LBs, DEs, OTs or even QBs in the off-season? My guess: High-profile CBs hit the market more than franchise QBs, often have cool names (Nnamdi! Darrelle! Champ!), they get on “SportsCenter” a lot, what they do is out in the open, so it’s easy to judge, and Deion Sanders once long ago was a Super Bowl difference-maker. But Deion’s 1994 spotlight performance with the 49ers happened almost 20 years ago, folks. This isn’t 1994, the NFL isn’t run like that any more, the 49ers aren’t run like that any more, and Deion just might’ve been an outlier for all-time, anyway. Just focusing on the last decade, big-name CBs have made ZERO appearances in the Super Bowl while at the top of their games. * Baltimore didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB last season and still beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl. The 49ers didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in 2012, either. * The NY Giants didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in the 2011 season and still beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI. New England didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB, either that season. * Green Bay didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in the 2010 season (they had future Hall of Famer Charles Woodson, who didn’t make the Pro Bowl that year) but still beat Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV. Pittsburgh didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB that season, either. The Packers’ best outside CB during the postseason was Tramon Williams, who was undrafted five years earlier. * The Saints didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in the 2009 season and still won Super Bowl XLIV, against Indy’s Peyton Manning, of all QBs. Indy didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB that season, either. * Pittsburgh didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in 2008 and still won Super Bowl XLIII, against Kurt Warner’s Cardinals. Arizona didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB, either. * The Giants didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in 2007 and still beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. New England didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB that season, either. * The Colts didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in 2006 and won Super Bowl XLI. Chicago didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB that season, either. * Pittsburgh didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in 2005 and beat Seattle in Super Bowl XL. The Seahawks didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB that season, either. –So the last 16 teams that made the Super Bowl DID NOT HAVE a Pro Bowl CB on their team that year. * New England didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in 2004 and beat the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX. The Eagles DID have a Pro Bowl CB that year–Lito Sheppard. * New England didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in 2003 and beat Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Carolina didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB that season, either. * Tampa Bay didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB in 2002 and beat the Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. The Raiders didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB that season, either. –So the last 11 teams that won the Super Bowl didn’t have a Pro Bowl CB on their team that year. * New England had a Pro Bowl CB in 2001 (TY LAW) and went on to beat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. St. Louis did not have a Pro Bowl CB that year. That’s how far we have to go back to find a so-called big-name CB at his best on a Super Bowl winner. Again, I’m not saying big-name CBs are obstacles to success–what Seattle has with Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner is a challenge for every offense they play, no question. But it’s the allocation that’s important. If you tilt your pay scale and burn up your draft choices acquiring a big-name CB because it’s the sexy thing to do–YAY SPORTSCENTER HIGHLIGHTS!–I’m not at all sure that you’re actually moving forward towards a Super Bowl. You’re probably actually doing the opposite, unless you’re talking about Deion Sanders, and I think there was only one of him. (And if the 49ers get Revis for a 2nd- or 3rd-round pick, I’m throwing this item out of the window, metaphorically.)
So the Jets would be better off trading with the teams that are trying to catch the 49'ers instead? Wouldn't they be willing to pay more?
If thats the case, I really, really hope the Jets trade him to Seattle and they give him all the money he wants. I'll just thank you for the division in advance. Revis-Sherman would be a tough combo....and probably cost you nearly 30 million per season. Add another 20-25 for Russell Wilson when he's up and that's 55 million $$$ for 3 players. Niners will just go Jumbo and run over them. PLEASE do that. ;-)
We really don't have much of a concern as to what happens in the NFC so its on the Jets to get the best deal from whichever team is willing to pay the cost of Revis. If its Seattle, so be it. The only teams I don't see the Jets doing business with would be any AFCE Team and the Giants. I can see almost every other team being in play on this.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Niners eventually flip the picks they received for Alex Smith for Revis. I don't know if you can trade a conditional pick, so give back their own conditional pick. I think there is some validity to the Niners bringing in Revis and let him play out his final year if the compensation is cheap enough. From there, they can decide what to do with him at the end of the season. I don't think there's enough value for the Niners if they have to pay a large compensation package to bring him in, though.
Russell Wilson isn't going to be a $20M a year QB unless the Seahawks win a Superbowl, in which case they're not going to care that they paid through the nose for Revis and had to let him go.
Can't you say this about any max dollar player though...I'm no doctor, but does injuring your acl once and rehabbing make you that much more susceptible to future injury. If so than you have a point, if not, I could say the same thing about Flacco or Mario Williams (though you could argue the Williams contract is already that bad with him playing)
Muck Fevi$. If a team can be sanctioned for tampering, why not a player....after that interview he gave out....
The more I think about it, the more I think it would be best for all parties if Revis goes to the 49ers. Revis is arguably one of the best ever to play that position (shame I never really got to see him in action all that much). It would be a shame for that talent to fester on a rebuilding team like the Jets. We have maybe a 2% chance of going anywhere with him next year. He wants to be with a contender (which is fine). Let him go. Unless of course, this is the best smokescreen in all of pro sport,s and we're trading Cromartie.
Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter NY Daily News reports Jets have two teams interested in Darrelle Revis. This much is known: Jets are shopping him and determined to deal him ProFootballTalk @ProFootballTalk Falcons, 49ers on list of possible Darrelle Revis trade partners for Jets http://wp.me/p14QSB-7wz4 Rotoworld: Sources tell the Daily News that the 49ers and Falcons are both interested in trading for Darrelle Revis.
