Here we go jay..... Models on board early on for next week. Oh and coastal NE should get a decent thump mon night. Thanks for ur info.
Jay, something to think about in a week or so, I'll check back: I am on vacation the week after the Superbowl. I have a couple of destinations in mind, but it totally depends on the weather. So basically what I want to know, are there any major snow or ice events coming to the southern Appalachians before Feb 3? Which is the same as saying, any major weather coming to the East Coast in the next couple weeks from the south? I hope not, fingers firmly crossed. Its not that I don't want snow, but not enough that the roads are inaccessible. That would suck.
Nah CBG...I think you were reading what I said earlier wrong..maybe..but the Tuesday storm has been off the table for something huge now for about 4 days. Its the Friday storm we have turned our attention to. Tuesday we will get snow showers...along with the coldest temps in this region in the last 3 years at least. That will set the stage for the Friday storm. Quick update on that. Looks to start late Thursday which is good news in that Friday could be a shut down day for school and businesses. I will have more updates tonite but it looks like Eastern Pa...Central PA...NY state...NJ...Conn...Mass...VT.. RI....NH and Maine are all in the game for a possible foot plus. Where does the heaviest snow set up? Is there a rain snow line? Who gets the shaft? Everything on the table right now but this is the first real potential snow storm for many in the last couple years. Can it flop? Of course! But not a total flop...some will get hammered.
Right now Hiker, the storms on the table that are being followed are the following: Monday night/ Tuesday more of a Northeast Coast storm. Like Jizz said northern New England can get hammered but it gets its act together too late for us down here and you down there. Thursday Friday storm...not sure about the Southern Appalachians..I believe right now this will form a bit north with the rain snow line but with elevations in play..some areas down there could get a lot of snow. Then the next storm Im watching is Jan31st/ Feb2 area which could be a good storm but looks a bit warm right now. After these storms the long range looks to get warmer. Give me more details on location and timing as we get closer and I will follow for you. Hope that answers your question
Yep Jil....all models on board my friend but they all spit out something a little different..which makes it fun to track. Will the rain snow line be east or west of i 95. Will the snow make its way to the coast. Is there enough blocking to slow the storm down so it doesnt just dump a quick 6-9 and run. Is it a true Miller A or a miller b...a miller b being a storm that cuts towards the great lakes and transfers energy to another storm of the coast of NC. Not a big fan of the Miller b. The biggest question is....is it a sloppy storm with little organization but still produces over 6 which could be the case. Or does it get wound up and get its crap together with winds etc and dump over a foot? Right now...anyone calling for 6 plus inches of storm isnt telling you anything because organized or not..this storm has enough precip to do so. But does it get its act together and become a memorable storm? Hope so because after this there is only one more on the board the next couple weeks that has a shot...and we are running out of time this winter.
Where exactly in Maine..for instance, Westbrook Maine has a winter storm watch for 4-8 inches but is that west of you or east of you. East of Westbrook the numbers go up...west they go down. This Monday Tuesday storm is more for you guys up there but closer to the coast gets the bigger snows.
Sorry Hiker...I read that fast and replied. You are talking about the week after the Superbowl and all long term models only show a storm for around the 1st of Feb..and then a warmup east of the Mississippi. I will keep an eye but remind me during this week as we get closer.
Oh man, not the 31st, PLEEEEASE! I have to drive from LI to PA that morning to close on my new house. Staying over the night before is not an option, have to go to my local bank at 9am then drive... shit.
That storm..which is the last storm showing up on the long range models for awhile..is a huge question mark TBJ. I wouldn't sweat it yet...Im checking the long range now. As far as the Tuesday storm? and the Friday storm! right now it looks like the Tuesday cold front will produce heavy snow showers along with incredibly cold temps. Probably leaving a dusting..then it stops..and then another dusting..with heavy winds and heavy shots of snow that last no more than a half hour at a time. Overall nothing big but man...its going to be friggin cold...very cold Monday night through Thursday morning. The Friday storm is still on but the models haven't grasped what it actually is. Is it a disorganized blob of precip that dumps a half of foot of snow over a large area...or does it wind up and get its act together and drop 8-14 inches with strong winds and at times...blizzard conditions. Those questions will not be solved until the Tuesday night models and the actual storm enters the West Coast of the USA. As far as the long term storm that you were asking about TBJ....yes...its still on the radar but its so far off I wouldnt worry about yet. Now next week at this time if its still there, we will see. Also, after this storm, the activity continues. Long term models were showing a warmup and perhaps a nonactive period the early month of February. Not the case anymore. Storms are popping up every 5 days.
and the American Model (GFS) just came out with the Friday storm and all I can say is wow...this is a storm that might be the one for this winter. The very interesting components for this storm is the unusually cold air associated it with it. You ever here the phrase its too cold to snow? Well thats mixed with truth and nonsense. When a storm show very cold temps on a model run along with a lot of precip...that is the first warning sign that this could be one of those special storms. If the Euro shows something close to it at 1am tonite..we are officially on to a very possible big storm. Again...days out..but its only 5 now. The other thing picked up with this model run was much slower to get here..and thats the reason for major pick up in strength. That may also mean that Friday starts normal...but ends horribly.
Tough call. Right now you are on the northern fringe of precip and quite honestly..this storm continues to get stronger on models and shows more south of you..more snow sorry to say. Lol..no Brook..cant hold off 4 days on this one. The timing is pretty much written in stone give or take 6 hours. Right now it starts early Friday Am..which should give time for schools to close for the day..and ends Friday pm. Real quick hit but that too can change. Latest models show these ranges: 6-9" 25% of models 8-12" 50% of models 12-16" 25% of models. SOOO...being that a winter storm warning is for 6" plus...you should start to see Winter Storm watches posted by Wednesday night the latest...and Winter Storm Warnings by Thursday afternoon the latest. The bullseye RIGHT NOW seems to be the Poconos...all of North Jersey...most of Conn....central and Eastern MA. All of R.I. All of NYC and L.I. and southern NYS. Eastern Maine..Southern VT. The more north you go the percentages for over 6 go down. But the biggest thing I have taken from the models is this is a very rare storm because of the temps. Heavy snow with temps in the upper teens to lower 20's throughout increases snow ratios. You know..1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow under normal ratios. But when the temps get that low...1 inch of rain can equal 15" of snow..or 15-1 Ratio. Those are the types of ratios we COULD be looking at. These are the type of storms snowblowers love. They just spit that light stuff out. More updates tonite.
yeah the ratios are good. are the jets phasing at this point? If not, do u expect that to occur? looked to me like it was close based on this mornings runs. but thats an amateurs read.
Thanks Jay Looks like the weather didn't help my cause. I will have to head out to Chicago tomorrow and Arkansas next Tuesday. I will be waiting for your next update. Thanks for keeping us informed.
I was supposed to go to the Poconos on Friday... I guess this storm makes that a difficult / dangerous prospect? Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2
Tough to say edge. Thats one thing the models do not agree on at all...but something tells me tonites models, the GFS American at 1030 and the Euro at 1AM will nail down much better because tonites models get all new data. LOL Cbg...Grab me something too...Im working my ass of this week...the updates will be much more common and for those that really like the updates...good news. My wife and boys are going skiing in Killington on Thursday to Sunday so Jaywayne has the house to himself for 4 days!! Which means..plenty of time tracking the storm come Thursday. Jil: Ahhhh...great great question. Do the Jets phase. The southern and northern Jet will KIND OF phase but where? Huge question and the reason you have heard me state on a few occasions concerning this storm is...Will we have a disorganized storm or a wrapped up one. There is no doubt there is plenty of precip with this storm..plenty. Because the merging of the jets will probably not be full phase..and still..still..many areas get at least a half foot of snow. Now if we could get the full phase more south because now..it looks to merge around the great lakes or about...thats when you will here them say on TV something like this "and that storm for Friday looks a lot stronger than we thought!" Its sooo close to happening...even a touch of Arctic Jet...but no model has shown a true merge yet. I really believe tonites models will tell us 80 percent of the story. Being the storm is still 4 days out thats pretty damn good. I would say EDGE that tonite will help you a bit concerning your trip on Friday..but needless to say you will be either driving in the storm the entire time..or leaving here and driving into it. Brook: Sorry about that bud. The Tuesday trip might be a day early for the next storm..might.
