http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8333349/three-dark-horse-super-bowl-candidates-2012-nfl Rex Ryan used to be the one to make Super Bowl predictions for his club. Now that he has imposed a filter on himself for that type of prognosticating, it is up to others to make those predictions instead. The somewhat ironic part is that the Jets' Super Bowl case this year is stronger than it might seem at first glance. It starts with Ryan's ability to coach defense. Last season was an admittedly less-than-stellar showing on that side of that ball, as New York allowed 24 or more points in eight games and 30 or more points in five games. Having noted that, the Jets' D was still quite strong in a large number of categories. The Jets ranked tied for second in vertical yards per attempt allowed (9.3), were second in stretch vertical YPA (8.4), tied for fifth in defensive GBP (a stat from my draft guide that gauges defensive prowess against the run), and ranked tied for seventh in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric (3.2 percent) that measures a defense's ability to force the opposing quarterback to make mental errors that lead to turnover chances. (Note: Vertical passes are aerials thrown 11 or more yards, while stretch vertical passes are thrown 20 or more yards.) Getting those kinds of numbers out of a subpar year goes to show just how truly adept Ryan is at defensive play-calling, so that part of the Ryan Super Bowl formula should hold up. The Jets also could see improvements in their offense since their passing woes last year had as much to do with the poor play of Plaxico Burress than it did with any leadership deficiencies of Mark Sanchez. Of course, they aren't showing much yet, but the additions of Chaz Schilens and Stephen Hill should eventually make this team's vertical game much better than it was with Burress. Add that to a strong rushing attack (New York ranked 10th in the league in good run-blocking rate), and it might be enough to vault Gang Green back into the postseason and onto the Super Bowl track Ryan has seen in this club's future in previous seasons. It's really hard to overstate how little preseason performances can mean. Yes, I'm calling the Jets a dark horse, not a favorite. But it's because they're already extremely good in one area, and even competence in another could make them very good.
Wait, so the defense is going to turn itself around this year (with no evidence as to why) and Chaz Schillens and Stephen Hill are going to vault this offense into the super bowl? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
His point was that the defense doesn't really need to "turn itself around." Last year was a sub-par year for our defense, yet we still ranked very well in a lot of key statistics. The article's point was that if the defense has any improvement from last year (which there are good arguments supporting this statement), then the team could have POTENTIAL to make it to the post-season. Nobody made any superbowl promises anywhere in this article.
why are you here exactly its one thing to post on a forum for a team you're a fan of but for a team you dont even like?
The defense can be outstanding, but unless the offense actually finds the endzone this season, the Jets won't even make the playoffs. If you want to make an intelligent argument as to why the Jets offense will do alright, then fine, but Chaz Schillens? Come on lol
I don't know why the defense would have to turn around from being ranked fifth.... and to add on, the defense should be better. Our safety position got a huge upgrade with Landry (pro-bowler when healthy) and Bell who has always been solid (great against run). D-line is by far and away much much better at rushing the passer this year. Maybin will get a full season after bulking up. We still have the best CB tandem in the NFL + Wilson is a pretty good nickel. I don't see where this defense is bad. Schilens and Hill's jobs are too stretch the field. That alone will make this offense better (if they do their job and stay healthy). The only huge question marks on this team are RT, WR corps, and QB. We'll see. Who knows, Sanchez could play lights out.
Exactly. Defense ranked 5th last year. The scoring defense should regress back to the mean. Last year, the Jets also lost an abnormally high percentage of their team fumbles. That should also regress back to the mean. Defense has also improved on all three levels, with Coples up front (plus Ellis's development), Davis at LB with a healthy Bryan Thomas, and Bell/Landry at safety. The offense's two biggest problems last year were turning the ball over and lack of chunk plays. Tebow package should help with not turning the ball over, and Hill/Schilens should help us stretch the field a lot better. That's why I've said the Jets will make the playoffs. A more explosive offense. Not necessarily a good one, but one that now has the pieces to be better one, and one that can compliment the defense better. That will really help this team out. Turn the ball over less, make more big plays, and combine that with a top 3 defense in the NFL. The Jets made the playoffs two straight years with a mediocre (or worse) offense, and were 8-8 last year despite all hell breaking loose. We're not as far off as some would have you think...
The case for the defense being stronger this year is pretty good. They've got Wilkerson and Ellis in their 2nd years up front along with the addition of Coples. they didn't lose Pouha or Devito in the process of adding Coples. The defensive line should be consistently strong this year and is likely to get more pressure on the passer in the process. The linebackers are still the weakest group on the defense but they're weak with people like David Harris, Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas in the mix. That's not star caliber but it's not a disaster area by any means. The secondary just looks strong at this point. This is going to be the first Jets defense since 2009 that was strong upfront and in the defensive backfield. That hasn't been the case since Jenkins tore his knee up in mid-2009. I have no problem seeing this defense as potentially capable of being a dominant top 5 unit. Last year's defense was technically top 5 but they got no pressure on the passer and they couldn't stop a dedicated rushing attack. This year at least the pass pressure should go up and that will keep teams out of consistent down and distance situations where they can ground and pound against the Jets.
Like every other team not named Dolphins or Browns the Jets have a Super Bowl goal and a chance to make it there. A lot has to go right for the Jets to make it there. For a team like New England they just need not to have a few things go wrong. The Jets need nothing to go wrong and a lot to go right. It could happen. Lord I hope so.
Yes, Mike Pettine called all defensive plays. Rex tried to focus more on being the Head Coach which I didn't think was a good idea. He should focus on his strength, defense.
If the Hill/Sanchez connection developes the explosive play potential will be there a couple of times a game. They've only got to be right once. Whoever is in coverage has to be right all game
They went 8-8 last year. I don't think they got worse from last year. If they win the Super Bowl I see it being one of 9-7 seasons where as the 5/6 seed we win the SB like the Giants and Packers
The intro to the article lays out some good points as well, not specifically pertaining to the Jets, but the NFL as of late. In most years, the Super Bowl is won by teams that made the playoffs in the prior campaign, as there have been only 11 cases in which teams went from not making the playoffs one year to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy the next. While the chances of that happening this season aren't great, it should be noted this has happened six times in the past 13 seasons, so it is becoming more common of late. There are a couple of teams that did not make the playoffs in 2011 that are already being touted as either divisional favorites (Philadelphia Eagles) or somewhat under-the-radar Super Bowl contenders (Chicago Bears) that would seem to be good candidates for making it seven teams in the past 14 seasons. But let's take this one step further by looking at three teams that would truly fit the dark-horse label if they won the Super Bowl this season. Again, these aren't favorites, just teams that fit the profile.
