I get the impression that Tebow supporters minimize his failures and scrutinize his teammates'. Every NFL team has drops and missed FG's. Let's add Demos' 5-8 extra yards in Mile High Stadium (6.5. My point is, by the end of the Chicago game, Tebow had put Prater at the 53 and 59. Even if we assume that Prater is exactly between Janikowski and the league average, the graph provided by catfish shows that Prater would have approximately a 70% chance to make a 53 yarder and a 57.5% chance to hit a 59. That means his probability of hitting both Field Goals is... (0.7*0.575), or 40.25%. As for every other game where Prater "bailed" out Tebow, they were all away games.
Please, enlighten or correct me. I didn't infer that the two events weren't independent of one another.
Trying to remember exactly which way to calculate it, but the prob of the first is 70% and the prob of the second is 57.5%. There's no way the prob of making both of them would be under 50%. If pressed to decide right now, I'd wager that you average the probabilities
You've done it twice, and maybe if I feel like looking it up tonight, I will, but I have better things to do at the moment I am reading this than dig through the ultimate encyclopedia of fanboyism that this sewer of a sub-forum has become. You will of course argue that it wasn't what you meant when I point those instances out, but you seem enraptured with arguing against reality from your obsessive yet short posting history here, but others will see the truth. You bore me, otherwise I'd make it a priority.
The drop was so huge that NFL films sound FX wrapped a classic segment around it with Tebow putting his arm around Thomas and telling him he would catch the winning TD and not to worry about the drop. It was that big a deal, in that game, because of what happened afterwards. A much more important point is this : why is Tebow's TD drive where Prater was only used for an extra point and a drive that equaled over HALF the points in the game (and came late in the 4th quarter, in clutch time ) and also contributed to the 18 for 24 , 191 yards and TD , NEVER mentioned but only the field goals are brought up? Obviously it is bias. When a team is down 10-0 with minutes left and ultimately wins 13-10 why is only 6 out of those 13 points brought up over and over and over and over again? Let me give all the anti Tebow cultist (Vandy I am not saying you are one at all) a bit of advice and I wont do it again. Stay away from the Chicago game when making anti Tebow points, there are other games to choose from that will fit your needs much better. The Chicago game is Tebow time in an absolutely mythical format much more than his iconic 95 yard drive against the Jets. Here is reality UNFILTERED [YOUTUBE]xxa-InE0COU[/YOUTUBE]
Because, in hind sight, NFL games are judged purely in a black-or-white sense (win or loss). Not that I agree with it but it's true. No one ever remembers the QB who almost led a bunch of comeback victories.
But in this case he DID lead the comeback victory, I refer you to my time machine called a digital camera and youtbe in the previous post.
The reason why I talk about Prater's field goals and the probability he makes them is because, as I said in one Tebowmania forum at one point, I'm trying to argue that whenever a QB leaves their team with a very low probability of winning that is overcome. Because this is hard to quantify, I point to Prater's field goals as easy examples to "calculate". Another example I can think of (other than a very long game-winning field goal as time expires) is a hail mary TD pass as time expires.
In this case the QB leaving his team with a low probability to overcome is false . I need only to point towards the missed 25 yard field goal and the dropped 59 yard TD that occurred BEFORE the 4th quarter heroics, in this game he actually overcame his team mates. . Stay away form Chicago, pick another game.
That was a sweet passed that Thomas dropped. Tebow's got a freakish ability to drop it right in there from distance. He's just got to dial in the mechanics for the short, quick throws. If he didn't have that unusual ability to put a long ball right on the button, I'd have lost interest a long time ago. But he's got it -- he's got the parts you can't teach. He's just got to keep putting more pieces together.
I'm not minimizing anything, you are taking a clutch kick or 2 in one game and stretching out to imply that Prater bailed Tebow out a lot during the season. The fact of the matter is those 2 field goals were 66% of the field goals he made over 50 yard for the entire season, he was beyond pathetic on 40-49 yard range. he had winning field goals in 4 games I believe, Miami, SD, Minn,and Chicage Miami he went 1-3, missing 2 from 40-49 yard before hitting 1 from 50+, SD he hit a 30-39 yarder, which is a 90% kick Minnesota he hit a 23 yarder to avoid OT as close to a 100% kick as exists Chicago he missed a 25 yarder but drilled a 51 yarder and a 59 yarder to win it. He bailed out Tebow in exactly 1 game. I will accept that the Defense deserves more credit than Tebow in the Wins, I also think that with the exception of KC and possibly buffalo they deserve more blame for the losses than Tebow. But Prater didn't bail out shit. With the exception of the chicago game he was average at best. Kickoffs on the other hand he is great at.
vs. Miami. If Prater doesn't hit that 52-yarder in OT the ESPN headline wouldn't be "Tim Tebow leads 2-TD rally as Broncos stun winless Dolphins in OT". Without that FG the Broncos lose or tie. vs. San Diego. Prater 3 FG's (more than half the team's points) and the OT FG came at 0:29 left. Novak missing a 53-yarder kept Denver alive. Tebow squandered two OT possessions. vs. Minny. The "great 4th Quarter comeback here" was 2 FG's. and Chicago. That's four. That's 4 out of his 7 regular season wins. And losing just one of them would turn the Broncos into a non-playoff team. So yes, Prater being clutch as f@#$ matters significantly. If Tebow didn't make the playoffs last year and beat the Steelers he'd still receive praise now but it would be much less. By "bailed out" I mean the final score of the game or OT was not provided by Tebow because he failed to lead his team to the TD and he failed to get a close enough FG to make it a high % FG. Prater not missing FG's earlier in the game means Tebow's "magical" drives, in some cases, don't happen because the Broncos are already up or tied. Even if that's the case, the point I'm trying to make is that you're acting as though Tebow delivered wins to his team when he didn't. The rally cry of Tebowites is that he took over a crap team and turned them into a playoff team. I'm disproving that.
Sorry but the good Lord reached down from heaven and ripped that ball out of Barber's hands. Barber NEVER fumbles.
I am trolling??? I was up front from the beginning that I was a Packers fan who liked Tebow. We have many other teams fans on our Packers sites and I don't consider them trolls. I have been pretty honest about where Tebow is as a player. He has a long way to go. By the way, I agree with you about Cowboysfan. He is a good poster, as are most of the posters in here. The mods do a good job IMO.
I haven't had much time to post lately because of my job and the draft. I have been reading though and think there has been very good discussion.
That's my point -- people seem to be able to grasp that you are a fan of the Packers that likes to post here. Cowboys Fan even has a similar name as you (different team), but because he posts POSITIVE things about a Jet (Tebow), with information that might be interesting, he gets lumped in as a "nut." I'm just not seeing the problem. It's all good natured.
Not at all I was making the counter point to the claim that only the kicker mattered in the bears game.
