1030 am gfs and then 1pm euro had better give us at least a 70% level of confidence...if not..its going to be a nowcast thing. I can work with 70% and fill in the gaps..but right now its less than 50..so you start guessing and guessing..and that sucks.
Wow Jay I have an important meeting tomorrow at Englewood Cliffs at 11 and I am planning to head back home to Madison at 1 PM tomorrow. In your next update please mention the start times as well if possible
Ok....this has to be the funniest thing I have ever seen. The NWS is who posts winter storm warnings..and watches..or snow adivisories..wind etc....and if they are not sure..they post haz weather outlooks..just to cover thy ass. Lets see what they have to say..must be important right? HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 525 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013 NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>070-061030- WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 525 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. $$Oh...ok..so they post it to tell us basically "we know we have to say something but right now, we have nothing to say. Yes everyone is saying there is potential..but we cant think on our feet and just tell MAYBE something will happen because the models are all over the place..so we are going to just post a hazerdous weather outlook to tell you there is no hazerdous weather outlook" Christ, I really messed up not getting my met degreee.
You will be fine brook. The start time varies between 9am and 3pm but it doesnt matter because its going to be a wet snow and will not really stick unitl sundow. If that changes, I will list that later this evening.
nah..you are good to go brook. GFS came in a bit south but again..a dry slot for NJ which I truly can not understand. When I say dryslot, it not that we get nothing, its that like a faucet, its on full blast to just before philly and then turns off until easter Conn then turned back on and I cant see how a storm this strong does that. Will have to go with that for now unless the Euro does makes a abrupt turn. Pretty much 3-6 for NJ. Cman gets his snow...Murell is a wait and see..and the Jersey shore gets slammed with major beach erosion. Will keep updating.
The last hour I have been real hesitant to post this but man the models have the cutoff even before Cman now...I really hope thats not the cast. I know they are calling for a lot more down there CMAN and I hope these latest models are wrong bud. Just cant see how it shuts off like that. Right now..depending on the model...you get anywhere from 2-4 on one and 6-12 on another. Again..its going to come down to nowcasting the event.
Again...the definition of NOWCAST NOWCAST: When models are all over the place and everywhere you turn, you are getting a different forecast. You then do it yourself by watching the radar as it heads your way. Jay...can you use NOWCAST in a sentence. These models are so fu#$%^ up that I intend to NOWCAST the storm to see what exactly will happen...starting at around noon tomorrow. Jay..is NOWCAST a verb...adjective...noun? Verb. But Jay...by NOWCASTING...are you admitting you have no idea whats going to happen? yes. So you are admitting defeat? Oh..yes. I refuse to take the easy way out and say 2-4 for all of NJ because Im still saying someone and somewhere in NJ there will be big surprises. (yes..an easy way to say I truly have no idea with this one.) So you admit that your big mouth is silent on this one..for the first time ever...YES.
I'm hoping it's not another big snow. I think the over-under on the age when snow ceases to be fun is about 11. That's when you go from building snow forts to shoveling.
Well for many reasons I disagree. Love building fires..love the quietness of it all. Everything just stops and slows down for a bit. BUT..im with you after the storm..and late in the season. Without boring everyone again..its not even enjoyable tracking them anymore. With all the advancements in technology, incredible how bad it is. THERE I GO AGAIN. Anyway..Im with you. I spent the better part of last night pleading with the wife to go warm..get the hell out of here. I want 80-90 everyday...the smell of the beach. Im done with this part of the country. Figgin cold way too many days of the year. May till September? Screw that.
Well Jay, I got the driveway and sidewalks all salted pretty good and BigA is standing by for duty. So far, the locals are still calling for 6-8" here so we'll see. The snow cutoff line seems to be the Philly city limits. Strange but true.
Hope so cman. I have to say, the Weather Channel is showing some kind of guts today. They continue to think what has been in my head that this storm will over perform for nj. Right now the NWS has basically 1-3 2-4 for the entire state. This specialists on the weather channel keep saying NJ could get hit hard. Lets see what happens. I still think you have to get your numbers cman..at least. Too close to the core.
So is this now Jays house of weather and now casting ?,,,,stick with it Jay,,,,tell us what your gut says,,,,,
lol..I have to tell you..when this storm is over..there are a few people INCLUDING MYSELF that will be using weather terms they have never heard of...well a few for you guys and one for me..but we can talk about that tonite when I have time
Locals now have full heavy snow warning up for most inland counties that border Md. 8-10" is a possibility here w/ no mix. Like you said, the core of this storm will be about 100 miles to our SE once it forms off the VA/MD coast. Track now saying coastal in several models as per locals
Norlun Trough..you hear that a lot over the next 72 hours..not going to bore you but if you would like to jump in an learn about what may cause just as much snow as the storm itself for some..here is the link: http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_englan...-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html Ok, where to start. Snow I believe will start later than forecasted perhaps late afternoon or evening. Lol..and from there, I havent a clue. Hows that for honesty. I mean if you by that GFS model now we get no snow at all. If you by the Euro we get 2-4 perhaps and most of that falls Thursday night? and Friday? If you by the NAM we get 8-12. The reason its getting so comical is that if you go with a blend of the models the most snow we will get will be Thursday night and Friday and thats a real bitch to explain. The storm goes through Va/md border and then reforms off the coast of va and travels north east. While all of that is happening there will be light snow falling but the storm will crawl..perhaps 10-15 mph to the north and east but up the coast so we do not get back into the more moderate snow until Thursday. And that explanation is a blend of all the major models. To give a break down of each would take up all of Petros bandwidth. The things we still no for sure is that south jersey will have major beach erosion and we should just keep an open mind that things will change. Again...we will follow what happens to our south to see what happens north. Right now..general 2-4" snow fall with very gusty winds is the call but we really need to keep an eye on possible changes..because there will be changes. First..lets see how cman does because he will be getting stuff WAY ahead of us.
It has cman and the major issue is the EURO..MOST ACCURATE...is south while several models are exactly how you described. You will do well...always thought so..what happens after is a huge headache and I just really feel by Friday morning..many will out perform. But until then, will have eyes on your area bud..Good luck!!
Its actually pretty comical but at the same time interesting (and at the same time annoying...probably because its a culmination of the most annoying winter in my 35 years of following this stuff) I try to explain stuff so its readable and reading back..doing a shitty job this time. What Im trying to explain is that once the center of the storm reorganizes off the coast..it goes from the coast of VA/NC to about 200/250 miles off the coast of L.I. over a 48 hour span. You could canoe faster than that. But its too far off the coast and too disorganized for Jersey because the strongest part of this storm is to its northwest. So by the time it kicks back in...it starts to throw snow into New England. Does that really happen just like that is the big question. Hope that makes more sense. And then there is this norlun trough that sets up and dumps more snow from central NY state back into Mass...if that sets up correctly. Regardless even down in NJ can get wrap around snow until Friday and some models have indicated thats where most of the snow falls for us.
My biggest fear is power outages due to the old growth trees that are everywhere here.I live not 15 miles from 3 Mile Island nuke plant and during the summer we have intermittent outages fairly often.
and finally NWS for north jersey kind of agrees on this long stalling thingy..chance chance chance... Tonight A slight chance of snow after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 31. Northeast wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Snow, mainly after noon. High near 40. Northeast wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy, with a north wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday A chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible Just saw another model and do believe Murrell too gets into some very good snows too. Its cman and murrell show right now.
