1. Andrew Luck, QB, Colts Everybody thinks he's the 1 pick. He's the 1 pick. 2. Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins One of the top two players in the draft. Redskins didn't trade up here to take anybody else. 3. Matt Kalil, LT, Vikings The Vikings have a weak LT in Charlie Johnson. It's not rocket science to know that when you spent the 12 pick on your QB last year you better cover his ass. 4. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns 28th in rushing last year. Colt McCoy was under pressure all year long. Fans are annoyed at the inability to draft star players. It's not rocket science. 5. Mo Claiborne, CB, Buccaneers One CB is facing trial, the other one is a million years old. Claiborne is clearly one of the top 5 players in this draft. It's not rocket science. 6. Justin Blackmon, WR, Rams #1 pick QB two years ago took a step back last year. Blackmon is the best WR in the draft and widely seen as one of the 6 elite players available. It's not rocket science. 7. Michael Floyd, WR, Jaguars All the elite prospects are gone. The #1 WR on the Jaguars roster last year caught 44 passes for under 10 yards a pop. Hes 5'8" tall. The guy they signed in free agency is a #2. Floyd is very close to Blackmon in overall ability and he's huge. They've got a QB they spent a #1 pick on last year who struggled. It's not rocket science. 8. Melvin Ingram, OLB, Dolphins Jason Taylor is retired. Cameron Wake is 30 years old. Karlos Dansby is 30 years old. The Fins need a pass rusher as badly as anybody including the Jets. It's not rocket science. 9. Luke Kuechly, MLB, Panthers Dan Connors signed with the Cowboys, the Panthers chose not to re-sign Jordan Senn. They have a huge hole in the middle of the field and Kuechly is the man to fill it. It's not rocket science. 10. Fletcher Cox, DT, Eagles The Bills wanted Kuechly or Floyd, both of whom are gone. They want a LT but not on this pick. The Eagles really want Cox and they jump hard on the Bills offer to trade up. It's not rocket science. 11. David DeCastro, G, Chiefs Ryan Lilja turns 31 this year. DeCastro is an elite prospect sitting there on the 11 pick due to the position he plays. Scott Pioli has done some funny things with picks since coming to the Chiefs but he really values elite players. It's not rocket science. 12. Quinton Coples, DE, Seahawks The Seahawks need a 4-3 pass rusher bad. They stop Coples slide. It's not rocket science. 13. Michael Brockers, DE/NT, Cardinals The Cardinals really wanted David DeCastro here but he didn't fall to them. They're undermanned on the DL and they'll go for the best fit in a 3 man front which is Brockers. It's not rocket science. 14. Mark Barron, SS, Cowboys The Cowboys haven't had a great pair of safeties since 2007. They went 13-3 that year. Jerry Jones promised changes in the secondary after last season's disappointing 23rd ranked pass defense. It's not rocket science. 15. Riley Reiff, LT, Bills The Bills need a LT and now they got the same guy they'd have taken on the 10 but they also have the Eagles 3rd and 5th rounders. It's not rocket science. 16. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Browns All of the Jets top picks are off the board at this point. The Browns offer the 22 and the 68 to move up and get their QB. The Jets board right now is full of players who would look good on the 22, including Nick Perry, Mike Adams, Cordy Glenn, Dont'a Hightower, Whitney Mercilus and Courtney Upshaw. It's not rocket science.
would absolutely love it. How do you think our board would look after the trade? Mine Hightower, Upshaw, Perry, Mercilus, Glenn and Adams. I would have Adams above Glenn because i think OT>OG, but he flunked the only test you don't study for.
Just curious why you think the Browns will feel compelled to move up for Tannehill? Other doesn't appear to be other teams between 16-22 that need a QB. And the teams remaining in the 1st don't need a QB, which means the risk is a team trading back into the 1st. The team most likely to trade out of the first is the Patsies but they're after the Browns.
I would be in favor of this as well, but I would be kind of surprised if the Dolphins don't take Tannehill at 8.
My only question would be if Tannehill had fallen all the way to 16, why would the Browns trade up to get him. I looks to me that none of the teams below 16 would draft him for varying reasons (established QB or still believe in young QB) and that the cost of trading back into the first round, above 22, by one of the teams that passed on him prior to 16 would be too high (Don't value him as top 15 prospect so wont waste whole 2012 draft or future high picks in 2013).
The Browns would trade up for Tannehill because they need a QB long-term and they have Colt McCoy to sit there and take the hits next season while Tannehill develops. They just don't want to spend the 4 pick on him with Richardson out there and an angry fan base and Tannehill kind of raw. The Dolphins ultimately aren't going to take Ryan Tannehill on the 8 for the same reason the Browns won't take him on the 4: he's not top 10 value. Both teams are likely to be looking for ways to get Tannehill later in the round because they've both spent enough of their evaluation process on him so far to know he's a real prospect, just not a sure thing like Luck and RGIII. The Browns will take Tannehill on 22 if he's still there. That gives the Dolphins about 11 picks (11-21) in which to find a trade-up above them. The cost of trading back into to the first round will be high for the Dolphins and they're not going to blow a bunch of picks trading up if they weren't willing to take him on the 8, which they probably won't. So that cuts out 11 to 13 in the equation. So now you have a situation in which the Browns are the ceiling at 22 and the Dolphins are trying to find the right trade-up where they don't have to sell the farm to make the deal. I figure the Jets at 16 is the point at which the Browns blink and decide giving up the 4th pick of the 3rd round is a good price to pay to get their guy. The Fins will still be struggling with the notion of giving up their 2nd plus a 1st next year plus probably a late pick to move up before that. Of the teams right in front of the Jets the Cowboys and the Eagles will both have players falling to them that they really want in Barron and Cox. So they're not going to sell a pick to the Fins in that situation, at least not without a premium on it. The 16 is the Tannehill pick. It's not rocket science.
^The problem with that Br4d is that when it comes to franchise QB's, you don't fuck around. If they think a guy is a legit QB option, then at 8 the dolphins will take him. Why give up almost the same as what the Skins gave for RGIII for Tannehill instead of just taking him at 8.
If I'm Cleveland, and I saw Miami wasn't willing to pick him at #8, there's no way I'd think they're going to trade their 2nd and next years 1st to get in front of their 22nd pick. None of the teams between the Jets @ 16 and Cleveland @ 22 are looking for a QB. I can't see Cleveland throwing away a 3rd round pick for no reason.
If the Phins dont take Tannehill at #8 I think that all looks fairly likely up to #16 (much as we might wish it to be true I just dont see us trading down from that spot (as I dont see anyone willing to trade up)).
Well, the assumption that this is all based on is that both the Browns and the Fins want Tannehill but not enough to spend the 4 and the 8 on. The cost of moving up above the 22 for the Fins will always include their 1st round pick next season, which is going to have a value of 500 or so on the chart (16 pick/2). The cost of the 21 pick is 800 pts. So to get up to 21 the Fins are going to give up their 3rd and 4th this year plus the 1st next season. The cost of the 17 pick is 950. So to make that trade the Fins have to give up their 2nd this year plus the 1st next year. If they really want Tannehill they probably make the jump to 17, which costs them their 2nd rounder. They still have the same number of players out of this draft that they would have gotten at that point. The cost is next year's 1st which if you're the Dolphins you have to believe is going to be substantially lower than #8 overall. You have your franchise QB prospect moving forward. You still have your 3rd and 4th rounders this year. You have Garrard and Moore to hold the fort until Tannehill is ready to go. He won't even get forced in by an injury so he'll get the full year of coaching and adjustments to the pro life. I think it's not rocket science for either the Browns or the Fins to behave the way I am suggesting, assuming they have locked onto Tannehill as a solid franchise prospect but by no means a sure thing.
The Skins gave up 3 1sts and a 2nd for RGIII. The Fins in trading up will give up no more than a 2nd and a 1st. The trade-ups are not close in value at all. The Skins package is worth 3x the Fins package in actual value. The Skins gave up 3,000 pts of value (#6 pick, #39 pick, 1 in 2013, 1 in 2014) for RGIII. They effectively paid the price of the #1 pick to exercise the #2. The Fins will give up no more than about 990 pts of value to take Tannehill in the trade-up to 17 scenario. Their 8 pick is worth 1,400 pts. By doing the trade back up option they get their franchise QB and they save about 400 pts of value, equivalant to a mid 2nd round pick.
Well it's the Browns and the Fins so it might be minor fireworks but if it turns into rocket science they are both out of the running.
I understand what you're saying but if Miami really likes Tannehill that much, they're not going to pass on him at 8 and risk a team like Seattle or KC taking him.
What did the Jets do in 2000 with Chad Pennington on the board and a 35 year old QB one year removed from a serious achilles injury? They honored their board and passed on him twice before taking him where he was appropriate on the 18. What did the Browns do with hometown favorite Brady Quinn on the board in 2007? They passed on him at 3, which of course was the right move, and then traded back into the 1st round to get him on 21. Teams don't necessarily identify a QB as "must-have", they can also identify him as "would-like-to-have-if-the-price-is-right." The idea that you jump up for a franchise QB is only valid if the guy is a guaranteed franchise QB and there are very few of those.
Nice idea but Polian says everybody is trying to trade down including Cleveland. It will be very difficult to pull off. He also says Tannehill is a late 1st round early 2nd round pick. I think Cleveland can wait.
Polian says everybody from 3 to 16 is looking to trade down. I suspect the market for a trade down will get a bit better at that point as players fall. The Bengals at 17 have 2 1st round picks. They're a prime target for a team looking to trade up for somebody like Tannehill. I suspect the Browns would rather trade with the Jets than pay a premium to the Bengals for their pick. Just a hunch on that one but I think it is a good one. The Fins on the other hand could easily make a deal for the 17.
Last year Locker and ponder were not considered "first round value" by the experts who cover the draft. Teams who needed a QB on the other hand not only took them first round, but in the top 12. If you think a guy can be your long term starting QB you draft him at 8. Hell maybe even 4. Its not rocket sicence.
