Exactly Why Tebow wont be an NFL QB.

Discussion in 'Tebowmania' started by Jetsetter34, Feb 3, 2013.

  1. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    The stylistic issues wouldn't mean anything at all if he was completing 58% of his passes and leading an offense on regular scoring drives. Instead he's having trouble completing 50% of his passes and the offense stalls out all the time with an occasional late drive for heroics when the defense has played a superhuman game.

    The reason Tebow's optics are so important is that his play blows chunks.

    Now throw in the fact that he's a terrible practice QB and you have the entire picture that NFL coaches are looking at when they decide Tebow can't play QB. If Rex wouldn't let him on the field nobody in the NFL will.

    That's just what it is.
     
  2. _Jet_

    _Jet_ Member

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    I am amazed so many insiders here who can speak for 32 head coaches.
     
  3. JFjets

    JFjets New Member

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    lol.:lol:

    I imagine there are quite a few NFL head coaches who wish their QB's play blew chunks badly enough to be responsible for 25 Offensive TD's in 16 starts.:rolleyes:

    That's more than about half the starters in the league in 2012, including multiple QB's whose teams were in the play-offs. Until you can figure out a way to erase those TD's and those wins from the NFL stat books, you just look stupid talking about how his play "looks". Like I said, there are a lot of coaches who'd rather lose in style than win ugly. And most of those guys won't be having a job as a head coach very long. By the way, do you recall the article after the season that quoted anonymous sources inside the Jets organization saying that Rex and other decision makers were frozen with fear to let Tebow start a few games at the end of the season because of the chance that he might have success and lead the team to wins? Doesn't sound to me like a coach who thought his back-up QB was so bad he couldn't possibly let him see the field. The same back-up QB, need I remind you, that made the Dolphins and the Jets look idiotic in 2011.
     
  4. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    No, definitely wasn't referring to "the truth".
     
  5. Dennis

    Dennis New Member

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    Let's look at Tebow as STARTING QUARTERBACK.

    In 16 starts, Tebow completed 162 of 342 passes (47.4%) for 2301 yds (6.7 YPA), 15 TDs and 9 INTs. That gives him a passer rating of 73.2.

    Yes, I'm ignoring Tebow's rushing, because passing is the basic function of a QB, NOT running.

    Looking at the numbers, Tebow comes across as a pretty mediocre passer. One who can be easily neutralized by simply containing him in the pocket and FORCING him to pass. That's the take on Tebow now. Until he can overcome that perception, no NFL team will be interested him as a QB. If he's willing to change positions, teams very well be interested in Tebow as a dual-threat RB/FB/TE who can pass...
     
  6. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    Pretty sure that it was JF who took a lot of time pointing out that Tebow's stats were a function of Fox's offense. That if you pass the ball fewer times, your overall numbers will be lower.

    Now, if you want, I can take Tebow's numbers and "normalize" them, that is, extend them out and you can see what they would have been had they asked him to throw more. Even with the sub 50% comp %, then numbers would have been drastically different, and save Comp %, his numbers would have been on par with some of the better QBs in the NFL.
     
  7. Jetsetter34

    Jetsetter34 New Member

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    well if thats the case just "normalize" everyones stats! Lets see James Casey had 1 carry for 6 yards for the Panthers. if he carried the ball as much as adrian peterson did he would have had 348 carries for 2,088 yards! Holy shit! he's fucking going to be great!

    This game is so fun! Lets or you can look at a career as a WHOLE, you know like scouts, gm, owners, coaches ... or anyone inlvoved with football at any level anywhere and so OK this is the players body of work... then break down, was it consistent? how did the numbers get produced? in which situations? how did the team do? what does that look like down the road? and on and on. what they dont do is EXTRAPOLATE numbers out because they KNOW ITS ABSOLUTE BULLSHIT TO DO SO.

    How did those rushing numbers look this year? did anyone notice tebows production was worse in his last 5 starts than his first five or middle five?

    you can make up numbers all day long... at the end of the day.. NOBODY BELIEVES TIM TEBOW IS A QB. NOBODY!
     
  8. Demosthenes9

    Demosthenes9 Well-Known Member

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    Wow, really? A freaking sample size of 1 ? Are you daft? Or do you just not understand statistics ?

    Example, you can't take a single game for a QB, or any other player, and extrapolate a career out of it. But, when you get up to 15-20 games, you can do so with more accuracy. As the sample size grows, the more accurate and predictive it will be.

    WRT passing, Tebow had 16 starts and 342 attempts. That's a fair sample size in that it's a decent enough number of attempts, but also, it's against a multitude of teams, in different games, under various scenarios.

    As far as "nobody" believing in Tebow, I do believe that Bill Parcells and Mike Ditka did last year when they both gave it to Merril Hoge. Gruden seems to believe in him. As does Steve Young.

    So much for your belief that NOBODY believes in Tebow.
     
  9. Dennis

    Dennis New Member

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    Fox's Offense was predicated on Tebow's ability to throw. They had him throw in situations where he was able to.

    If he had thrown MORE, then he'd be throwing in situations beyond his abilities. He wouldn't have been AS successful, he'd have been LESS successful.

    So you can't honestly extrapolate his numbers in that way.
     
  10. JFjets

    JFjets New Member

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    - Tebow/Broncos
    - Wilson/Seahawks
    - Griffin/Redskins
    - Newton/Panthers
    - Kaepernick/Niners


    Discussion over.
     
  11. Dennis

    Dennis New Member

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    What exactly did did they say? That Timmy is a great QB? Or that he's a great football player? Or that he just wins?

    Did they say anything of substance? Or were they just going thru the motions of defending him to keep the Tebow story going for ESPN?
     
  12. JFjets

    JFjets New Member

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    Dennis, you are either:

    a) ignorant
    b) dishonest
    c) in denial
    d) all of the above


    I'm going with "d) all of the above"

    Tebow passed approximately 25% more often in his 2010 starts (under a different head coach) than in his 2011 starts (under Fox), and the Broncos Offense under him scored almost 7 more points per game (almost 25% more per game) than his Offense in 2011. Coincidence? I think not. I asked you a few weeks ago to explain it and I never saw an answer from you. From the looks of things, you still aren't ready in any capacity to give it a game shot at answering my question.

    No "extrapolation" is needed. We've already seen how the Offense did when he threw the ball more often. They scored more points. Consistently. Period.
     
  13. Quientus

    Quientus New Member

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    Statistics can be a "biatch" ...
     
  14. Dennis

    Dennis New Member

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    Really?

    • 10/23/2011 against Detroit - 39 passes, 10 points
    • 11/06/2011 at Oakland - 21 passes, 38 points
    • 11/13/2011 at KC - 8 passes, 17 points
    • 11/17/2011 against NYJets - 20 passes, 17 points
    • 12/04/2011 at Minnesota - 15 passes, 35 points
    • 12/11/2011 against Chicago - 40 passes, 13 points
    Tebow threw far fewer times against Oakland, KC, and the Jets, yet Denver scored far fewer points against Detroit.

    Tebow threw far more times against Detroit and Chicago and yet Denver scored far more points than against Oakland, and Minnesota.

    That's exactly the opposite of what you claimed...
     
  15. JFjets

    JFjets New Member

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    He threw approximately 25% more passes, on average, as a percentage of called plays during his 2010 starts, and the Offense scored almost 7 more points per game.

    Why? Can you explain it?

    It has been pointed out here more times than can be counted that the Offense John Fox ran was quite different from what Tebow had to work with in his 2010 starts. At least one chronic Tebow critic here has admitted, flat out, that the 62% run/38% pass Offense that Fox ran with Tebow in 2011 would naturally be a low-scoring Offense. I'm not sure why you're having a hard time understanding that such a run-heavy offense would score less, and a more balanced pass/run offense would score more. Tebow's overall passing stats from 2010 to 2011 weren't that much different, but the play-calling was very much different. In a system with more creative Offensive play-calling in 2010, Tebow's Offense scored more points when he threw the ball a higher % of the time than in 2011. There is no debate. Was it the passing or the play-calling that was the difference? Be careful how you answer....
     
  16. Jetsetter34

    Jetsetter34 New Member

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    hahaha you're such a fuck wad. Anyone that matters? Does Ditka coach anymore? Young running a team is he? Gruden sign a contract to run a team in the past few days has he?

    You know who believes in Tebow? People that dont have their jobs to lose thats who.

    I bet you $1,000 that none of those guys given a choice would pick Tebow to run their team. you know it, I know it and now I'm pretty sure tebow knows it.
     
  17. Jetsetter34

    Jetsetter34 New Member

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    you're a moron. you know he owns you right? youre saying when TEBOW threw more he scored more... but when he did throw more in 2011 HE SCORED LESS than when he THREW LESS. his two biggest passing games were detroit and chicago --- guess what idiot he scored fewer points than normal (16 was his average he scored 13 average in those two games) so why did it work in 2010 and not 2011? well two reasons ... one he played teams in 2010 that A- sucked, B - had nothing to lose and C - couldnt care less if they showed up and the second reason no tape. by the way what was his record? oh yeah 1-2.
     
    #37 Jetsetter34, Feb 10, 2013
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2013
  18. Concerned_Citizen

    Concerned_Citizen New Member

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    ...and it you are a "suck ass" throwing the ball, Fox isn't going to let you throw it as much. Plain and simple.

    It isn't a function of the Fox offense either. you guys have yet to explain why Fox's offense threw it a lot more under Orton.

    Plus, a lot more pass plays were called, they just didn't show up on the stat sheet as a pass attempt because he either hung on to the ball too long and got sacked, or tucked it in and ran. sometimes that approach worked and sometimes it didn't.

    But to say Tebow didn't throw simply because Fox is too damn conservative just isn't true. he had Orton throwing 30+ times a game. Almost had that many calls for tebow to throw in Miami and against Detroit too before they realized it simply wasn't going to work. So they did more run options and that did enough to win some games because it threw teams for a loop. Once the other teams caught on, it was back to the puntfest I've been hammering on ever since.
     
  19. Concerned_Citizen

    Concerned_Citizen New Member

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    I was the one that admitted the scoring would be lower. But you also completely missed the point behind it. They ran the ball a lot more because they simply didn't believe in Tebow as a passer. he was a horror show in practice, and he was dog butt bad throwing the ball when trying to run a more conventional offense against Miami and Detroit. They had to do somethign else because it wasn't working running the same offense that they ran with Orton. the knock on Orton was that he was good at moving the ball, he just couldn't punch it in for 7. Enter Tebow, and trips to scoring territory became much less frequent.

    So they ran it more. That's what tebow does, that is what his strong point is. Everyone knows it, and McCoy knew it too, which is why they did it. They had no interrest in watching tebow throw dirt missiles all day in hopes that his passing eventually comes around to where it needed to be.

    You keep asking why he got less points in 2011 than in 2010. Not sure why you think you have a case there. They played 3 non-playoff teams that year and obviously checked out for the season. Houston had one of the worst passing defenses EVER. Oakland was Oakland, and San Diego clearly wasn't the same team that had owned the Broncos for the few years prior. Nothing special there. 2010 is just too small a sample size. I really think you are making more there than there actually is. the interim coach Studesville wasn't exactly thrilled with the idea of letting Tebow throw either. He was still at about 47% after then too. The Tebow offense simply caught a few teams at the right time after they checked out and none had any real idea on just how much he was going to run the ball until it was too late.

    Sorry, I'm just not buying that Fox's conservative nature is the reason Tebow's numbers are down, or why they ran a more run heavy offense. HE THREW THE BALL WITH ORTON.

    It was a reflection on what they had been seeing from Tebow. PERIOD. Jets didn't seem all that impressed with his passing ability either, did they? that's 2 teams now. Do they have it all wrong? perhaps, but as I look at the other 30 eams, I'm not getting a sense that they think highly of him as a passer either. Are you?
     
  20. christian_cat

    christian_cat Banned

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    I love Tim Tebow he's a good quarter back who wasn't given a fair shot by Rex Ryan to play. More important he's a wonderful human being. Everything Tim stands for his faith, his values, and how much he helps everyone around him. Tim Tebow uses the platform God has given him to spread the word of Jesus Christ. He should get to play the position he loves and that's quarterback. The NFL should have some team that will take such a good quarterback for their team.
     

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