time for the yanks to put some distance on the sox.

Discussion in 'Baseball Forum' started by TommyJ, Aug 16, 2011.

  1. TommyJ

    TommyJ Well-Known Member

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    i know the next 14 of 17 games are on the road but it started with a win tonight in KC,(with AJ's first win in August as a yankee, god that sounds horrible for a zillion dollar an inning pitcher) plus two more in KC, then it's over to the Twins who they have basically owned for a while now, then Oakland and Baltimore. All of these teams are horribly under 500, Yanks need to fatten up on these teams before they go back to that phone booth they play in up in Boston. Phoneway Park is what i call it. god damn ban box.

    I think the yanks can go 11-4 on this road trip, maybe better, of course they could also tailspin, but i think they are going to hit full stride now,
    and Arod isn't too far away from being in the lineup at least. This is a very favorable schedule, c'mon boys!! 12-3? whatta ya say??!!! I say crush kill destroy! :wink:
    3 with KC, 4 with MINN, 3 at home with Oakland, and then 5 at Baltimore.
    12-3 , you can do it.
     
  2. Jake

    Jake Well-Known Member

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    I'd like the Yanks to take the division as well, simply because I hate the Red Sox with a burning passion and would like them to have as few "accolades" or "titles" as possible. In the grande scheme of things, though, both the Yanks and Sox are practically locks to make the playoffs barring a Mets-esque collapse. All that's on the line is home field now, and some here have argued that means fuck all. What I'd like to see is the Yanks win the next series against the Sox, and CC handle them.... I know this team can hang with them.
     
  3. Cellar-door

    Cellar-door Active Member

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    The Yanks need home field, they are 100 points better OPS at home and only 0.40 points of ERA worse, and have a lower WHIP at home. Add in that the teams they would play on the Road are texas and Boston who have by far the two best Home OPS in the league though both pitch much better on the road. (texas has the best road ERA in the majors.)
     
  4. Jake

    Jake Well-Known Member

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    I want home field, no question. What I meant by my comment was that every time it is brought up, there's a grocery list of reasons why it is irrelevant provided. It will show up here in due time.
     
  5. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    Just for the record, the argument (at least on my part) was never that it meant "fuck all." It's only that people tend to overvalue its worth in a short series.
     
  6. Brunell's Debt

    Brunell's Debt New Member

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    Agreed entirely, homefield is critical for the Yankees this year. I can buy that homefield is overrated in the grand scheme of things, but even if it's mainly psychological I have no interest in playing a game 7 at Fenway.

    Also, I agree with the OP that it would be great to see the Yankees go on a tear over the next few weeks. At the end of the day though, the division is going to the team that gets the upper hand in the many head to head matchups remaining between the Bombers and the Sox.
     
  7. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    How'd the last game 7 vs. the Sox at Yankee Stadium work out?
     
  8. Brunell's Debt

    Brunell's Debt New Member

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    Not so well, but homefield sure did help in '03 when we were able to get 3 innings out of Rivera instead of waiting for a save situation.

    I'm personally of the opinion that this Yankees club is championship caliber, and that we can beat anyone on any field on any day. But the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers are all appreciably better at their home parks, and I believe that homefield could end up being important.
     
  9. Cellar-door

    Cellar-door Active Member

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    I think winning the division is also important to avoid Texas, I would much rather play the central winner than Texas or Anaheim.
     
  10. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    This. Lots and lots of this.

    The key isn't even necessarily being better at home, it's that if you're a Yankees fan, you want Boston to hit the road and let them and Texas beat the shit out of each other. Sure, the Yankees have to face Verlander, but at least it would be at home, and again, the two teams better than Detroit would be playing each other, softening them up for hopefully coming to play in the Bronx.

    As with things like raw stats, homefield advantage has to be viewed beyond it's basic statistical significance. Factor in who has to be played and where depending on whether you get it or not, and it's not so cut-and-dried as it being less significant to the outcome statistically.
     
  11. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    Okay, so let's say Detroit passes Texas for the better record.

    Does your opinion change?



    And you're mangling the meaning of statistical significance. If something is insignificant, statistically, that doesn't mean it's automatically unimportant or that X and Y don't exist. It just means that the particular statistic you are using is not telling you anything with regard to the guidelines you have in place (in terms of what you are trying to predict)... the significance level is something that you can set.
     
  12. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    Yeah, it might just change. (Though I'd still probably rather it was the Sox on the road for the first series rather than us.)

    As for the rest, I'm not arguing one way or the other over statistical significance. All I'm saying is that wanting home field this year, just like last year, is for more than statistical significance. Namely, I don't want to play Texas on the road to start the playoffs. I also would rather the Sox had to travel to open the postseason and then come to us.
     
  13. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    So if your opinion changes, doesn't your previous, team-specific argument go out the window? And you're back to talking about just being on the road vs. being at home. And remember, we're not talking about a one-game difference here. It's not like they go on the road for seven games as opposed to being home for seven days.

    Right, and I want home field this year, too. I want it every year. My point was just that you seem to be misinterpreting the phrase "statistical significance." I think I know what you're trying to say -- you're referring to any statistical significance of HFA alone, all other things being equal -- but that's a specific measurement of a specific stat (general home/road splits). For all the other stuff, you can measure that, too, if you wanted.

    If I can put it another way... sometimes it seems like you go out of your way just to avoid the word "statistics" even when talking about things that are measured.
     
  14. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    Not really. My opinion only changes if we play Detroit at home, rather than Texas in Arlington, for two reasons:

    1) I want Boston and Texas to beat the crap out of each other. That only happens if we win the division. Otherwise, we hit the road to either Detroit or Texas (and I'm betting on Texas). That series weakens either club, and after it's over, we'll be the team with better record either way, so that winner comes here.

    2) I feel like we stand a better chance of beating Verlander with CC at home.

    I'm honestly not sure what you're getting at here. I'm not trying to avoid statistics here. I'm simply saying that the entire reason I want home field has nothing to do with any statistical measurements. Basically, this year, given the teams we stand to play (as was the case last year also), even if HFA gave teams a statistical 50% disadvantage (which is purposely hyperbolic, since that sort of disadvantage wouldn't make sense to root for) I'd want home field this year (as I did last year), because I feel that heading west is a big enough disadvantage to us.

    Hopefully that makes sense, even with the hyperbole.
     
  15. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    1. You're assuming that Boston and Texas would "beat the crap out of each other." Based on what? Why not Detroit and Boston beating the crap out of each other? Are you that much more confident that Texas is the better team, even if they switch places in the standings?

    2. Why? (I'm going to hold off on this for a bit, but I'll explain below.)

    I'm saying that you avoid the word statistics even when that's what you're doing in your head. Because - in the game of baseball - unless you're basing what you "want" purely on hopes and dreams with no basis in the reality of the game, there are going to be statistics that apply to your reasoning. And those statistics can be analyzed/compared.

    So going back to what I was saying above, why do you think CC has a better chance at home against Verlander? You'll probably go and look at home/road splits and use those statistics to say he's been better at home. Those are stats. Okay, so what? Well... by using those stats, what you'd be saying is that you think those stats are more important than the other stats. But once you do that, if you're going to take that route, you need to give it proper weight, and account for variance of small sample size, and determine how much impact those splits would have in a five-game series, etc.

    Sounds fun, right?

    I guess what I'm getting at is this: If it really is just a "gut feeling" and has absolutely nothing to do with the stats, fine. It's like believing in god. They call it faith for a reason, and it's great to have faith... but because it's faith, you can't "prove" it. There's no faith if it's proven. It's the same with the stats. If you don't want to use the stats, fine. But don't half-ass it. Not saying you're doing this here, but in general, you shouldn't get to pick and choose when these stats apply only up to the point where you feel comfortable with them. Because as soon as you start to try to explain what happens on a baseball field, there are going to be stats for it. And their predictive strength definitely depends on analyzing them properly.

    Okay, I'll try one last example: If I told you that you could have a machine that would increase your chances of winning at the roulette table by 3%, that'd be great! Over the long haul, you could make a lot of money with that (because your predictive ability at the table would put the odds slightly in your favor). But because it's only slightly in your favor, you'd be silly to put all of your chips on any one spin. There's too much variance. It's the same thing here. You have a lot of small advantages that could go one way or could go the other. Over the course of a long season, these things tend to average out... the statistical noise goes away... and we get a decent sense of a team's talent.

    In a five- or seven-game series, that pretty much goes out the window. CC has a stinker in game one like he's had the past few outings? Uh-oh. There goes the strategy. Or maybe he's dominant and things are cool. But in a short series, anything can happen, and some of these "advantages" are only going to be realized over the long haul. They'll be eclipsed by variance in the short term. So when we talk about these relatively small advantages in a short series, they're not likely to have much predictive ability (i.e. they're not going to be statistically significant), and - while they might make you feel better, which is nice - the outcome of the series is not likely to be decided by one of the things that has been discussed here.
     
    #15 Cappy, Aug 16, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2011
  16. Brunell's Debt

    Brunell's Debt New Member

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    I absolutely agree with this, and I really don't want to play LAAAAAAA on the road in the first round. Weaver-Haren-Santana is scary in a 5 game series.
     
  17. TommyJ

    TommyJ Well-Known Member

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    Fuck the Angels, I live out here, the Yanks have excorcised their Angel demons long ago.
    Bring 'em on, bring any of them on , fuck it , texas,boston, home, away,they're a half game in first now, way to slug your way to a win when your pitcher gets pasted tonight!!
    Robinson Cano is unreal. Fouled off 8 pitches i think before his homerun tonight.
    he's finally over 300 now, and jeter is hitting the balll well again, it's great to see.
     
  18. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    Cappy, I'm going to be honest, I didn't even attempt to read all of that. As far as what I did read, yes, I believe that Texas and LA are stronger than Detroit, regardless of final records. Yes, I feel like Boston is probably the best team in baseball. Yes, I believe that Texas and Boston will beat the shit out of each other and we can beat Detroit, especially at home.

    Exactly.

    It has nothing to do with demons. It has to do with a very potent pitching staff.

    Cano fouled off 7, but yes, that was an amazing at-bat. I'm going to be disappointed when ARod (who I still adore) comes back and is automatically given back his cleanup spot in the lineup. I would love to see them slot him in behind Cano.
     
  19. Cappy

    Cappy Well-Known Member

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    Okay, here's the short version: Unless you're just going on fuzzy warm feelings in your tummy to make a decision on which team is better, you're very likely using statistics at some level. And if you're going to do that, you should at least account for them properly.

    In a short series, any of the advantages you're talking about here are likely very small and would be eclipsed by noise (variance) inherent in a smallish number of games. (That right there is pretty much the definition of statistical insignificance.)

    It's why teams like the Mariners can win three game series against a team like Boston. It's why they say the playoffs are (more or less) a crap shoot.
     
  20. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    Well, then the answer is: I'm not using any statistics at all. It's all feelings. Hence the repetition of "I feel/believe" in front of everything I just wrote. I feel the Yankees can beat Detroit far easier than either Texas or Boston (I don't see the Angels making the postseason). I think that after Texas and Boston face off, they'll have a much more empty tank than the Yankees, giving the Yankees an edge in the CS.
     

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