You posting on the Jags forum too? I'm sure you feel you have a "civic duty" to explain to all the reasons why Gabbert sucks.
Actually, you have implied just exactly that more times than I could possibly count. Nope, never said that, I just said they did what they should have done to teams that were led by back-up's and some of the worst starters in the league. A defense that was even close to "great" wouldn't be ranked 24th in the league. Doesn't mean they didn't play well at all, all season long, just means they didn't do it very often. And, those five 40+ point games do tend to hurt the average, don't you think? Would you mind explaining for me just how, exactly, the Denver Defense held 6 teams to 15 points or less? You have spent a great deal of time and effort in trying to convince us that Tebow's Offensive performance was the worst possible thing for the Denver Defense and that is why they gave up 4 games of 40+ points with Tebow under Center. If that is the case, then what, exactly, is the explanation for why they held 6 teams to 15 points or less? Same Tebow was under center, same poor completion %, same poor 3rd down conversion and 3 and out stats. Could it be that the Denver Defense looked pretty good in those games for the very simple reason that they were playing against very weak Offense after very weak Offense piloted by back-up's and some of the worst starters in the league??? Like I have been saying for a long time..... Well, the easy answer is that that isn't even close to true. The more involved answer is that some stats are way, way more important and indicative of QB "success" and "wins" than others, which is something that you apparently haven't caught on to yet. Yes, he was. You have acknowledged that they would be a low scoring offense running the ball that often. I have shown again and again that Tebow threw the ball almost 25% more often in his 2010 starts, and they scored almost 25% more points per game. Coincidence? I think not. He wasn't completing a high rate of his passes in 2010, either, so what happened, exactly, to drop their points per game total down in 2011? You still haven't given a remotely serious answer to that question. And no, defenses did not have him locked down during that 1-4 stretch. He played very well against New England the first time and against Pittsburgh. So, what's Eli Manning's excuse? He had 2 more 4th quarter comebacks than Tebow. Was that because he had 3 quarters of ineptitude? Of the top 10 QB's with the most 4th quarter comebacks in the 2011 season, SEVEN of them were in the play-off's. Of the top 10 this year, SIX were in the play-off's. Is that because all those QB's sucked for the first 3 quarters and that's why they had so many 4th quarter comebacks? See, apparently you haven't realized that when you use one standard to judge Tebow, and another to judge all other NFL QB's, it will come back to bite you in the backside quite frequently. lol.:lol: You need the name Marion Barber etched into your gravestone. You have a very unnatural obsession with him. One that is made all the more unnatural by the fact that he wouldn't even be a footnote in that game if not for the dropped TD pass by DT and the blocked chip shot field goal by Prater. Obviously, you think the answers to all of your questions are obvious. Someone other than a simpleton (or a Tebow hater) would realize that the outcome of an NFL football game is just a little more complicated than a simple yes or no answer to the above questions. Tebow's run with the Broncos last year is proof of that. The fact that the Niners and Ravens are playing in the Super Bowl this year is proof of that. There were 19 teams in 2011 that had a better 3rd down conversion rate than the Broncos and yet didn't even make the play-off's. There are some stats that are more important than others. Come on, dude, get real. When are you ever going to acknowledge that Tebow was shockingly good at making game-changing plays when they were most needed? That is the definition of clutch. Tebow had as many 13-plus-point fourth-quarter comebacks in his first 4 NFL starts as John Elway - the Comeback King - had in his entire 16 year NFL career. Does "he just wins" really bother you that much? Does it hurt your ego that you can't "quantify" why Tebow was able to make important plays when he did and help drive his team to success and wins? You know full well what I'm suggesting and you don't want to answer or face up to it. The Broncos had a very respectable 3rd down conversion rate, 3 and out rate and completion rate in the 1st Patriots game. Tebow got pretty good reviews for his play in that game. They had a much worse 3 and out rate and completion rate in the 2nd Patriots game. The Patriots went up and down the field scoring at will in both games. For your theory about completion %, 3rd down and 3 and outs to be true, the Patriots shouldn't have scored anywhere near as much in the 1st game as they did in the 2nd game. But they did. Bye bye theory.
This one 's for you, CC. :beer: Most pertinent parts in bold. I don't expect you to read it, but don't say I didn't explain Tebow's efficient play at QB. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/11/29/tim.tebow/index.html Kerry J. Byrne>COLD HARD FOOTBALL FACTS Tebow's success due to production and protection, not magic Despite criticisms, Tim Tebow has outplayed almost every QB he's faced Tebow's ability to limit turnovers has been a crucial element in his success Tebow has produced TDs on 6% of his touches, better than some elite QBs. Tim Tebow may not be the NFL's best passer, but he's finding other ways to be successful. The Cold, Hard Football Facts are not just drinking the Tim Tebow Kool-Aid. We're mixing up big batches, grabbing innocent football fans off the street and pumping tubes of it down their throats -- much like French farmers force-feed geese to fatten the bird's liver and make tasty foie gras. OK, that's overstating the case a bit. Foie gras is not so tasty. But the Cold, Hard Football Fact of the matter is that there is a fundamentally solid statistical foundation beneath the success of the Denver Broncos with Tebow at quarterback. Put most simply, Tebow consistently outplays the other team's quarterback, often by wide margins. This superior play is the No. 1 reason for Denver's sudden success -- now 5-1 with Tebow at QB this year after a dismal 1-4 start. But these superior performances seem lost on even the most knowledgeable football minds, like that of Broncos executive and Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway, for example. Elway was asked last week on Denver sports radio 102.3 The Ticket if the Broncos were "any closer" to having its proverbial QB of the future on the field. He replied with a blunt "no" and added later, "we gotta get better in the passing game." Tebow's career completion percentage of 47.1 in the NFL is well below modern standards. But completion percentage is only one small part of the story and not a very meaningful one at that. So Elway and most observers seem to treat Tebow like a circus freak, a statistically deformed football curiosity who wins games in spite of his own feeble ability to pass the football. You can win one or maybe two games in the NFL with some kind of fluky effort at QB. But the statistical length and breadth of NFL history shows that teams that win consistently do the same things well over and over -- and those same things begin and end with the quarterback position. And the Broncos are no exception. Superior All-Around Production At QB There's no doubt that Tebow's passing accuracy has been spotty at times. At the end of the day, though, he has consistently outplayed the other team's quarterbacks. The problem is that most analysts are limited in their ability to analyze and compare quarterbacks with anything more concrete than the old eye test. Or they look at stats that simply do not matter at the end of the day, such as passing yards, and can't figure out how Tebow is winning games. Smarter analysts might know to look at critical measures of passing success, such as yards per attempt or passer rating -- indicators that traditionally have a very high correlation to victory. But even those indicators fail to tell the whole story of Tim Tebow. Enter Cold, Hard Football Facts.com's Real Quarterback Rating, which we introduced over the summer and which has quickly proven itself the most important indicator in football outside of final score. CHFF Real Quarterback Rating measures all aspects of quarterback play, passing, rushing, sacks, fumbles, etc., and spits it out in a number substantially similar to passer rating and that uses the same formula as passer rating. (Passer rating, while extraordinarily useful in its own right, measures only passing and nothing else -- even if many fans and analysts erroneously refer to it as "quarterback rating.") Our introduction of Real QB Rating this year has proven fortuitous. After all, it provides a perfect way to compare Tebow to opposing passers. (Get a full explanation of Real Quarterback Rating in the footnotes below.) Here's how Tebow stacks up against each opposing quarterback this year in traditional passer rating and in Real Quarterback Rating. Week 7 -- Denver 18, Miami 15 Matt Moore: 92.6 passer rating; 69.6 Real QB Rating Tim Tebow: 91.7 passer rating; 80.5 Real QB Rating Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+10.9) Week 8 -- Detroit 45, Denver 10 Matt Stafford-Shaun Hill: 126.0 passer rating; 118.2 Real QB Rating Tim Tebow: 56.8 passer rating; 48.2 Real QB Rating Real QB Rating advantage: Stafford (+70.0) Week 9 -- Denver 38, Oakland 24 Carson Palmer: 79.7 passer rating; 69.4 Real QB Rating Tim Tebow: 98.1 passer rating; 108.2 Real QB Rating Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+38.8) Week 10 -- Denver 17, Kansas City 10 Matt Cassel-Tyler Palko: 73.2 passer rating; 67.9 Real QB Rating Tim Tebow: 102.6 passer rating; 122.7 Real QB Rating Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+54.8) Week 11 -- Denver 17, N.Y. Jets 13 Mark Sanchez: 67.9 passer rating; 62.2 Real QB Rating Tim Tebow: 61.3 passer rating; 87.1 Real QB Rating Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+24.9) Week 12 -- Denver 16, San Diego 13 Philip Rivers: 77.1 passer rating, 68.8 Real QB Rating Tim Tebow: 95.4 pass rating, 94.4 Real QB Rating Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+25.6) In other words, Tebow is no statistical circus freak winning in spite of himself. Tebow's Broncos are winning because he consistently outperforms the opposing quarterback when you take into account all aspects of production: passing, running, sacks, total touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles. In fact, he consistently outperforms them by a wide margin. Denver is 5-0 when Tebow produces a higher Real QB Rating than the opposing quarterback and 0-1 when the other team has the advantage. And those results are no coincidence. After all, it turns out that no stat in football outside final score -- indeed, maybe no stat in North American sports, period -- is more important than Real QB Rating this season when it comes time to separate winners and losers. At Cold, Hard Football Facts.com Insider, for example, we track the Correlation to Victory of Real Quarterback Rating, all of our "Quality Stats" and many other indicators: we tell you often teams win games when they win each statistical battle. Real QB Rating is easily the most important indicator in football. Here's the Correlation to Victory of several notable indicators through Week 12 of the 2011 season. Real QB Rating -- 156-20 (.886) Passer rating -- 135-41 (.767) Real Passing YPA (which includes sacks) -- 124-52 (.705) Passing YPA -- 121-55 (.688) Rush yards -- 119-56 (.680) Rush YPA -- 89-87 (.506) Passing yards -- 80-96 (.455) The numbers are extraordinarily telling: gaudy passing days do not help you win football games and a more prolific day pounding out yards on the ground is only slightly more important. Instead, more effective all-around play at quarterback wins football games -- regardless of how many yards a quarterback produces through the air. And right now, Tebow gives Denver more effective all-around play at quarterback almost every week. Can Tebow do it over the long haul? Can he consistently pad his stats and performances by running the football like a college quarterback? Probably not. Sooner or later he'll have to pass the ball better, like Elway said. But that doesn't change the fact that, right now, Denver's 5-1 record is easy to explain: Tebow is consistently better and more productive than the other team's quarterback.
rest of the article. Tebow's Quietly Historic Production There are two underlying reasons why Tebow is so effective, two reasons that explain his impressive Real Quarterback Rating week after week. 1. He gets the ball in the end zone more often than any QB in football today 2. He protects the football better than any QB in football today The Broncos clearly have not scored a lot of points with Tebow at quarterback. In fact, Denver has averaged just 19.3 points per game in Tebow's six starts and has scored 18 points or fewer in five of those games. And clearly, the defense has improved dramatically in recent weeks, either purely as coincidence or as a by-product of the fact that Tebow has helped the team improve in all areas by protecting the football. But Tebow himself has been deadly with the ball in his hands. He produces touchdowns at an amazing clip, better than any quarterback in football in his brief career. Here's a comparison of Tebow vs. some of the more prolific quarterbacks in recent history. Career percentage of touches that result in a TD: Tim Tebow -- 6.0 percent Aaron Rodgers -- 5.7 percent Peyton Manning -- 5.5 percent Tom Brady -- 5.1 percent Drew Brees -- 4.7 percent John Elway -- 3.9 percent Wow. Tebow may not pass the ball effectively. But he's produced an incredible 22 touchdowns (13 passing, nine rushing) in just 368 touches (225 pass attempts, 121 rush attempts, 22 sacks). Nobody in football gets the ball in the end zone more often. More importantly, Tebow takes incredibly good care of the football. We track something at Cold, Hard Football Facts called the "interception ladder." It shows us that every interception decreases your chances of winning by about 20 percentage points. In other words, interceptions are destructive plays that severely limit a team's ability to win games. But the Broncos are winning not just because Tebow protects the football, but because he protects it better than any QB in the game today. Here's how he stacks up against some of the more prolific QBs in the game today. Career interception percentage: Tim Tebow -- 1.78 percent Aaron Rodgers -- 1.83 percent Tom Brady -- 2.2 percent Drew Brees -- 2.71 percent Peyton Manning -- 2.75 percent John Elway -- 3.1 percent Add in that Tebow has lost just one fumble in his career (with four INT) and his turnover rate is an incredibly miniscule 1.4 percent. Tebow has suffered just two turnovers all year, one interception and one fumble. Both of those turnovers came in the Detroit game, his lone loss this year. He has a clean slate, zero turnovers, in Denver's five victories this year. We're not trying to extrapolate too much out on Tebow's career. Clearly, he's played only a handful of games. The other passers on those lists played over the long haul. A lot can change between here and the end of his career -- whenever and wherever that may come. But for right here, and right now, Denver is winning because Tebow is consistently the best and most productive quarterback on the field. * (An explanation of Real Quarterback Rating. The indicator is calculated just like passer rating, which is based upon four factors: completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD percentage and interception percentage. You need five raw pieces of data to do the calculation: attempts, completions, yards, TDs and INTs. We use the same formula for Real QB Rating, but add in the impact of rush attempts, rush TDS, sacks and fumbles, in this manner: ATT (attempts) = pass attempts + rush attempts + plus sacks; ADV (advances) = completions + rush attempts. NetYds (net yards) = passing yards + rushing yards -- yards lost on sacks. TDs (touchdowns) = TDs passing + TDs rushing by QBs. TOs (turnovers) = interceptions + fumbles by QBs. QBR (Quarterback Rating). We then punch those five numbers into our passer rating calculator to spit out the Real QB Rating.) ColdHardFootballFacts.com is dedicated to cutting-edge analysis and to the "gridiron lifestyle" of beer, food and football. Follow them on Twitter and Facebook. Email comments to siwriters@simail.com.
I'm at work and can't check stats right now, but I imagine those numbers are badly skewed by the way Tebow was used prior to becoming a starter. He'd be inserted when the Broncos Offense had reached a scoring position on the field. So someone else would have taken all of the touches to get the Offense down the field, leaving a single touch for Tebow to score a TD. Take away those games and only use the games where he was the starter and had to do all the grunt work himself. I'd bet a shiny new nickel that Timmy doesn't compare nearly as well to Rodgers, etc, then...
The % does drop, but it's still darn good. I just ran the numbers, and with starts only (also including the half game against SD where he came on in relief of Orton), Tebow's career TD % per touch (i.e. passing attempt or rushing attempt) is 4.64%, which would put him 5th on that list, meaning he gets the ball in the end zone just slightly less than Drew Brees, and a fair bit more than John Elway. Pretty swanky company. Just for the sake of comparison on that particular stat, the 2 QB's starting in the Super Bowl next week are as follows, for their career to date, not including "spot duty" for Kaepernick running the "wildcat" for San Fran before he was named the starter: - Kaepernick - 4.60% - Flacco - 3.80%
Just for fun, since some of you guys like to claim that Tebow is the worst QB in the league, here are his numbers compared to....some other guys. And no, I'm not saying all the guys on the list are in the running for worst QB in the league, as obviously some are not. Although, I'm pretty sure the worst QB in the league may well be on this list. This is just an exercise in derailing the hyperbole train some of you are so fond of riding on in continually describing Tebow as the "worst" QB in the NFL. I've never said he is the best, but I have always said he has been an "efficient" QB, despite the 3rd down, 3 and out and completion % stats, and this particular stat definitely shows that he makes more efficient use of his touches to score TD's at a higher clip than a lot of other QB's in the league. I didn't run the screen for all starters, and I'm sure there are a few who are better than Tebow, but there are also a lot who are worse. In this stat category. Just for the record, on the below list there are five QB's who were drafted high in the 1st rd., including two who were picked #1 overall. Career percentage of touches that result in a TD Tim Tebow - 4.64% Blaine Gabbert - 2. 56% Sam Bradford - 2.78% Ryan Fitzpatrick - 3.70% Christian Ponder - 3.57% Mark Sanchez - 3.77% Michael Vick - 3.97% Jake Locker - 3.48% Matt Cassel - 3.5% Kevin Kolb - 3.53% Andrew Luck - 3.83% Just to put this in perspective with real numbers instead of "percentages"....if John Elway's career percentage of touches that resulted in a TD was 4.64%, like Tebow's, instead of his actual 3.89%, he would have been responsible for 66 more TD's over the course of his career, which works out to a little more than 4 more TD's per season.
This thread was way to long for me to read,Was more of a book then a thread.Bottom line no team wants the Tebow drama, and I dont blame them. Tebow is a garbage practice player and just wants to be given a starting spot, it doesnt work that way
I don't understand. If Tebow is so efficient at scoring TD's, why doesn't anyone in the league want him for their QB?
Thank you, this was a tremendously helpful addition to this thread. Maybe because they're too busy defending their high draft picks of hot garbage like Blaine Gabbert?
Just looking at the stats myself. In his 3 starts in 2010, Tebow had 128 touches (81 passes, 41 runs, and 6 sacks) with 5 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs. With his 13 starts in 2011, Timmy had 308 passes, 38 sacks, and 130 runs (476 touches). To go with those he had 13 passing TDs and 6 rushing TDs. That's a total of 604 "touches" with 26 TDs. 26/604*100 = 4.3%. Not 4.64%. He only beats out Elway on your list. Of course Elway played in an era where the rules didn't so heavily favor Offenses and particularly the passing game. So that comparison is apples and oranges.
You guys always seem to fail to recognize the obvious, simple truths that everyone else in America has no problem seeing. It's like you purposely block out the obvious in order to defend your hero. In this case, the NFL is a win or don't have a job league. If teams thought Tebow gave them the best chance to win he'd surely have a spot. No one does. Probably because he sucks. BTW, the jaguars fired the GM and coach that picked Blaine Gabbert. They even have a different owner than when he was drafted. None of those guys are concerned with defending Gabbart over winning. That's just another BS tebot excuse.
Funny how you don't see even a little bit of irony in this statement, given that Tebow has a higher winning % than every guy on that list except Andrew Luck. You're trying to use the "efficient market theory" for the NFL to make the point that all players are always valued at their actual, correct value. That doesn't even work for the stock market (stocks get way undervalued all the time), and it certainly doesn't work for the NFL, otherwise guys like Ryan Lindley and Blaine Gabbert and multiple others wouldn't be starting QB's in the NFL.
Actually, we're both wrong. I forgot to include his 5 sacks in the 2011 play-offs, but you got a bunch of numbers mixed up. For starters, he had 31 rushing attempts as a starter in 2010, not 41. Secondly, he had 4 passing TD's as a starter in 2010, not 5. Thirdly, he had 317(including the half-game he took over for Orton against SD) passes as a starter in 2011, not 308. Fourth, he had 136 rushing attempts as a starter in 2011, not 130. Fifth, he had 14 passing TD's and 7 rushing TD's as a starter in 2011, not 13 and 6. And, on top of everything else, after you got all your numbers wrong, you then proceeded to deduct one of his TD's in your final calculation, giving you 4.3%, when the calculation you should have come up with, with your own, incorrect numbers, was 4.47%. Which is also incorrect, since you used bad numbers to begin with. All of my numbers were correct except forgetting to add in his 5 sacks in the play-offs. Doing that, his actual percentage is 4.59%. Now, with all that behind us..... If your main argument is that he's behind Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees on that list, and ahead of John Elway and a legion of other successful (and unsuccessful) NFL QB's, both past and present, then I think Tebow and his fans can probably live with that. To sum up: a) Behind some of the Greatest QB's in NFL History + b) Ahead of some of the Greatest QB's in NFL History = Worst Quarterback in the NFL? Right. Gotcha. :rofl::rofl2:
Hey buddy. Tebow blows. That's why he doesn't have a job as a starting QB. It has nothing to do with some financial theory. derp. Maybe next time you can work in the theory of relativity as to why Tebow isn't starting.
Probably best for you to just stick to this time honored favorite phrase of yours. It's just as ridiculous as everything else you say, but at least everyone is used to you saying "Tebow blows".
I'm not going back thru all those numbers again. Whatever you say. But tell me, if Tebow is just so productive whenever he touches the football, how come the Broncos led the NFL in 3 & outs and were ranked 25th for offensive scoring in 2011?
