Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

I know cman...a real snow dome over your area for awhile..much buzz about the northern trend today in the models but if it continues tonite..gas it up. I will have info at 930 pm..then 1030 pm but will probably not be up for the euro at 1am...maybe.

model runs
NAM 930
GFS 1030
BRITISH/CMC few others 1100/12am
EURO 1AM

 

Here is the way I would draw the line with the heavy precip right now. Just use I95...west of I95 from philly north gets less precip..much less. The heavy precip goes from the coast of MD cuts through AC up to eastern L.I. and then towards Boston east.

Now you noticed I put precip. The more north the storm goes so does the rain snow line. Its a trick setup.

Also..trends trends trends...was this a trend or a wobble. Big difference. Does the trend continue..does it settle back south..or is this it. Tonite will do alot to help us with that.

And I wouldnt be going into so much detail if this was a run of the mill 2-4" storm. For those that get it..it will either be a heavy wet snow...a heavy rain...and all that get it will have very gusty winds and much beach erosion...I think the beach erosion is a given at this point and the only true lock.

 

And you wonder why you have to choose the right model for the right storm..this a real fun link. Just run your mouse over the hours above starting with 06 and you see ones models different ideas for the storm...and you then get to see how friggin difficult this really is.

LINK: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html

 

Sorry Im spending so much time on CMAN but right now he is the one getting something here. Latest NWS percentages for your area:

<1" 90%
<4" 70%
<8" 50%

Not me sir..from the NWS but I have to say...you getting more than 4" at least is looking very very good. And Im telling you..one more north run and you are getting at least 8.

 

Actually CBG, there is one more storm potential around the 11th to 13th but I wouldnt put too much stock in it right now....Im really ready to move on...lol.

 

and CBG and Brook..from the NWS:

Chances of getting greater than:

<1 60%
<4 30-40%
<8 10%

Now a shift north would put cman in the 100% and your numbers cmans numbers. Lets see what happens tonite.

 

No problem CBG..and Im still sticking with what my original thought was...this will come north..but is it north enough to give us 5-8 or north enough to give us 15-25? Not sure.

 

Lets try this pic thing again.



Here you see how close..how close this is to NYC. These numbers are liquid..so you take it and mulitiply times 10 to give you the snow numbers.

Notice a few very very important things here. Notice the location of the center of storm. Forget about the double L's. Its the bottom L thats the center.

Important things:

1. The tight isobars above the L that circle into the coast of Jersey and Long Island. That tells you the wind direction. The closer the bars are together the stronger the wind. That means regardless of precip...the Jersey coast gets hammered with high waves and beach erosion. Bad Setup.

2. Notice where the precip starts to go light blue to light green in central NJ. Huge cutoff between heavy precip and light. That moves 50 miles north and you have a huge snowstorm for the NYC metro area. In fact that line is only miles south of NYC and its really that close.

3. Notice the big H above Maine...thats one of things thats not allowing this storm to go more north....but at the same time its needed to bring in the cold air to give you a chance at snow...so you need the H to either be a bit weaker or more north.

4. Central North VA gets clobbered...over 2 feet. Cman gets nothing..but this model is the most southern when it comes to PA. Its too tightly wounded and its precip field is incorrect.

But you get the idea..lets post this and see if I get the pic right...lol.

 

And now the American model GFS (the other pic is the Nam..a short range model) came even further north and now this is getting very very very interesting. Does the Euro follow suite tonite? If so..we have a possible huge snowstorm for those west of i95

Again...temps could be a problem but the bottom line is this..the models have shifted north so now we see if it continues..and where is the rain snow line. Really tough call.

 

Its the NAM..an american short range model..and the last one is the GFS which has been doing just as good and the king Euro model.

Now the Euro model is up at 1am. And my guess is that it will follow the GFS..not as far north..but its playing catch up.

 

AGAIN..unless I put a map up and it says in snow inches..these are liquid inches..so if you are in area that says 1.75..thats 17.5 inches of snow. Now some of those areas are actually going to be all rain so thats the tough call.

 

and the Euro trended north. Not as north as the GFS but that never happens. Its who blinks first so the Euro blinked.

Heres what we are looking for the next 24 hours that will tell the story of who gets a snow storm and who doesnt.

1 the gfs stays the same and the euro trends to the gfs...snowstorm for almost all west of i95 and cman gets his snow storm..so does brook...close call for cbg.

2 the gfs trends south tomorrow and the Euro stays where it is...snowstorm for nothern va and western md..and close call for cman little for Brook..and nothing for cbg

3 the euro goes north and the gfs goes south and they meet in the middle...snow storm for same...VA and MD west..cman gets 3,4,5,6 around brook gets a couple and CBG gets light snow.

4 they all trend north and everyone west of DC to Boston gets a huge snow storm..but closer to the coast is a rain storm.

See ya tomorrow.