too many 4-6 teams to dig through and figure out the pecking order on. but my worst fear is starting to become real. We'll do well enough to draft in the mid to high teen's and thus lose any real trade down value, but do just poorly enough to miss the playoffs. The team has probably played well enough to avoid a top 7 pick at this time so a truly elite player probably won't be available for the Jets. Dont' get me wrong, I'm hoping we make the playoffs, just afraid we'll miss them and wind up in no man's land on the draft chart.
Yup. This is also what I dread. I also fear that we will win just enough games to give Tanny another year..
Honestly I think no matter what Tanny and Rex will have at least one more year. But they'll need a good draft since they really don't have much cap room.
Current Draft Order and Projected Picks Chiefs- Geno Smith QB Jaguars- Star Lotulelei DT Eagles- Luke Joeckel OT Raiders- Bjoern Werner DE Browns- Damontre Moore OLB Panthers- Jonathan Hankins DT Titans- Dee Milliner CB Chargers- Taylow Lewan OT Jets- Jarvis Jones OLB how does that look
Manti Te'o and Jarvis Jones will be top 5 picks. I don't see Werner going that high, he might be someone the Jets look at around #10. You did an excellent job matching the needs for the 9 teams.
thing is I cant see who takes Te'O in the top 5 and Jones' condition I heard will likely drop him but most likely not out of the top 10
Just thought I'd update this. Currently the Jets are in the #14 slot. I've run a lot of numbers tonight as to possible draft positions for the Jets and the range came out to be 8th if the Jets lose their last two games and everything else falls just right, and as low as 19th if the Jets win out and everything else runs "wrong". However, the most likely range is from 10-17. If the Jets lose their last two games the most likely range is 10-13 If the jets split the most likely range is 13-15 If the Jets win their last two games the most likely range is 15-17 I'm pretty sure I've covered all the various scenarios, though admittedly as convoluted as some possibilities are it's possible I goofed on a strength of schedule. I'll just post the last scenario I ran. It's one where the Jets lost the last two games. The rest of the results are based on most probable outcomes of the final two games on the schedule for the other 31 teams and is what I consider the most likely outcome should the Jets Should lose their last two games. 1 Chiefs 2-14 .503 129-127 2 Jaguars 2-14 .539 138-118 3 Raiders 4-12 .461 118-138 4 Eagles 4-12 .520 133-123 5 Lions 4-12 .563 144-112 6 Browns 5-11 .504 129-127 7 Bills 6-10 .488 125-131 8 Buccaneers 6-10 .506 129.5-127.5 9 Titans 6-10 .512 131-125 10 Jets 6-10 .520 133-123 11 Saints 6-10 .533 136.5-119.5 12 Cardinals 6-10 .555 142-114 13 Chargers 7-9 .449 115-141 14 Dolphins 7-9 .508 130-126 15 Panthers 7-9 .512 131-125 16 Rams 7-8-1 .535 137-119 17 Steelers 8-8 .465 119-137 18 Vikings 8-8 .523 134-122 19 Ravens 9-7 x.512 131-125 20 Bears 9-7 .516 132-124 21 Cowboys 9-7 .523 134-122 22 Bengals 10-6 x.438 112-144 23 Colts 10-6 x.449 115-141 24 Redskins 10-6 x.494 126.5-129.5 25 Giants 10-6 x.525 134.5-121.5 26 49ers 11-4-1 x.504 129-127 27 Seahawks 11-5 x.508 130-126 28 Packers 12-4 x.492 126-130 29 Patriots 12-4 x.500 128-128 30 Broncos 13-3 x.457 117-139 31 Falcons 14-2 x.418 107-149 32 Texans 14-2 x.477 122-134 Note, this is not the draft order per se, though 20 and below is essentially accurate except for the Ravens who would be 21 or later in the draft as based on this set of outcomes they would be in the playoffs.
Probably should say the numbers in the above post are final record, Strength of Schedule and opponents combined win/loss record. I should also mention this is not a prediction of the final standings, but it is based on the most likely outcomes of the remainig games, except for the Jets. I really expect the Jets to split their last two games. But the above is just the last scenario I ran.
What WW85 said, Technically if it was just on record the jets could theoretically get as low as the #5 or 6 pick. But the Jets Strength of schedule means that the highest draft pick the Jets can get is #8, and that's only if everything broke just right (or is that just wrong?). SOS is also what locks the Jets in to being no worse than the #18 pick had they won out, which they can not do now since they lost today. If I recall everything correctly from the simulations, the worst the jets can draft right now is I think 16th, now depending on what happens next week the jets most likely picks are still 9-14. Its still possible of course to get from 8-16 but the two extremes require a very specific set of conditions. If the Jets lose to the Bills next week, the Jets are almost assured the 9th pick, if the Jets lose and the Buccaneers beat Falcons next week then the jets can get #8. But unless the Falcons rest pretty much everyone it's unlikely the Falcons will lose. There are a whole slew of possible outcomes that determine where we fall in the draft if the Jets beat the Bills next week and just to many variables to write about here. But long and short if the Jets win next week they'll draft somewhere between 12-15 most likely, with a small chance of 11 or 16. Lose next week and the Jets are most likely the #9 pick, with a small chance of 8 or 10-11, again depending on the outcome of the other games around the league.
I just reran the numbers since the 49ers and seattle game can not effect where the Jets draft. Best the Jets can do now when todays results are factored in is the #9 pick. I've run every other possible scenario and there's just nothing now that gets the Jets a higher pick than #9. For the Jets to get to #9 the Jets have to lose next week, and the Buccaneers, Cardinals and Panthers all need to win so that the Cardinals finish 6-10 (jets have a weaker SOS than the Cardinals), and the Buc's and Panthers finish 7-9 (jets have a stronger SOS than either team). For each of those teams that lose next week the Jets would drop 1 slot in the draft so if the Jets lose next week they will draft between 9-12 If the Jets Win next week the best they can draft at is 14 and the worst is 15. Unless I'm missing a scenario, or my SOS is off, I don't see a way the Jets can get the #13 pick.
only team I can see winning is Tampa Bay, because ATL will most likely rest their players. Arizona has to play a pissed off SF and Carolina is playing the Saints. Carolina can win but I just don't see it.
Only in that one game but the overall record, assuming a tie, would mean the teams over the course of the season were "Equal". Since teams with the same record won't have opponents in common judging their records by the quality of their overall opponents makes since. For example two 8-8 teams, one played teams with a combined .440 winning percentage while the other 8-8 team played against opponents with a combined .560 winning percentage. Which team had to play better to be 8-8 over the course of the season and which therefore is the better team overall, and not just on one particular day?
I'm inclined to agree with you. Things have to break just right in order to get to the number 9 pick. Of course knowing the Jets they'll beat the Bills and cost us 4-5 draft slots lol.
I'll just go ahead and post this here if anyone wants to use it for a mock draft. I projected the last games next week, though I did give the Jets the benefit of the doubt to get the #9 slot just because it's a little less depressing than drafting #15 and it is a possible draft result, although 10 or 11 is more likely. I projected out the playoffs and made picks for each round up through the superbowl winner in order to set a draft order. All 7 rounds of draft slots are listed, including picks that have actually been traded by teams in for the 2013 draft. The 2nd-7th round also snakes between teams with the same record and a cross reference chart is also provided for a quick glance reference as to what teams have what picks in each round. If anyone wants to use the order for multiple round draft feel free, as far as I know all the trades are accurate, though I had to take a best guess on a couple of conditional picks based on the known information, one one known conditional trade was not included because there was no round information listed anywhere I could find, or even what years draft the conditional pick was for so I didn't include it. The first chart is a cross reference by team and round, and lists the picks and the slot number for each pick the team has that round. A -- means the team has no pick in that round as it was forfeited or traded away. The second chart is a full breakdown for each round individually. The first team listed is the team currently possessing that pick. The team(s) in () are the team(s) that had previously possessed the pick but traded it away. If you use it in a draft, have fun!!!! Final standings, record and strength of schedule 1 Chiefs 2-14 .503 2 Jaguars 2-14 .539 3 Raiders 4-12 .461 4 Eagles 4-12 .520 5 Lions 4-12 .563 6 Bills 6-10 .488 7 Browns 6-10 .504 8 Titans 6-10 .512 9 Jets 6-10 .520 10 Cardinals 6-10 .555 11 Rams 7-8-1 .535 12 Chargers 7-9 .449 13 Buccaneers 7-9 .506 14 Dolphins 7-9 .508 15 Panthers 7-9 .512 16 Steelers 8-8 .465 17 Cowboys 8-8 .523 18 Saints 8-8 .533 19 Vikings 9-7 .523 20 Giants 9-7 .525 21 49ers 10-5-1 .504 22 Bengals 10-6 .438 23 Colts 10-6 .449 24 Redskins 10-6 .494 25 Ravens 10-6 .512 26 Bears 10-6 .516 27 Seahawks 11-5 .508 28 Packers 12-4 .492 29 Patriots 12-4 .500 30 Falcons 13-3 .418 31 Broncos 13-3 .457 32 Texans 13-3 .477 NFL Playoffs NFC Bye Packers, Falcons AFC Bye Broncos, Texans NFC First round Seahawks Redskins- Seahawks advance Bears 49ers- 49ers advance AFC First round Ravens Patriots- Patriots advance Colts Bengals- Bengals advance NFC Second round Seahawks Falcons- Seahawks Advance 49ers Packers- Packers advance AFC Second round Texans Bengals- Texans Advance Patriots Broncos- Broncos Advance NFC Finals Seahawks Packers- Seahawks advance AFC Finals Broncos-Texans- Bronco's advance Superbowl Seahawks Broncos. Seahawks win. Draft Charts Chart 1 Team 1st/2nd/3rd/4th/5th/6th/7th 1 Chiefs 1/2/1/2/1/2/1 2 Jaguars 2/1/2/1/2/1/2 3 Raiders 3/--/4/3/--/4/3,13 4 Eagles 4/3/5/4/3/5/23,31 5 Lions 5/4/3/--/4/3/5 6 Bills 6/10/9/8/7/6/-- 7 Browns 7/--/10/9/8/7/4,6 8 Titans 8/7/6/10/9/--/7 9 Jets 9/8/7/6/10/9/8 10 Cardinals 10/9/8/7/6/10/9 11 Rams 11,24/11/11/11/11/11/11 12 Chargers 12/15/14/13/12/15/14 13 Buccaneers 13/12/15/14,28/13/12/15,32 14 Dolphins 14/13,23/12,25/15/14/24/12,17 15 Panthers 15/14/--/12/15/14/-- 16 Steelers 16/18/17/16/18/17/16 17 Cowboys 17/16/18/17/16/18/-- 18 Saints 18/--/16/18/17/16/ -- 19 Vikings 19/20/19/5,20/19/8,20/19 20 Giants 20/19/20/19/20/19/20 21 49ers 25/21/13,21/21/21,25/13,21/21,22 22 Bengals 26/5,22/26/25/24/23,28/ -- 23 Colts 21/ --/22/26/--/ --/ -- 24 Redskins --/ 24 / 23 / 22 / 26,27 / 25 / 24 25 Ravens 23 / 25 / 24 / 23 / 22 / 26 / 25 26 Bears 24 / 26 / -- / 24 / 23 / 22 / -- 27 Packers 29 / 27 / 28 / 27 / 28 / 27 / 28 28 Patriots 27 / 28 / 27 / -- / -- / -- / 26,27 29 Falcons 28 / 29 / 30 / 29 / 30 / 29 / 30 30 Texans 30 / 30 / 29 / 30 / 29 / 30 / 29 31 Broncos 31 / 31 / 31 / 31 / 31 / 31 / -- 32 Seahawks 32 / 32 / 32 / 32 / 5,32 / 32 / 10,18 Snaking Draft order Round 1 1 Chiefs 2 Jaguars 3 Raiders 4 Eagles 5 Lions 6 Bills 7 Browns 8 Titans 9 Jets 10 Cardinals 11 Rams 12 Chargers 13 Buccaneers 14 Dolphins 15 Panthers 16 Steelers 17 Cowboys 18 Saints 19 Vikings 20 Giants 21 Colts 22 Rams (from Redskins) 23 Ravens 24 Bears 25 49ers 26 Bengals 27 Patriots 28 Falcons 29 Packers 30 Texans 31 Broncos 32 Seahawks Round 2 1 Jaguars 2 Chiefs 3 Eagles 4 Lions 5 Bengals (from Raiders) 6 Forfeited (Browns) 7 Titans 8 Jets 9 Cardinals 10 Bills 11 Rams 12 Buccaneers 13 Dolphins 14 Panthers 15 Chargers 16 Cowboys 17 Forfeited (Saints) 18 Steelers 19 Giants 20 Vikings 21 49ers 22 Bengals 23 Dolphins (from Colts) 24 Redskins 25 Ravens 26 Bears 27 Packers 28 Patriots 29 Falcons 30 Texans 31 Broncos 32 Seahawks Round 3 1 Chiefs 2 Jaguars 3 Lions 4 Raiders 5 Eagles 6 Titans 7 Jets 8 Cardinals 9 Bills 10 Browns 11 Rams 12 Dolphins 13 49ers (from Panthers) 14 Chargers 15 Buccaneers 16 Saints 17 Steelers 18 Cowboys 19 Vikings 20 Giants 21 49ers 22 Colts 23 Redskins 24 Ravens 25 Dolphins (from Bears) 26 Bengals 27 Patriots 28 Packers 29 Texans 30 Falcons 31 Broncos 32 Seahawks Round 4 1 Jaguars 2 Chiefs 3 Raiders 4 Eagles 5 Vikings (From Lions) 6 Jets 7 Cardinals 8 Bills 9 Browns 10 Titans 11 Rams 12 Panthers 13 Chargers 14 Buccaneers 15 Dolphins 16 Steelers 17 Cowboys 18 Saints 19 Giants 20 Vikings 21 49ers 22 Redskins 23 Ravens 24 Bears 25 Bengals 26 Colts 27 Packers 28 Buccaneers (from Patriots) 29 Falcons 30 Texans 31 Broncos 32 Seahawks Round 5 1 Chiefs 2 Jaguars 3 Eagles 4 Lions 5 Seahawks (from Raiders) 6 Cardinals 7 Bills 8 Browns 9 Titans 10 Jets 11 Rams 12 Chargers 13 Buccaneers 14 Dolphins 15 Panthers 16 Cowboys 17 Saints 18 Steelers 19 Vikings 20 Giants 21 49ers 22 Ravens 23 Bears 24 Bengals 25 49ers (from Colts) 26 Redskins 27 Redskins (from Patriots) 28 Packers 29 Texans 30 Falcons 31 Broncos 32 Seahawks Round 6 1 Jaguars 2 Chiefs 3 Lions 4 Raiders 5 Eagles 6 Bills 7 Browns 8 Vikings (from Titans) 9 Jets 10 Cardinals 11 Rams 12 Buccaneers 13 49ers (from Dolphins) 14 Panthers 15 Chargers 16 Saints 17 Steelers 18 Cowboys 19 Giants 20 Vikings 21 49ers 22 Bears 23 Bengals 24 Dolphins (from Colts) 25 Redskins 26 Ravens 27 Packers 28 Bengals (from Patriots) 29 Falcons 30 Texans 31 Broncos 32 Seahawks Round 7 1 Chiefs 2 jaguars 3 Raiders 4 Browns (from Eagles) 5 Lions 6 Browns 7 Titans 8 Jets 9 Cardinals 10 Seahawks (from Bills) 11 Rams 12 Dolphins 13 Raiders (From Panthers) 14 Chargers 15 Buccaneers 16 Steelers 17 Dolphins (from Cowboys) 18 Seahawks (from Saints) 19 vikings 20 Giants 21 49ers 22 49ers (From Bengals) 23 Eagles (from Colts) 24 Redskins 25 Ravens 26 Patriots (from Buccaneers from Bears) 27 Patriots 28 Packers 29 Texans 30 Falcons 31 Eagles (from Broncos) 32 Buccaneers (from Seahawks)
