Whatever else you can say about Darrelle Revis, and there's a lot to be said about him, he clearly cannot deliver a Super Bowl berth by having an all-world season. If he could then Peyton Manning would have rolled over for the Jets in 2009 when Revis had one of the greatest seasons ever by a CB. All you can really say about 2010 in the end is that Rashard Mendenhall was worth more on the field than Revis in the AFC championship game and that Revis couldn't cover somebody else's guy and his own also on the most important play of the game at the end. I've done this before and someday I probably should do the full logic exercise, but in brief here it goes. The things that have to happen before a CB matters: 1. Play called is a pass. 2. Pass Protection. 3. Read. 4. Accurate Throw to the CB's Receiver. 5. Said receiver would not make the catch only if the difference between the guy that is covering him and another CB would be decisive. The things that happen that make a particular CB unimportant: 1. Play called is a run. 2. Sack before the throw is off. 3. Pass is to another receiver than the guy the CB is covering. 4. Pass is to the guy the CB is covering but is off target. 5. CB makes a play that a replacement level CB on the same team could not make to prevent a reception. Obviously in an unbounded environment in which resources are not an issue it is never a bad thing to have the best possible CB on the field in the matrix above. You always want the best chance to stop a completion from occurring and so in that unbounded environment you pay whatever you have to to stop it. The NFL is not an unbounded environment. The salary cap means that teams have to decide where to invest their dollars in order to have the greatest impact on the field. So what you want is to have the least valuable cog possible at each position that still achieves the overall end result desired. Ok, so let's look at the steps again and see where a CB and his cap dollars really make an impact on the field: 1. Play called is a pass. Impact: none. 2. Sack before the throw is off. Impact: variable. The sack can be the result of coverage, which must be blanket coverage in order to cause that result, or it can be the result of pass protection being faulty, or it can be the result of the QB not properly putting the football out of play before he is sacked. 3. Pass is to another guy than the CB is covering. Impact: none. The pass is going somewhere else and as we have observed on multiple occasions even the best CB in the world can't stop that. 4. Pass is to the guy he's covering but is off-target. Impact: none. If the pass is off-target it's off-target. 5. Pass is the the guy he's covering and is accurate. Impact: high. If the guy is going to catch the pass short of it being defended then who the CB is matters as long as another CB could not also make that play. So we're 5 deep into the tree of possible results before you seriously begin measuring the value of a particular CB over one of the guys who might replace him. All of the following things have been tested before we get to the CB being highly relevant: Play call, pass blocking, pass rushing, QB's selection of targets and then the accuracy of his throw, at the same time that we're testing the CB's coverage skills we're also testing the WR's hands and ability to make big plays. Both players are way down the food chain in terms of importance in the overall system. they're off on an island so to speak and if the ship doesn't come in at that island they made no real difference in the play. In that circumstance it makes more sense to devote limited cap dollars to things that occur earlier in the sequence of events and that have the tendency to negate the value of CB's and WR's. Like pass rushers, pass blockers and QB's. Even in the matchup on the island the WR is more important than the guy covering him because his value determines the value that is required to defend him. Yes, you could easily be facing Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson, in which case a great CB is valuable. However you could also, and most probably, be facing lesser WR's in which case the value needed at CB is also lesser. There's no point on covering Johny Knox or Percy Harvin with Darrelle Revis when you could easily get away with Antonio Cromartie or Kyle Wilson and lose almost nothing in the process. The value of the great pass rusher will always be there regardless of who the opposing WR's are but the value of the great CB may well go to waste in a situation in which the passes go everywhere but to his guy or his guy just isn't great to start with. The above is a poor substitute for the appropriate lesson in logic that a superstar CB represents vs other defensive elements, but I don't have two days to sit down and iron out the cases to make the logic irrefutable. All I'll say is that one of the great defensive backfield coaches in history, Bill Belichik, has repeatedly let go of good to great CB's and repeatedly put players of completely arguable value (Troy Brown, Julian Edelman) on the field as a CB while on the way to the Super Bowl. I may not know what I'm talking about well enough to make that value judgement but he clearly does and he's given us no doubt about where a CB rates in the salary cap competition.
Based on your logic, might as well not have an elite receiver either, because he only makes an impact when the ball is thrown to him, and he makes a reception no other replaceable WR could make. On the belicheck thing, Who, besides Tom Brady has BB actually paid elite money to long term? 4 people? Logan Mankins, Matt Light and Vince Wilfork are the only ones that come to mind, and Light might not have even gotten elite money. Belicheck doesn't pay anybody unless they are one of the top 3 people at their position in the league. So him letting CB's go, works the same for DL, LB, DB, OL, RB, WR and TE to this point. So saying he let Asante Samuel walk to prove your point works the same as if I turnaround and say he traded Deion Branch because he wanted to be paid, or Richard Seymour before he wanted to be paid, or Damien Woody or a handful of other guys he let walk in their prime rather than pay them.
The Lions agree with you and also disagree. Maybe it was just because Calvin Johnson was that much better than all the other #1 WR's they took or maybe it was because they got a top 3 QB and DT back to back drafts (hint, hint as to which was most important.) So Belichik has only paid QB, LT, LG, NT and ROLB (Adalius Thomas - mistake, but still) as elite money. He's also paid Rodney Harrison nearly elite money (for a safety) and Richard Seymour nearly elite money. Belichik has kept the money in the center of the field and close to the line of scrimmage and he has paid sackers in the process. He has paid pass protectors elite money. In short he has done the smart thing with his cap room.
Jason at nyjetscap.com has done a great write up on why Revis won't be traded. Basically, by using the voiding language the Jets have forced themselves to extend Revis before the 2013 Super Bowl, else they take an accelerated $9m cap hit in 2014 whether he stays or goes. Trading him doesn't assuage the impact one bit. We literally cannot afford to trade him.
Calvin Johnson is by far the most important player on the Lions. That offense would not nearly be as good and Stafford wouldnt have passed for even close to 4200 yards. In the Saints game, Stafford just pretty much threw up a ball 50 yards down the field in the vicinity of Calvin Johnson, and what happened? He obviously came down with it. A little later in the game, Stafford threw the same exact pass down field, except it was to Titus Young, and what happened? It was intercepted. When a WR has that much impact on a throw that would normally be picked off if thrown to an average receiver but instead turns into a 50 yard gain, he is easily one of the most valuable players in the league. With that said, I do agree with you that Revis is expendable for the right price... IMO, I would rather have a top 3 RB, WR, OLB, NT, QB, MLB and Safety instead of the best CB. Those players can effect the game on evey single play; Revis cant do that simply because of the position he plays... If the Browns offered their 4th overall, 22nd and maybe 3rd rounder, I would pull the trigger. With those picks you could add Trent Richardson, Stephen Hill and maybe Tru Johnson... Add that to our own picks and you rebuild your team for the next 10 years. I would even say the an Elite RB like Trent is more valuable on THIS team than Revis... Despite this, I am pretty positive Revis can not be traded and he has 0 leverage to hold out again so I guess this is a moot point.
Regardless of what Br4d thinks, the best player in the NFL at a particular position does make a significant impact on the field, no matter what position they play. Yes that does include kickers and punters. Do they all make the same impact? No a punter isn't worth the same as the best WR. The best WR isn't worth the same as the best QB. But regardless having the best player in the league at his position is not something you just want to throw away. It's pure lunacy.
Its not worth throwing away, no. But Im just trying to see this as objectively as possible. I want Revis to end his career as a Jet, be a HOF and win a SB with the Jets... But maybe having an elite talent at a more impactful position or even filling out the rosters holes might help us win a SB more. What if we dont win a SB in Revis’ career as a Jet? That could be likely, and would be throwing the talent away despite him having a HOF career on the Jets. Maybe filling out this roster is what we need? I mean think about a draft of Trent Richardson, Nick Perry, Cordy Glenn, Tru Johnson, Mo Sanu in the first 3 rounds (obviously all hypothetical and just playing out the scenario I named above)... That draft could completely fill out this team for the next 8 years and expand that window of winning a SB... Oh well, its not going to happen and Revis will be a Jet until 2014.
Saying Revis can be defeated simply by throwing away from him is too simplistic, especially if throwing away from their star WR or trying to run the ball instead of passing is something the other team can not do well. Sometimes taking out the other team's 'star player' whether it be a WR or RB is enough to beat that team. Taking out Calvin Johnson would destroy the Lioins since their entire offense goes through him. Without Calvin they have no passing game, and without a passing game they have no running game. So on and so on.
What do you think is fair value for Revis? I would say a minimum of 2 first round picks. Then in order for it to work in our favor, we have to get two top level talents with those picks. The chances IMO would be pretty unlikely those two players would provide the same value to this franchise as Darrelle Revis. Is it possible we don't win a ring with him? Of course, a number of great players never won a ring. You can debate his positions value all you want, but you are not going to simply be able to trade Darrelle Revis for the best player at his position in the NFL where the position is going to be more impactful than CB. It won't happen, nobody will trade away their superstar, because its down right lunacy to entertain the idea unless something crazy has happened, ala the Jay Cutler fiasco a few years back.
Most definitely 2 firsts (hence the cleveland scenario), I would still probably prefer more... Who do you think would be more valuable on this team, Revis or say Arian Foster? I think Arian Foster would impact this team a lot more simply because the amount of plays he can influence in a game can be up to over 30 plays, meanwhile Revis would be lucky to impact 10 plays a game. If we could get Cleveland’s 2 firsts (and maybe 3rd), we could potentially draft Trent Richardson, who I think could very easily reach the level of Arian Foster and even exceed that. With that, you are also adding MUCH needed depth. Or what if we could trade Revis for Aldon Smith and the 49ers 1st? I would think really hard about that. I love Revis and would say he is probably my favorite Jet, but at this point in his career, if the right trade came along (which it wont due to contract situations) I might be for it.
When Revis is demanding a $15M+ a year contract the Jets will either bend to that and leave the championship competition to more competent teams or they'll fold and get less than he's worth in trade. If they act right at the beginning of the 2013 season they'll get the most value because they won't be acting under the pressure of negotiations with Revis. If they wait until training camp they'll get less for him because by then the nature of the negotiations and Revis demands will be well known.
Br4d NO team is stupid enough to give us fair compensation for Revis in a trade, and then not sign him to an extension as part of the deal. His demands would be well known to any team trying to trade for him.
Sometimes posts on this site make Sports talk radio seem intelligent, even Mike's callers. This is one of them. Please, please, don't make this a valid argument. Its hard enough defending the Jets, I don't have the energy to defend fan stupidity.
Two things: 1. Revis is not the best defensive player in the league 2. Two first day picks would be two 1st and no "cb" is worth that.
1. If not then who? Name me the player that is so much better than the #2 player at his position, than Revis is over Nnamdi? 2. Which is why Revis is worth infinitely more to us than it would be to trade him.
It is not my fault it is the fault of 1-WJ, then MT, Then RR, Then the coaches RR picked, Then finally the players. If you analyze the team which you probably do not because if you did you would see we need a OL, PR, RB, WRs, LBers just to name a few moving parts & I have decided not to get into the MS discussion except to say that MS DOES NOT have the innate ability to make quick decisions & once he does finally make the decision he does not have the quick release & gun to get the ball to the receiver. Neither of those traits are coachable. If you next gambit is Tebow forget that as one just see what Belly did to him last years PO game & always remember we play the NEPs twice a year :sad:
First of all, there are only a handful of QB's in the NFL who have the ability to make a lightning-quick decision and throw. Eli Manning, as an example, is not one of them. Secondly, the trait is clearly coachable because Tom Brady was a mental sloth at Michigan when he could barely hold on to the starting job there. One of the reasons Brady slipped to the 6th round, aside from his poor footwork, lack of ability to escape in the pocket, subpar accuracy on deep throws and general all-around malaise when the Wolverines were down late, was his inability to make quick decisions and throws under pressure. The ability to make the kind of quick decision you are talking about comes from several factors, the most important being the scheme used. Why does Tom Brady get rid of the ball as quickly as he does now? Well one of the big reasons is the Patriots run an offense that is designed to make that happen. They spread things out and then they have two quick-hitter options available on almost every play. Same was true for Peyton Manning. What else is important? Experience in that scheme and overall. Tom Brady didn't come out of the gate throwing darts to his slot receiver and tight end. Peyton Manning was by far the better QB through 2004 when the mini-dynasty that was based on the Pats as a complete team ended. Manning also had 3+ extra years in the system that was designed for him. Other factors? The personnel. The Tom Brady that we all recognize today came into being in 2007 when Randy Moss and Wes Welker joined the Pats. Moss was a horrific deep threat that drew people away from the center of the field and Wes Welker was the opportunist that was always open in that situation. Now Brady has Welker and the two tight ends to cause defenses to double-clutch on coverages. Sanchez may not have the ability to make that quick decision and release right now but he hasn't had the same opportunities that Brady had early on or that Manning had when the Colts decided to hand him a 12 play playbook and tell him to make it up from there. Give Sanchez a prime Randy Moss and Wes Welker and things would likely be very different as the offense evolved. Give him a simple playbook to run in which he was the one calling plays and he'd likely become very proficient in running those plays, albeit not at the same level as Manning who is one of the greatest QB's of all time. On Tebow you are exactly right. Belichik is going to make the wildcat look completely futile before he is done. In 2008 the Dolphins ran all over the Pats in the first game they faced each other and won 38-13. Since then the results have been very different. If the wildcat was a viable NFL offense every team in the league would be trying to run it.
Well sorry to disagree with that ability is coachable. I am sure you have heard the statement you got it or you do not & MS is so far in that do not class. No difference probably from where you are employed some got it others do not :sad:
I'll bet you didn't think that way when he threw 3 TD's and beat the Pats in the playoffs in 2010. The problems last year were the result of a lot of factors, not least of which was Sanchez erratic play, however he was playing with no off-season to speak of and with 3 new WR's and a diva who squeaked every time somebody else got more targets than he did. He was also playing for a bunch of idiots in the management suite who decided that no off-season plus multiple new receivers plus subpar pass protection meant AIR IT OUT.
Well concerning the NYJ ownership, management & coaching NOTHING has changed since Hess in a fit of pique decided to throw Wberlin out of the 4 people partnership As for MS so long as the play goes exactly as diagrammed MS is a OK QB but when it has to think ............. well that is a whole other story sorry to say Last year I was at the Oakland game & I was saying do not throw the pass & even the Raiders announcers said to threw it away but no MS threw the ball D/field & U know he rest of that ugly story. Actually I think that play was the onset of MS downward spiral :sad:
