Gonna take bad injuries to get there I think. The defense is not giving up more than about 250 points, probably a good bit less than that. That means the offense and special teams are going to have to give up about 70 points to get the Jets in the danger zone of a lost season, assuming you think they're going to have real problems scoring themselves. The 2005 and 2007 wipeouts each gave up 355 pts and averaged a differential of -101. I just don't see anyway the Jets give up anything close to that in terms of points allowed and I expect the offense to be able to score 250 pts in the down scenario. So figure worst case without serious injuries the Jets only score 250 pts on offense plus another 28 on defense and special teams. That's 278 points. The defense allows 220 points and the Jets give up 70 on offense and special teams. That's a -12 differential and somewhere between 7 and 9 wins most likely. Now, if Sanchez gets hurt early or Mangold or D'Brick, then the offense falls off a cliff and maybe scores only 220 points while the defense is allowing 250 and another 70 come from elsewhere and then you are in 5-11 land.
i do expect the injury bug but also factoring in some of the teams on our schedule are good football teams that match up well with the jets - 49ers, bills, steelers, etc. the difference between 5-11/6-10 and 8-8/9-7 is minimal as u know and i do not think the jets are good enough to overcome that edge. on defense maybe but i do not like the LB set up and unless the front 3/4/5 turn into the second coming of the sack exchange or at least the current giants/eagles fronts (which IMO may come close once these guys get some more experience) we are highly susceptible to the short passing game utilizing backs and TE's. our improvement at safety may help and will be ultimately determined by health, not ability. man i do hope i am not seeing this right and we all get to enjoy a surprise year in a positive way for this team. appreciate ur detailed posts/responses in many threads.
I agree on paper the stats argument means, assuming no major injuries, between 7 and 9 wins this season. But i picked 7 for two reasons. One is what you allude to in the last paragraph. I think the Jets are particularly at risk of a big drop off if any of their core players are hurt because their bench is so weak. In other words they would suffer more of a drop off than a team with a stronger bench. If any of Mangold, Revis, Cro, Harris, Holmes and even Ferguson go down, they simply do not have serviceable replacements for any of those guys. The second reason is I think the O will not get its act together because of Tebow. That's why I picked 7 wins.
It's gotta be guys in the middle of the field that get hurt though. /digression People just don't understand how little Revis and Cro individually mean in the overall equation. One of them is a great player and one of them is very good but the Jets also have at least one guy who could probably step and play passably on the outside in Wilson. Say the sky falls and Revis goes out with a torn hammy. Ok, so Rex then puts Wilson on the outside and begins scheming to keep the Jets defense solid. Wilson turns out to be ok out there and the Jets don't take a big hit in the overall performance. Why? Because Rex is a great defensive coach and between him and Pettine they'd get it figured out. Why? because cornerbacks just aren't key players in any defense that is not tooled to direct traffic at them in a big way. Darrelle Revis is great because Rex Ryan has tooled his defense to make Darrelle Revis have way more opportunities to make plays than you'd expect a topflight CB to have. He's also a great player but if you put him on a vanilla defense he'd be great in the way other shutdown corners are great: people just wouldn't throw his way much. History tells us that a great shutdown corner is about as likely to play for a cellar dweller as a champion. Most of the great shutdown corners have played on very average teams, like Champ Bailey for 80% of career. Some have played for below average to bad teams, like Nnamdi Asomugha. The few that have played for great teams had a lot of help elsewhere on the defense (Law, the Raiders duo) or pick and chose very carefully where they played (Deion.) Ty Law picked off 10 passes for the Jets in 2005 and he was a terror for QB's. Where did that get us? /digression mode off If Sanchez, Mangold, D'Brick, Moore, Greene, Harris or Landry gets hurt there will be an immediate ripple effect that damages the Jets chances to win this year. If Revis OR Cromartie gets hurt the Jets will adjust. If both of them get hurt, well then we're screwed unless the Jets have two passable CB's to keep the edges under control.
1. Sun, Sep 9 vs Buffalo Bills --- W 2. Sun, Sep 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers --- L 3. Sun, Sep 23 @ Miami Dolphins --- W 4. Sun, Sep 30 vs San Francisco 49ers --- L 5. Mon, Oct 8 vs Houston Texans --- L 6. Sun, Oct 14 vs Indianapolis Colts --- W 7. Sun, Oct 21 @ New England Patriots --- L 8. Sun, Oct 28 vs Miami Dolphins --- W 9. Bye Week 10. Sun, Nov 11 @ Seattle Seahawks --- W 11. Sun, Nov 18 @ St. Louis Rams --- W 12. Thu, Nov 22 vs New England Patriots --- L 13. Sun, Dec 2 vs Arizona Cards --- W 14. Sun, Dec 9 @ Jacksonville Jags --- W 15. Mon, Dec 17 @ Tennessee Titans --- W 16. Sun, Dec 23 vs San Diego Chargers --- L 17. Sun, Dec 30 @ Buffalo Bills --- W 10-6
Rex may have been a coaching influence on Revis, but his schemes have put Revis in the line of fire, and QBs are still afraid to throw at him. So much that some QBs nearly announce ahead of time that they are not scared of him. It's hard to delineate where Revis became a great corner and where Ryan took over with the Jets, but it's easy to see that it doesn't take defensive scheming to make Revis great. Just watch the fucking guy play. He doesn't have help. The island is real. He IS that good. And he rarely has any help. And most times, in the past season and a half, there's been no QB pressure to help him. Not sure if it's just me, but I am drooling at the thought of DR having a 4-man pressure defensive line to help him do what he does. This would be the first time he has that luxury. Revisionist horsecrap. Ty Law had twice as many PI's as he had interceptions. There's a reason they call the 5 yard bump rule the 'Ty Law Rule'.
I stuck with my original 10-6, but I have predicted 9-7 on some other places. I think they'll go 3-3 in the division, and have a decent chance to go 7-3 outside the division. Two games that make or break it are @Seahawks and Chargers. I think those two game will decide if they make the playoffs or not Bills L @Steelers L @Dolphins W 49ers W Texans L Colts W @Pats L Dolphins W @Seahawk W/L @Rams W Pats L @Cards W Jags W @Titans W Chargers W/L @Bills W
I'm not sure why a prediction that has the Jets embracing the spread offense matters, whether positive or negative. It's a gadget. Plus, the Jets will beat New England at least once, so I guess that means we're in the playoffs in such a weak conference. Gonna enjoy watching Brady get abused by our defensive front.
1. Sun, Sep 9 vs Buffalo Bills ---W 2. Sun, Sep 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers ---W 3. Sun, Sep 23 @ Miami Dolphins ---W 4. Sun, Sep 30 vs San Francisco 49ers ---W 5. Mon, Oct 8 vs Houston Texans ---W 6. Sun, Oct 14 vs Indianapolis Colts ---W 7. Sun, Oct 21 @ New England Patriots ---W 8. Sun, Oct 28 vs Miami Dolphins ---W 9. Bye Week 10. Sun, Nov 11 @ Seattle Seahawks ---W 11. Sun, Nov 18 @ St. Louis Rams ---W 12. Thu, Nov 22 vs New England Patriots ---W 13. Sun, Dec 2 vs Arizona Cards ---W 14. Sun, Dec 9 @ Jacksonville Jags ---W 15. Mon, Dec 17 @ Tennessee Titans ---W 16. Sun, Dec 23 vs San Diego Chargers ---W 17. Sun, Dec 30 @ Buffalo Bills ---W Win 3 playoff games, including Superbowl - 19 and 0.
Actually, my prediction doesn't matter. At least not anymore than any of the other predictions on here. Opinions are like assholes... yada yada I think they could run it effectively for long stretches, especially if they can get on the board early. The biggest problem the Jets had last year was that the defense would finally give out late in games because they were gassed. An offense that keeps the clock rolling 4 minutes or more per possesion even on short non-scoring possessions, would help.
8-8 1. Sun, Sep 9 vs Buffalo Bills ---L 2. Sun, Sep 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers ---L 3. Sun, Sep 23 @ Miami Dolphins ---W 4. Sun, Sep 30 vs San Francisco 49ers ---L 5. Mon, Oct 8 vs Houston Texans ---L 6. Sun, Oct 14 vs Indianapolis Colts ---W 7. Sun, Oct 21 @ New England Patriots ---L 8. Sun, Oct 28 vs Miami Dolphins ---W 9. Bye Week 10. Sun, Nov 11 @ Seattle Seahawks ---L 11. Sun, Nov 18 @ St. Louis Rams ---W 12. Thu, Nov 22 vs New England Patriots ---L 13. Sun, Dec 2 vs Arizona Cards ---W 14. Sun, Dec 9 @ Jacksonville Jags ---W 15. Mon, Dec 17 @ Tennessee Titans ---L 16. Sun, Dec 23 vs San Diego Chargers ---W 17. Sun, Dec 30 @ Buffalo Bills ---W
I think we are evenly matched against the Bills and will split this year. Given how awful our offense has looked I think it will be late in the season when we hopefully find some sense of an offense. Inevitably during a season we will win games we didn't think we could and lose ones that were in the bag. Saying we can't go 4-7 because it would be undesirable to you isn't much of a reason. We shouldn't have brought in tbow for that reason. I have no doubt Sanchez is going to stumble and the fans and the media will be chant Tbow but I don't think Rex will pull him.
I'll bet you my predictions end up being more accurate than the 10+ wins generally perceived in this thread!:lol:
It's a fact that Darrelle Revis has missed only 14 quarters of play in his Jet's career and the Jets have won all 4 games, including the 2 quarters he missed after the injury. In 2010 the Jets were 8-5 in games Revis played and 3-0 in the ones he missed. They swept the AFC East in the 10 quarter run that began with him pulling his hammy as Randy Moss beat him deep for a TD. That's just what it is. Great player but not one the Jets fortunes hinge on.
WOW...really? If the Jets win 14 or even 12 Ill fuck my mother I think its another down year sadly. Offense just doesnt have the pieces. Shonn hasnt been a bust but so far hasnt been what we were hoping for...of course running behind a dogshit line doesnt help. If it wasnt for the D we are a 5 win team. We'll win a few strickly because of the D just like the last few years. Other than Holmes Sanchez doesnt have any weapons. Maybe Keller will excel under Sparano but Hill isnt ready yet and who knows what Chaz brings to the table. I thinking if a team can hang 21+ on us during the year its going to be tough to win. Last year Fins fans were predicting 12 wins too. Its near impossible to not be a homer when doing this. Its what makes you a fan...of course you think your team can beat anyone...my buddy in CA thinks the Raiders can win 12 and Palmer is going to be in the Pro Bowl. Of course he does have a medical marijuana card so that might be a factor in the prediction.
wouldn't go that far, but i would let tebow fuck my mother if we win 12 or 14 games not sanchez though, because he's a dick.
