Is there a projected late round/UDFA QB in this year's draft capable of becoming this year's Brady or Romo? I'm creating this thread both to read others' thoughts on this and to have my nominee on record. I truly believe that Colby Cameron is that guy in the right system, which coincidently I think is the WCO. Below is my ode to Cameron. When you look at highlights of Quinton Patton, you can't help but notice the accuracy of the Cameron. Then when you look up his stats this past year, you can't help but to wonder why he's considered a late round prospect. The guy threw for over 4,000 yards at nearly 8 YPA, so he was not dinking and dunking. Despite putting the ball up 500+ times, he threw a whopping just 5 INTs compared to his 31 TDs. He broke the NCAA records for most consecutive pass attempts without an interception in a season (428), previously by Russell Wilson, and in a career (444). All this while completing just under 70% of his passes. The knocks on him are size, arm strength, level of competition and scheme; I address each one below. Size - He measured in at a hair over 6-2 at the East West Shrine Game. Height is significant cause you can add on weight but not height. I believe not breaking that 6-2 is huge since anything below that threshold greatly diminishes your opportunities to be a starting NFL QB. He weighed in at 210, though not ideal, there is room to add on more weight. For the sake of comparison, he's 1/8 of an inch taller than Tyler Wilson and 8 pounds lighter. Arm strength - His arm does not wow you on tape but reports out of the East West Shrine Game practice week was that scouts were surprised by his compact delivery, zip and ball velocity. He's going to be one of the "throwing quarterbacks" at the Combine this year so he'll have plenty of chances to dispel any concerns about his arm in from of all the scouts. Level of Competition - When LA Tech played ridiculous game against the SEC's Texas A&M, all the highlights were of Quinton Patton and Johnny Football but Cameron tore up A&M's 14th ranked defense. He went 44 for 58 (75.9% CMP) for 450 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs. Hate to pick on Tyler Wilson again but against the same defense, Wilson went 29 for 59 (49.2% CMP) for 373 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Scheme - I don't think not running a "pro" offense is as much of a hindrance as it use to be since the line between college and pro-style offenses has been blurred with the new wave of QBs coming in. While Tech's offense is more unconventional than most (the center calls in the plays and not the QB), I think it's helped Cameron become better than most at reading coverages and making the proper adjustments.
Sean Renfree, QB Duke http://video.theacc.com/1855904650001/Memphis-vs-Duke-Highlights/videos/ It appears that the pass rusher gets his hand on the ball on the interception, but if not, a bad play. Look at the touch on the deep ball to Vernon, and the arm strength on the second TD shown. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fslT6v3ztM The Belk Bowl against Cincinnati complete http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3BHd_JIvfs Duke Clemson complete game I am pretty sure I saw a UNC Duke complete game but can't find right now.
Any QB with a decent arm and some real experience playing at a high level has the possibility of turning into a great QB if given enough resources and an opportunity to play. 99% of them won't but that's more a matter of opportunity, attitude, resources given them and then just blind luck in some cases. Of the guys in this year's draft just look at the people who have started at QB for a good program for several years and then add in anybody who has been individually recognized as an outstanding player wherever he happened to play. Tom Brady played QB in one of the top 10 programs in the country at Michigan. He wasn't a big star there and he was looking over his shoulder a lot but he was doing that at a strong program in a big conference. It was almost shocking to me how good he was when he got his feet on the ground in New England with Weis and company promoting a talent level that just was not apparent at Michigan. Tony Romo was at a Div1-AA school at Eastern Illinois and not playing against a high level of competition but he won the Walter Payton Award as a senior, given to the outstanding offensive player in Div1-AA. Previous winners of the award included Steve McNair and Brian Westbrook . It was pretty clear that Romo had some game in him it was just a question of whether or not he'd get an opportunity to play in the NFL or not.
Renfree, eh? I am scared shitless by the name Dave Fucking Brown. Pass on that kid. Colby Cameron kid... looks like he has some funky throwing mechanic. I'd pass.
That is what I like best about Renfree, he didn't have top talent around him, and still preformed against big schools, or at least superior talent schools.
You know we are talking about an UDFA, or at best last 2 rounds, right? Who the hell is Dave Brown, and how does he relate to the player? Because he went to Duke in the late 80's early 90's? By that logic, you would have to pass on every player that comes out.
The problem specifically with Renfree is that the injury is going to remove his chances to perform before the draft. It's going to be all film on him and that's why he may well be a UDFA. Then you have the question of how ready he is going to be in camp this year and whether he's going to be able to compete or not. He's definitely one of the guys you look at as a possibility to come out of nowhere and be good but I think it's reasonable to suggest that is a post-2014 chance. He has a lot of obstacles to overcome to play in the NFL this year. If the Jets could sign him to a futures contract after the draft with no real expectation that he'd compete this season and if that move didn't have a big impact on the cap I'd be happy to see them sign him. No reason not to take shots at the most valuable position on the field when those shots are risk-free or almost so.
What if it's a 6th or 7th rounder? Those are the kind of picks which are unlikely to even make the roster regardless of what position is chosen.
6th and 7th rounds are one of the places your competitive depth come from. They're often a place where you get a K, P or other special teams asset. If Renfree is healthy then he's a solid take late, being a lottery shot as a real asset. Injured I think he is a reach there. If the Jets can get him as a UDFA then they should look at that. Collin Klein would be a better late round flyer than Sean Renfree because he'll be switched to WR in the NFL if QB doesn't work out and he's healthy enough to compete in camp this year. He's probably not as good a QB prospect as Renfree but he has more value on a thin roster and still presents the possibility of being a surprise at QB.
He is projected to become an UDFA, and his game tape will be the only reason someone takes a flier on him. They will look at his game abilities, and compare them to the scheme they will run. The thing that they will be able to do is interview him, and other key personnel. In the league there are respected opinions, and Cutcliff compares his work ethic to that of the Manning Brothers. He would know. I have no illusions of Renfree being a household name in 2013, just as Tom Brady did not play his rookie year, or in any year after that. Say the Jets do take a Flier on Renfree in the 6th, 7th rounder, is there a player that is going to make an impact there besides him? He would be a low risk high reward player, and you can't ask for anything more from a 6-7th round pick. Now, he won't be able to show anything in the meat bowl, but he will be ready by June for OTAs and Mini Camps. (Pectoral surgery is a 6 month process). At the very least, he is a solid scout team QB for year 1, as he does hold the skill set of a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning. (I am by no means saying he is as good or will be as good as either.) Edit: The biggest thing hurting his status is not that he is hurt, but that he went to Duke.
I don't think he quite fits into the Romo/Brady role, because he'll be picked up before, but I really love the potential of Tyler Bray in this draft. Unfortunately, he's not a fit for the WCO, so I doubt we pick him, but I think with some good coaches, this guy could turn into a very good QB. The deep throws he makes are just beautiful, and actually does remind me a lot of Brady with them. He's inconsistent on the short and intermediate routes, but he also has terrible footwork. Half of his throws are off of his backfoot, running, or off balance. But the arm talent is there, the size is there, and if he corrects his mechanics, I think he'll be a very good QB. Obviously he can bust pretty easily as well. I like Renfree, but they are all falling for a reason, and while there are gems like Brady/Romo, there are tons that don't work out at all.
Frankly, I do like his height; and his stat numbers in general. Pretty accurate. BUT His INT number is quite a bit high (38 in 3 years. Yikes), despite that his sack number is low (career 4.4% sack rate) (This means he is either making dumb reads constantly, or is just forcing it just for the sake of it. Either way, a big no-no.) Factor that his competition is pretty weak - and you get a more accurate version of Mark Sanchez - more accurate, but still dumb throws, and unnecessary INTs. If Jets can snag him for 7th or UDFA, I wouldn't mind that frankly.
This is were stats can be deceiving. We don't know how the interception accured, and I am not condoning by any means. My point is how many were bad throws, how many were bad routes, how many were dropped/tipped paasses. If you watch the game tape, they run a quick passing, timing route scheme. He appears to go through his progressions well, and make the right throws. Sanchez on the other hand had tunnel vision, and would throw the ball into bad situations. Another thing to look at is the talent around him, and again, I won't pretend to know. I suggest to you, and anyone, watch the tape I linked. Watch his pocket presence, his footwork, his eyes, and his accuracy. That being said, he does appear to have some trouble throwing to his left, but as a right handed passer, that is the hardest throw for any QB. I re-watched the Clemson link last night and made a couple notices. Q1 - 10:46 the ball fake and then the throw. Watch his eyes during the ball fake. Q1 - 8:51 his movement in the pocket, and his eyes down field Q1 - 7:13 his touch on the deep ball, and the lack of stride. In Q2 notice how high he holds the ball on his chest, and how quick the release is. (I say Q2 since the camera angle shows his front side)
I've seen his delivery; it looks pretty smooth and compact IMO. I don't see anything wrong with it. That's why I'm curious to know what it is you are seeing with his mechanics.
He needs to close the gap in his feet. the tape i just watched was against texas a&m. 1st quarter. Holds the ball high, but elbow may drop, elongating the throwing motion. the ball is gone quick though. I dont know if it was just early game gitters, but he just didnt appear comfortable in pocket. seemed rushed. i would be happy to watch more tape, but it took me 10 minutes to find that. bad quality video didnt help. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dhi8cUdeB-I Edit: 59:22 shows a replay of what thought. He has the ball high, but when he starts the throw the ball drops down to his belt. Very long motion, and appears to put everything into a 40 yard pass.
1. Any good QB's throwing motion starts with the footwork. (This is where Tebow fails from the get-go.) Cameron has weird footwork - that does not allow him to transfer the strength he built up from the low ground up to the ball. 2. When I was taught how to throw football (well. I had weak shoulder so I ended up playing MLB instead but that aside) the rules were: a. the ball should be kept high. b. when you are cocking your arm for throw, the ball should go directly from your chest to the behind of your head c. and you should deliver the ball with the torque generated from your planting foot. (left foot for lefties, right foot for righties.) From that rule I was taught, I am forced to think that, in Cameron's motion, there isn't much I like about it. The only saving grace for him is, the ball leaves his hands quick somehow. He still has some weird wind up motion that drops the ball below waist (a very good cause for fumble.) This was why I told you "He had some funky throwing mechanics."
