I'm not claiming that none of these guys will ever be a viable starter. I'm saying that's not what you draft a QB in the 1st round for. If you're looking for a viable starter in the 1st round and you get your wish you are so screwed long-term because viable starters do not win Super Bowls for the teams that drafted them. It just doesn't happen these days. What you're looking for is a superstar. I have no doubt that Tyler Wilson could be a viable starter in the NFL. Same for Mike Glennon. Hell, most of the names this year have some chance of becoming a viable starter in the NFL. None of them say "if you draft this guy you are going to win Super Bowls, it's just a matter of when." That's what you should be drafting in the 1st round: the guys there is little or no question about and the guys who just fit perfectly into what you want to do. Some times you get lucky and you find a franchise QB in places other teams didn't bother looking really hard. The 6th round Brady. The injured Brees. The Rodgers you could afford to develop for 3 years behind one of the great QB's of all time. None of those guys was taken to be thrust into the limelight right away the way a mid-round 1st rounder often is. All of them sat for significant periods of time at the start. They all had bigger stories going on around them when they finally hit the field. The only franchise QB right now that was taken in the middle of the 1st round, and he was just outside the top 10, was Ben Roethlisberger. He was taken by one of the great franchises of all time and he was protected the way a penguin protects its egg, with constant attention that never wavered. None of the guys in this 1st round looks like a top 3 QB prospect. None of them has the "it's going to happen" feel to them. None of them really has the feel of being inevitably good if they are taken elsewhere in the 1st round and a lot is invested in developing them. The odds say a couple of guys in this draft are going to be solid starters but I'll be damned if I can figure out who they are and solid starter isn't what I want anyway. I want a great QB and none of the guys in this draft has that shine to them. That just is what it is. This isn't the 2012 draft. It's 2013. Anybody taking a QB in this draft is starting at the Ryan Tannehill level and 80% of those guys never become a franchise QB even after you've spent the 1st round pick on them and then thrown the organization behind developing them. Unless you're the Steelers or the Packers that is.
I don't know what it is, but I like Sean Renfree (Duke) as a late round option. He just seems like his game could transition well to the NFL to me
I think your looking for that superstar in the top ten. In the later half of the first not so much. Sadly even to get a decent starter you need to invest high picks or get very lucky later on. Right now we need a QB that places protecting the ball as job number 1. We very well may have had a playoff team if our QB had learned to throw the ball away or take a sack instead of putting it up carelessly. I feel that we may both take a guy in the second and bring in a vet this year. If the current FO/HC combo is back I see them attempting to fix the position both short and long term in one season. One thing that is for sure we all saw what a disaster not having a plan b for the quarterback is.
If a guy is decent sized and with a decent arm and is fairly accurate he might well be a good NFL QB, even a great one. Tom Brady wasn't that far off what you look for in an NFL QB. He got discounted a lot because he couldn't completely convince Lloyd Carr that he had the goods. He was just the main guy in the mix at Michigan after Griese left and with Henson a redshirt freshman. He got discounted because he was noticeably slow of foot. I think the Jets could find a franchise QB in the 6th round if they got lucky. But that's what it would take. That and having a Charlie Weis level offensive coordinator to work with him and develop him. You could also have the greatest OC on earth working with a succession of 6th rounders and never find your guy. That's why the top 10 option is the best option and it's why teams take shots on QB's from the mid 1st to the early 2nd all the time. Much better chance of finding a great QB there but you pay in blood for each chance and if you miss the gods are not kind to you.
I agree the cost seems high, but it's the going cost. I don't pay 5 bucks for a decent latte because I want to, but when it's that or drink shit coffee I pony up for the good stuff. That's the situation we find ourselves in yet again. Maybe by some miracle McElroy is the guy, most likely not. No matter how good his two game tryout looks we would be making the wrong move to not look into a QB high in this draft.
First off, Glennon, Jones, and Wilson are not 6th round picks, that's insane. They're most likely mid 1st round picks to second round picks (At least for Wilson and Glennon). I could see Jones falling but no farther than the late 3rd. I like the 2014 QBs MUCH better than this class BUT I would completely be for signing a Vet (Alex Smith), hiring a completely new offensively driven coaching staff (New GM as well), and building up a QB like Glennon or Wilson to eventually start in 2014 or 2015.
Hes a project , but I agree, his stock could go WAY up come draft time. Sean's got great size and can make all the throws in the NFL.
I honestly believe that the 6th round is the first place that any of those guys would be a good pick. We could roll the dice on them in the 1st or early 2nd but I don't like the odds of any of them becoming great at this point and I certainly can't pick among them as to which is most likely to be great. The thing about not taking QB's after the 36 or so until you get to the 6th round is that the mid-round guys just don't have the same buy-in as the guys up at the top of the draft. Nobody in the organization is sweating their success. Nobody is so heavily invested in them that if they fail the price will be too high to pay. And of course there's the fact that 32 people who in theory select QB's as well as anybody on the planet have passed on them multiple times at that point. If there's a great QB out there in the 2nd round there is no way in hell he makes it to the 3rd. Really if he's great he doesn't get past the bad franchises at the top of the 2nd, they're just too desperate for a QB to pass up that value.
He has all the tools, and won't cost a first round pick. Coming into the year, there were talks that he could go in the top ten overall, but he didn't live up to that hype. But as someone that can make all the throws AND be able to run around is pretty good IMO. He makes dumb mistakes, but I think we have a better shot at correcting dumb mistakes than getting players to have their talent level be elevated. There is no QB in this draft, that I think is going to be a flat out stud. So if we are going to go for a QB, might as well go for one that has excellent potential, and can fit in with our run and ground philosophy. I also like Bray a lot, but he tends to take risks as well, but I would not mind him as well. The whole caveat being that we ARE taking a QB this year. With the level of talent being lower than usual, I'm fine with passing on this year.
I question his mid to long range accuracy... I love his release, footwork and ability to deliver a strike within 20 yards. Once its past that, from what Ive seen, he has a hard time delivering the ball in stride to the receiver on deep passes.
Thats insane, especially for Glennon and Wilson. Both would be great value at our 2nd round pick. You think that someone with the potential to be a franchise QB would have less value that Bilal Powell, Joe McKnight, Josh Bush... even Demario Davis? If we could get one of those two QBs instead of a pick like Stephen Hill I would do it in a heartbeat.
Kellen Clemens was great value at our pick. Would have been a 1st if he didn't break his leg was the common wisdom. Really if a guy gets down below the 36 the odds are extremely strong he's not going to be a quality starter. Like ridiculously strong. It's not intuitive to think that QB's are any different than any other position in terms of distribution of value along the draft curve but really they are. If you look at games started by QB's picked in the 7 round draft you get this enormous break towards the 1st round. Like 55%+ of the games started are 1st rounders. The next round is the 2nd round of course, but not just any 2nd rounders. The guys who start a lot of games in the NFL come in the first 4 picks of the 2nd round. The guys who will start some games but not be regulars for a long time start to trickle in after that. You know what round comes next in the ranking? The 6th round. And while Brady is a big part of that he has started about a third of all the games that 6th rounders have started since 1994. You don't think about the other guys a lot but the same year Peyton Manning was taken another QB with 152 starts went in the 6th: Matt Hasselbeck. The year Brady was taken Marc Bulger went in the 6th. It's the sniping round after the 2nd, the one where you have a chance to pickup a player at a relatively low cost after you've tried to fill other holes earlier in the draft. QB's taken from 1994 to 2012 in the 2nd round have started 747 NFL games to date. QB's taken in the 6th round have started 565. No other round after the 1st has seen more than 381 starts. There are more starts out of 6th and 7th round QB's combined in the 7 round draft era than out of 3rd, 4th and 5th rounders combined. It's a very real phenomena. Here's the breakdown of starts by QB's drafted from 1994 to 2012 by rounds: 1st - 3003 (55.2%) 2nd - 747 (13.7%) 3rd - 381 (7.0%) 4th - 375 (6.9%) 5th - 75 (1.4%) 6th - 565 (10.4%) 7th - 293 (5.4%) I don't have UDFA's added in because I couldn't think of a way to get all the names easily. I got the drafts and starts off of nfl.com. Just adding Tony Romo and Kurt Warner to the lists would make the 6th/7th/UDFA dwarf the 3rd/4th/5th mid-round category.
I'm a fan of taking Bray in the second or third round. He's not ready to play in 2013 and he's got a few hinks in his game but he does have 4 things I value in a QB, Strong arm, Good Height, Great anticipation and see's receivers before they come out of their break, and often hits his recievers in stride. His drawbacks, he's somewhat immature, he's not very mobile, though with some coaching he could learn to step in to the pocket better to buy time and he's inconsistant with his mechanics, again a coachable issue. He's not worth a first round, or a top 10 second round pick. But a middle 2nd or upper third round definitely worth a flyer on. this is assuming of course he comes out for this years draft and doesn't stay in college to try to become a first round pick, which I think he's very capable of becoming in 2014.
I agree that Wilson's weakness is the deep ball, but his arm is plenty strong...as seen in these throws (had to put spaces because my post count isnt high enough yet). Not on Mallett's level but it's above average. ht tp:// youtu.be/Q6PI0L7-xnk ht tp:// youtu.be/OUhp2laxjBM?t=28s He didn't play as well as he did in 2011 but he had no coaching at all and only had one receiver in cobi hamilton since his TE was out most of the year. He had one of the worst OLs in college football but still wasn't sacked that many times because he usually got the ball off. His best throw IMO is the out route. I think with an actual coach he can be better than he showed this year...scouts have already been impressed with his football IQ
The two guys that I like are Glennon and Nassib. I have watched Nassib a ton this year and the kid just has the "it" factor. My question is this, after watching what Big Ben has been able to do for years, with his size, foot woork, arm strength etc...who is this drafts Big Ben? Is that Glennon? Thats the type of QB this team needs....
Unless Geno Smith magically slides to the Jets pick, I just don't think this is the year for the Jets to address the QB woes. Even if Smith were to fall..he needs to sit on the bench and learn an NFL offense before he's ready for extended action. Priority #1 for this team in the draft is to get more explosive.
Agreed. I didn't think we'd draft a guy like Glennon early before butmwithmall then Sanchez talk this week it seems like more of a potential for sure.
This info is meaningless with a breakdown of total or positional players to put it up against. Do QBs bust more? The same rate? Just throwing around stats with no base to compare it to does not really advance the discussion.
Unfortuantely there isn't a Big Ben every year, and I think that goes more to Bradwaysucks point. These days you're probably going to have at least 5 QB's taken in the first 2 rounds, whether they deserve to be or not. The relative strength of a class will push guys up but as we saw last year, rarely down. Look at the previous Super Bowl QB's of the last 10 years. It's guys taken in the first round, Brees who was the 1st pick of the 2nd round, Tom Brady, and veterans on at least their second team. The developmental guys taken later have panned out in terms of being legit NFL starting QB's. But that's not what will actually get you to the Super Bowl, especially with the way the league is today. I think Andy Dalton is a good player. Would be an immediate upgrade over Sanchez and is probably maybe not a top 12 QB but in that next tier. But is he going to beat the Brady's & Roethlisbergers & Mannings and Rodgers? I tend to doubt it. So if that's what a guy like Nassib develops into then great. And on a team like the Jets if you give him a well above average defense you might have a shot. But you can make the argument it makes more sense to stockpile your team with talent and either wait for the chance to take a guy with the potential to be a top tier QB or go with a vet.
It's not meaningless at all. Whether QB's bust more often or not is irrelevant when you look at the raw numbers that say 6th and 7th round picks start more games than 3rd/4th/5th round picks.
