The yards per completion stat is flawed, and a terrible, terrible way to make a conclusion about QBs!! Especially Tim Tebow, because he has so FEW completions: you are almost using stats to show how poorly he throws the ball by using this. Here is an example - Vs. Kansas City last new years', Tebow was 6 of 22 for 60 yards, 0 TDS and 1 INT... I think everyone in the world would agree thats a terrible game. Yet if we looked only at his yards per completion 10.0 y.p.c., that's a solid game.. (the league leader was Matt Schaub at 13.9..) A better way to judge a QB is by "yards per attempt" because it takes into account the incompletions, as well as the completions. Tim Tebow was 29th in the NFL in yards per attempt. (and would've probably been much worse if they let him throw more than they did!) adjusted yards per attempt in the KC game I highlighted above puts Tebow at 0.68 a/y.p.a... which is much more accurate for the type of game he played (SHITTY).
The thread is asking if Tebow gives the Jets a better shot. The answer is no, but feel free to continue loving him.
thank you for the correction and fumbles were absolutely a problem no doubt, but again inside his first 16 games boneheaded plays will happen, as a comparison Sanchez had 26 turnovers in 16 games last year, he has more experience so should protect the ball better. this year in 8 games Sanchez has 11 turnovers, which is more important 2 completed passes a game or an extra turnover every 2 games?
air yards % is a measure of the % of a qb's passing yards that are attained through the air vs YAC. Say 2 QB's have a 50 yards passing on 5 passes. One QB throws 5 screen passes that the WR takes for 10 yards, the other hits 5 8 yard passes where the receiver gets little YAC, Air yards will tell you on average who attempted the highest difficulty passes, the assumption being the longer the pass the more difficult to complete here is a link to the stat he is talking about if you are interested http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/01/air-yards-2011.html
Either way it still ignores incompletions, it just takes yards per completion one step further... Thus, my point holds true that its a terrible way to judge a QB.
I really honestly doubt it, I don't think it is going to matter much who you have back there. It is really a question of the direction the FO wants to take. If they are going to stick with Sanchez another year he shold finish it out, if not give Tebow or McElroy a shot and see if they show that they have something you can build off of
absolutely agree it is not a good way to judge a qb, it is a decent way to put stats in context, and they do provide a air yards per attempt that can be used as well
It's just one stat, and not enough to judge a quarterback by. But it's an indicator of which kind of passes a quarterback is more successful at completing. The high (incredibly high, shockingly high) air yards per completion stat just shows he attempted long throws and made them -- the kind of passer that is good to pair with a running game. The idea is that you get your plays of 8 yards and under with the running game, it clogs the box, and you dump it over the top for long yardage. I do agree that if you could only choose one stat, it would YPA. Tebow's YPA was indeed pulled down but the large rate of incompletions. Surprised it was higher than anyone's at 29.
If you only get one stat, that's right. But if you're looking at a whole picture, YPA doesn't tell you "is this low because he failed to complete a lot of passes, or because he throws short passes." YPC tells you the type of passes he had success completing -- short, long, etc. The only point is that Tebow is good at long throws -- it's just a fact. Shouldn't be hard to concede. Just about everybody (including Rex) with good things to say mentions the long ball ability -- the tendency to look for it, the willingness to pull the trigger on long throws, and the accuracy to hit them. His mechanics are not good by NFL standards, but they are well suited to long routes down the field, where quick release is not much of an issue.
the long pass is also a flaw in his game, he looks for it too much sometimes, often he would be better off hitting a checdown and hoping they make something out of it rather that all or nothing.
Agreed, the point is that if the offense calls for long passes (a run-first, chunk yardage passing attack), he has above average ability at that. And as for his prospects generally, part of my thinking is that the checkdown should be something he can learn to take. It shouldn't be a deal-breaker.
All he had to do in long passes is to hurl it down the field and get it to land within the zip code of a receiver, and they will make the neccessary adjustments. Just drop back, give the receiver a couple seconds to get downfield, and chuck it. He did seem to be able to get the ball there even though most of them were misses. Helps the average when you only throw maybe 12 times in a game. Like that first Kansas City game where he only completed 2, one was a really long pass, but he missed like 4 of them times that day on a similar call. That's 20% of his long attempts, and 12% of his passes that day. But he also led the league in percentage of pass plays that went for negative yards too. So he was pretty much limited to either very long or very short. That still took away medium range of about 5-12 yards... and that is where most of the game is played. Most of the passes in that range rely on reading defenses, knowing where the receiver was supposed to be, and timing timing timing to catch receivers in stride. That part, he wasn't very good at at all and I think that reflected in the playcalling. The coaches knew it. Most fans actually watching knew it, and so did the defense when they stacked the box with 9 mena and played man coverage deep. Worked much of the time, sometimes it didn't. Depended on when he managed to get the ball in the right place. Some of his defenders said he was more of a sight thrower than an anticipatory thrower. Meaning, he throws where he sees the target, and not where he is expecting the receiver to be when the ball gets there, and that is a big reason passes were almost always late and behind receivers in that area of the field. As the season went on, throws to that area were fewer and further in between. Since that is the area most passing QBs make their living, and most dink and dunkers get to 300 yards of passing in a game, that SEVERELY limits and offense.
I don't know overall about how he was reading the D etc, the problem is in the first 3 quarters on average he was only asked to pass the ball 3-5 times per quarter, in the 4th quarter he was asked to pass the ball 10 times a quarter(on average). His numbers went up in the 4th quarter, so some of it might have been just getting in a rhythm. Denver also scored much better in the 4th quarter when he was asked to throw more, so I don't know if the coaches so much knew he couldn't throw so they didn't ask him to. I think it was more that the game plan was to ground and pound, not throw much and keep it close, then open it up at the end. There were so many changes with that team going on at the same time last year that it is impossible to actually grasp what really was happening, that is part of the reason I want to see him get another shot, if he sucks so be it, but due to the circumstances he was dealing with I am not convinced that his stats are representative of his capabilities
I think the answer is the Sparano needs to be more creative with his offense, they can't put Tebow out there running the same plays Sanchez is running it won't work.
That's false. No, very long is good for him. He led the NFL in air yards per completion. He completed a low percentage of them, as all quarterbacks do. Yes, this was his biggest shortcoming, and it will be what makes or breaks him. I saw great improvement on these throws in the preseason this year. Which is one of the reasons I am very encouraged that he has improved. No. Most quarterbacks don't get to 300 yards a game every game anyway, but more importantly, a "dink and dunk" will eventually catch up with you and become easy to stop. The key difference maker for quarterbacks is there ability to challenge down the field and complete passes down the field.
he was 1-4 with a TD and a drop on passes greater than 20 yards in the air Vs KC the first time they played
Yeah, I named about a dozen things that happened that helped turn the season around, but almost all were ignored except for the Tebow switch, which is why he seemingly gets almost all of the credit for that. NFL decision makers are smarter than that. As for the first through third quarters, many seem to think it was a case of the coaches handcuffing him and then letting Tebow be Tebow to come and save the day in the 4th. False, IMO. While it is true the coaches limited the passing, I truly think a lot of it had to do with their lack of confidence in his throwing. Plus, there were more passes called, he just ran at the first sign of trouble a lot of the time turning it into a sack or a run play, which didn't register as a pass attempt. Those are part of why you see less pass attempts. 4th quarters, teams fell into the trap many do and get burned. They back off into a softer prevent... and even as critical as I am of Tebow, he can absolutely KILL YOU if you take that approach. rushing 3 or 4 won't work, he'd run over a lot of defenders, and he can gash them with a run, or he actually has time to think out there and find open guys. Only ONE team didn't make that mistake at the end, and in that game that final drive was ended quick. Kansas City won that game 7 to 3. If you want to blame the coaches for fewer attempts, at least part of that is on Tebow as well for not improving his game in that department to NFL standards. If you can't even complete 50%, you're not gonna last long in this league.... Period.
I understand where you are coming from, but the current passing attack isn't very good. At the moment the offense cant pass or run the ball very well. Even thou both options aren't very good if given the choice between an offense who cant run the ball/pass it and an offense who cant pass it, but can run it pretty well i'd take the second one.
with one drop sweetheart, that would put 50% on target, cant catch them for the WR...as you are I'm sure aware drops were an issue all year with the Denver WR
