One of the reasons for this phenomenon is hard for everyone to grasp, including me. But it's true. Three propositions: 1. Tebow has some things he doesn't do well, things he will have to master if he plans on playing in the NFL. 2. However, the things Tebow doesn't do well, while essential, have a very low correlation with winning. 3. The things Tebow does well have a very high correlation with winning. So he's a bit of an odd duck -- the results are often counterintuitive, because we have in imperfect grasp of what correlates with winning. If he can just become average (even 40th percentile) in the things he currently falls short, his other correlations have a high degree of winning in them.
Thank you for your prediction, Nostradamus, but the way things are unfolding, there is a 50/50 chance he becomes QB1 this season.
On 2), I gotta say huh? Tebow doesn't throw well. Doesn't throw accurate. Doesn't throw TDs. Everybody is almost universal in the idea that elite QBs make it far in the playoffs and win SBs. Brady, Manning, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, etc. win and win alot. On 3), what? Its not clear what Tebow does well, except he won some games. So winning some games correlates with winning i guess. But running QBs really doesn't have much correlation since the days of old. Not trying to be particularly argumentative but I have no idea what you were trying to even say here.
Well, it seems like you're unwilling or unable to have any more precision than "throw." I mean if you look very closely. If it's not clear to you what he does well, no wonder it's not clear to you why it correlates with winning. These are things that it's not even clear Tebow is doing on purpose -- they may be tendencies he just falls into. It's possible his success is Forrest Gump-like. He just does what feels natural to him. I'll throw out some examples: 1. Tebow always generates a high number of air-yards-per-attempt. AYPA. He led the NFL in AYPA last year. You can see it in action how he just shakes off or ignores receivers at close range, and trots around looking for a chunk yardage throw. Whether he's doing because he's greedy for first down throws or chunks, or because he's blind, or because he lacks confidence in his short throws -- high AYPA is actually something that has been shown to correlate with wins. The converse is a classic truth -- a quarterback that goes out and throws a high number of short throws, even if he completes them, does not correlate highly with wins. (There are always exceptions). 2. Tebow always throws interceptions at a low rate. Yes, he holds the ball and yes he doesn't seem to want to throw it unless it's a sure thing. But as a byproduct, he throws interceptions at a very low rate, especially for a quarterback with his presumed accuracy issues. People try and sluff it off and say "he throws it so bad you can't even intercept it," but that's nonsense. Inaccurate throws tend to get intercepted. Yet Tebow mysteriously avoids interceptions. He sort of holds onto the ball like it's his lunch or something. Correlates with winning. 3. Tebow throws touchdowns at a high rate. For some reason, always has. Seems to have an eye for the killer strike. Correlates with winning. (In every way, he's sort of a knockout punch artists -- looking for long throws, hesitant and indecisive on short ones). 4. Tebow throws the long ball with great accuracy. Probably the best on the Jets, and actually pretty respectable compared to any NFL QB. He was second in the NFL last year in passes completed for over 25 yards. This is really another restatement of #1. 5. Running quarterbacks are hard to beat, meaning that they win disproportionately to their passing stats. Remember how terrible Vince Young kept winning at prodigous rate, and Mike Vick got a team to the NFC championship at a time when he wasn't nearly as proficient as he is now. Although pocket passing is an essential in the NFL, all things being equal, being able to run for first downs or touchdowns generates a high correlation with winning. 6. Scrambling quarterbacks (avoiding sacks as opposed to running for positive yardage) have a high correlation with winning. 7. Powerful arm -- quarterbacks that can throw it hard, across the field, are at an advantage in this league. The geometry of the game is affected by the velocity of the ball A weak arm is a deal-breaker for many quarterbacks who would look better than Tebow to the naked eye. I think Kellen Moore or Colt McCoy might look better in practice than Tebow, but over time their tendency to win is compromised by the downfield and cross-field throws they never attempt. Anyway, last year we got to see how the game of football is sort of counter-intuitive in many ways. We're conditioned to think that it has to be done the Peyton Manning way or the Tom Brady way -- but actually the Eli Manning way won the Super Bowl, and the Tim Tebow way generated an 8-5 record. If he can improve the things he doesn't do well -- footwork, anticipation, resetting in the pocket, and delivering short to intermediate throws accurately and quickly -- he's got some really good other tendencies to win.
here is an article with correlation of passing stats and winning. http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/ here is a link to stats if you care to look at them http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/passing.htm
Brady hasn't won a Super Bowl in almost 10 seasons, when NE won their 3 Super Bowls, they had a different formula than Pass, Pass, Pass. They used to run the ball and play Defense. All of the Pass yards are pretty and the records etc, etc, but the formula is coming up empty in the biggest of games for the Pats. Manning has One superbowl and has been in the league for 15 years. Just by law of averages every NFL franchise should win the Super bowl once every 32 years. Bottom line, one aint enough for as many years in the league he has played. Brees and Rodgers are a lil younger and it remains to be seen how many rings they can rack up past one. But the pass, pass, formula has been known to fail for them as well~ With a good pass rush, a cold, windy January day. Championships will always be won with good defenses, and ball control offense, its not the only way, but it will always be a way.
He has only started about 16 or 17 games so far. He is doing pretty well, He has a better throwing motion now. Maybe he can get it together??
The question is why are the Jets fans harping so much on an incomplete pass from their backup Qb? I would be much more concerned about a pick-6 Interception from my starting Qb.
This is not a ridiculous statement at all. I said "If he's not Tim Tebow the performances he'd put up in the first two games would have gotten him cut on Tuesday." He has the worst mechanics of any QB currently playing in the NFL in any role at all. His mechanics are so bad that the average fan can pick up the bad stuff as Tebow is throwing the ball during the game. If I see that long wind-up with his arm basically coming up from his waist one more time I'm going to scream. Is he stupid or something? He's been told over and over again that he has to shorten his throwing motion and he needs to hold the ball higher. WTF is he doing still throwing that ball the same way in his 3rd NFL camp? His accuracy is horrible and the ball is almost never a tight spiral even when he does complete a pass. His accuracy is so bad that it looks like he's misfring on about a fifth of the throws. Just pathetic passes that wobble out and never come anywhere near their target. Am I pissed off at him at this point? Hell yeah I'm pissed off at him. Where the hell does he get the idea that he can continue throwing the ball with that same motion and compete for an NFL starting QB job? What kind of arrogance does he have that he's still got the same horrible mechanics in play that made people doubt his ability to play QB in the NFL when he was coming out of college? Did John Elway running him out of town in Denver not make the point clearly enough that there are some things you need to be able to do at a basic level as an NFL QB, like throw the ball well, and that he had failed at that? WTF are we doing watching him throw balls with a motion that would make your average high school senior QB wince? And yeah I'm really pissed off that the Jets are so dysfunctional that they're letting him play QB despite the fact that he's either too stupid or too arrogant to make the necessary changes to improve his accuracy and make him a better NFL QB prospect.
Its the way it happened man, not just the end results. A 60 yard bomb that hits a reciever perfect in the hands but gets bobbled and dropped goes down the same as a ball the spikes straight into the ground by your reasoning.
I think the point is critiquing a backup is roughly as important as knowing how good your 3rd string center is. Who gives a shit. Hopefully tebow can fake a punt occasionally and run some wildcat plays, that would make him 10 time more useful than any other backup qb in the league. Over analysing it further than that is silly..for the record I think Sanchez has done ok given the circumstances and the pick does not concern me. The line concerns me greatly
Perhaps you should check the thread title. Edit: And I agree the Oline is our biggest problem right now, but I didnt make the thread.
Tebow isn't going to be the starter, this is just a bullshit kneejerk thread. People only feed into this shit when they come in here bashing the guy. He is what he is. A backup who needs work but can help out in the interim in several ways. The sooner both sides grasp that the sooner the bullshit can go away
I never bashed him, the quote I responded to was an attempt to bash Sanchez with faulty reasoning, I responded to that. Its the other way around.
Dude, your full of shit. Tebow has shortened his delivery and he's holding the ball higher. He's spinning the ball nicely and his accuracy has been just fine.
Tim Tebow is the worst QB I've ever seen, and as a Jets fan I've seen plenty of bad QB's. He doesn't throw the ball well enough to run an NFL offense. That's obvious from watching his feeble and pathetic attempts to do what most high school QB's can do very well by their senior year, throw a tight spiral on target to a moving receiver. The fact that Tim Tebow has been in the NFL for three years now and still cannot throw a football tells me that he is either stupid enough not to be able to learn how to do this or arrogant enough to think that he doesn't have too. The Jets should just cut him.
