Euro came out and still no cigar. What people are seeing is a classic ridge setting up out west creating a gulf of mexico to main straight path for any precip to follow. That pattern sometimes sets up the most classic of storms. Some models say yes..the nogaps shows an every decade blizzard that resembles the blizzard of 96 (my favorite of all time)..but other models say huh? We shall see.
Oh..and as far as timing..still showing a later Saturday night start time. Hopefully by Wednesday the models narrow down if and when this will really happen. Would feel a crap load better if everyone was on a flight Saturday morning..but again...this isn't written in stone.
Bored? C'mon Jay. Doncha know you are the main reason to come into the BS section right now? "What ? a storm coming...holdup, I gotta guy" :beer: pffft, the main difference between you an Al Roker is that you don't shit your pants....
Thanks as always for the info. All but 4 of our guests leave no later than Saturday 9:30am so looks like we are largely ok unless the timing changes drastically. Thanks again.
Sounds dead on Drew. Its been at those numbers for a week now on and off. The big question is if the storm comes north enough. Probably does. It does a few outliers that throw 8" to a few...but I wouldnt go there now.
lol..Dont get me started on Al Roker. Al Roker is a guy that runs behind the curtain and asks the nerds..whats going ti happen!! Are you sure??? Can I say that??? Al Roker couldnt identify a Thunderstorm occuring outside his house. But ty RT..and again...Its just a bit of chewing off this and checking out that. No brilliance here.
Man Jil...you got hammered bud..holy crap. Yeah..especailly the Nogaps. The nogaps is showing a storm that has few equals and USUALLY would be easily dismissed. But and BIG but, it has been on to huge storms. Here is the deal though, I would love..LOVE to throw out there big storm but models are showing it.then losing it. Its not like the storm is 3 weeks away. Its 5 days away. There should be some agreement. None. Again, the reason for all of the clammer is because the models show the perfect setup..perfect. One thing I did see is that when you get so many players on the same field it usually takes 72 hours out for the models to say..OHHHH..ok..heres what will happen. So my prediction right now would be this. Thursday...on Thursday the models will spit out the answer. Might even be by tomorrow night. But its not going to be today because I just checked them and there is nothing to show monster storm. Wish I could say there was. But, I totally get the possibilities. Totally. Very cold high to the north...an Artic Jet stream possibly phasing with the northern and southern jet stream..check. All the merging very close to the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a warm front here before the weekend...check. But no merger..yet. Going to check some off models now.
Did a quick check...not there yet. Also, just checked the Wednesday event and looks like more of a 1-3 event here than a 3-6.
ooookkkkk...see, call me crazy..but being on tv everyday and pretty popular, I would pull a cheap prostitute request and swallow...the story that is. Why in Gods name would anyone on TV everyday repeat that story. To help others? NOBODY KNEW. Man oh man. Ok, quick up date. The storm we are tracking has just made landfall..in Alaska and will not have data ingested from the mainland USA until tomorrow afternoon...so my gut is starting to tell me that things could get interesting. I was checking out with a few people I know where the mistakes could be made and its all about the current cold front sweeping our way and where it stalls and sets up. Period. A storm will form and its going to carry itself right along that front. Right now the models are pretty much in agreement that the front will be well south of us keeping the storm south of us. But the key is where that front sets up.
Ok..quick update and a few changes. The storm for tomorrow night is on and seems to be a 3 to 6 on most boards. I just see 1 to 3 so middle ground would be 2 to 4 so lets go with that. New small system showed up on all the models today and its Friday night..not much and probably a 1-3. As far as the big system, here is a quote from a person I follow sometimes that tends to be a bit aggressive calling storms..but does an ok job: As I said previously many times, the pattern setting up for this weekend is ominous and is like a powder keg just waiting for a spark to set it off. At this moment in time it is appearing less likely that this storm will form, but the pieces of energy to produce this storm still remain over the open ocean of the Pacific where data sampling is sparse Again, you keep hearing so many pieces of the puzzle are in place except for one major thing, the models. Now as he mentioned and its consistant with a few others that have said it....lets wait till tomorrow night once this storm actually enters the U.S. to see what the models say then. THEN...the models continue to point out the biggest storm of the year ON THE MODELS for next weekend. Now this past storm was big but was done mostly with Atlantic moisture where nexts weeks possible storm gets the Gulf of Mexico involved..but again..the models have pointed at huge storms all winter long only to lose them. So..again...tomorrow nght 2-4 Friday night 1-3 Saturday night/ Sunday..big ???? with the potential for greatness and also the potential for 2-4 The end of next week major possible.
Gotcha Jay :beer: so we might have a somewhat better idea tonight but if this thing is picking up steam or going to happen the models should get a better feel for it Thursday :up:
