Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

holy crap SM..did not know that. Perhaps its time to tame down the jumps..lol..hope you are doing better.

And BH...depends on the model....the NAM model..a short range model just put down heavy snow for Mass..and a bit less for the skiers. Will update later tonite but right now...it starts very late friday but doesnt really kick in until Saturday down here..up there figure a late sat morning start.

 

lol CBG...all I can say is that there will be a storm..as I mentioned about 10 days ago..hell yeah...have to pat myself a bit..but it will not be a snowstorm for our area.

I mean that could change..but I really believe the best snows with THIS storm for us if any, would be the wrap around snows at the end...Saturday night Sunday morning. This is an interior New England storm.

With that said, incredibly, the best dynamics for a major storm have finally entered our view in the next two weeks. Cold air..with incredible blocking. In fact, right now, the storm that will hit us on Tuesday is now forecasted to hang around until Thursday...then March 1st...then March 5...then March 10th.

One of these will click for our area because the dynamics are perfect. The blocking...which does two things...allows the storm to phase further south..and makes them a slow mover..is in place until the 10th of March.

This will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

So...this weekend.

Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday

Next Saturday/Sunday...and so on.

 

It could be rain...but there will be snow in the picture somewhere with that storm.

Have to tell you...I love following the weather..the storms..even in the spring and summer while I will not give daily updates...if we have huge t storms coming through, I will post severe weather.

With that said..the models are so horrible. You always like to put your twist when you read models but the bottom line is you have to always start with the info they give you and go from there. THIS YEAR AND LAST YEAR? There has to be total do over and investigation on what has happened to the models the past 2 years.

Yes they hit Sandy pretty well and perhaps that big storm they did ok..but barely...but its just not much fun anymore tracking storms 2 weeks aways because the models will at least give you strength. Thats all I need. How strong will it be. I dont need them to tell me rain or snow..wind..etc. You can figure that out.

Its been horrible following them this year and I can show you 200 other people in forums that cant stand it anymore. They call for huge storms but never together. One model says huge storm and backs off...then another one says yes..big storm..then as it gets closer...there is always a storm.

In fact..if you go back on my long range call for storms I bet you I have been 90 percent right..we have gotten storms. But the strength of storms...? I think I have been less than 50 percent. Tough stuff.

Ok..thats my bitch for the year.

 

lol..thanks cbg..was having a pissed off melt down when I looked at the models last night. No consistency but hey...the big thing I should learn from this is trends..trends..and if I or anyone calling these things have not seen this winter pass by now and understand the trends...thats my bad..and a bad job.

The trend all winter long and last winter is this..models see a bomb storm..then as it gets closer 90% of them either fade or get warmer. They all happen...big deal. You cant call a major storm more than 4 days out anymore. You can talk about it..but saying this will probably happen or that will probably happen..uh uh.

Now the Tuesday storm has also trended warmer and next weekends storm still looks like it could be major but guess what..time to learn the trends of the storm. It probably will not happen because the models will show it warmer as it gets closer.

Will one of these pan out before the 15th when all models show a push towards spring? Maybe...but have to take the long range with a grain of salt and right now..im not buying anything.

Will of course continue to update!

 

Right now they all look to go down the crapper..that is right through next weekend. Rain..rain...rain.

Actually rain and snow showers Thursday Friday Saturday. The models have all trended warm and I see no reason they will go back. The continue to show storms all the way through the 15th of March but its tough to bite on them this early. Will monitor but the long range is sooo bad right now, cant bite.

The March 1st storm I liked is now gone..replaced with snow showers. Will see if it comes back...but the winter is what it is...just one nice storm and a bunch of busts.

 

I really think maine is not out of the running for a few more storms.

Tracking storms, one would believe I would be dying for a few more storms but as mentioned...really love the summer/beach/fishing.

With that said, I would, at this point, love to say spring is just a few weeks away but looking at the connections and the models in the 7-14 day period...man oh man...I still think another major storm is going to be squeezed out before we put the shorts on.

 

quick little update.

The storm tomorrow comes in and perhaps starts off as snow..then sleet..then freezing rain and of course rain.

But west of 287 and into northern sussex and in the hudson valley...that icing may stick around a bit more and could be a tricky rush hour.

Then the temps drop and say goodbye to an early spring temp wise...temps will remain below and at times, well below normal for the next two weeks after this warmup.

Current possible storms after this is the march 2nd storm which I would say is less than 30% and then around the 7th of March which I would rank high for a long term storm ...perhaps around 60%. That storm would be a big problem...but the huge key here is if the models keep the storm until this friday. If its still there...have to watch it.