Best bet of week

Discussion in 'Crystal Ball' started by Yisman, Sep 12, 2010.

  1. jets_fan_in_fishtown

    jets_fan_in_fishtown Active Member

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    anyone bet NBA?

    Been doing pretty decent this season. couldn't believe the line on the utah and orlando game tonight. it was +600 utah on moneyline, and +11.5 on the spread. i put $100 on moneyline, won $600. thought i was dead in the water near the end of the third, but they stormed back like they did in miami. miami and orlando have had ridiculous spreads at home, even against good teams. had some success betting against them this year

    gotta go with the ravens tomorrow.....Roddy white barely practiced today and is a game time decision. if he plays, he'll be banged up and shut down by the ravens secondary.

    the falcons are overrated anyways. the two legit teams (steelers minus ben, eagles) they've played, they lost to. And they stole the saints game because their kicker couldn't hit a chip shot.
     
  2. Green N' Gold

    Green N' Gold New Member

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    I'm leaning toward the Ravens myself. They have the better defense and the White injury that you mentioned is big. I think the Ravens come out throwing and attack the Falcons secondary, their weak spot. Should be a good game.
     
  3. JetDan

    JetDan Well-Known Member

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    NBA is very hard anything can really happen but you can say that about any sport. good pick with the jazz great comeback they had.
     
    #283 JetDan, Nov 11, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2010
  4. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    should've posted this earlier in the week, but I never got around to looking at Millman's blog until today

    http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/blog?name=millman_chad&id=5780138




    I have a new term that I'd like the NFL and its broadcasters to introduce, as I have at my house on Sundays and Mondays.



    The yellow zone.

    Here's when it should be used: during the final two minutes of an NFL game when the team with the ball is trailing, the game (and usually the spread) is on the line, it's third or fourth down and, finally, it's the team's last chance.

    Because that's when the yellow flags start to fly. And it's become unbearable to watch.

    Let me give you some examples from Sunday. The Oakland Raiders, trailing the Kansas City Chiefs by three points, are facing third-and-3 from their own 43 with 61 seconds left. Jason Campbell scrambles and floats one to Brandon Myers, who drops the ball. Fourth down, right? Afraid not. Flag on the play. Pass interference. Even on the replay, the announcer asked "Was there really interference on that play?" The Raiders go on to tie the game with a last-second field goal. They win -- and cover -- in overtime.

    Or how about the call that broke a million hearts and nearly brought down my Twitter account: Trent Cole being flagged for roughing the passer on Peyton Manning. The Indianapolis Colts faced a fourth-and-18 late in the fourth quarter. As Manning dropped back, the Philadelphia Eagles blitzed and Cole, while trying to swipe the ball, brushed the back of Manning's helmet. Manning fumbled the ball on the play, which should have iced the game and given Philly a nine-point win, easily covering. Instead, Manning got a new set of downs and the Eagles were too spent to stop them from scoring. Philly still won, but the Colts covered.

    Every close game this season seems fraught with added tension, as fans not only have to contend with how their teams will perform in the final minutes of a game, but how the refs will change the outcome. I haven't had time to do a scientific study since last night, but anecdotally, it seems that the laundry officials are leaving on the field is impacting games and spreads more than ever before.

    "That Colts-Eagles game saw some amazing stuff," says the Hilton's Jeff Sherman. "That Austin Collie hit was legal as can be. And the touch foul on Peyton, too? It seems like it's getting excessive and thus having an effect."

    Of the Vegas guys I polled last night -- who have been in the business for a combined 60 years -- the consensus was the same. Bob Scucci at the Orleans said it. So did Jay Rood at the Mirage. Refs are changing games, not just officiating them.

    "The new rules are impacting scores and sending a lot of games past the over," Scucci says. "Players must be cautious how they hit and tackle, which causes them to not hit and miss tackles. Or the flipside: The refs are so sensitive that the slightest touches get called. The fourth-and-18 play in the Colts-Eagles game cost us the day."



    All around the sports book world, Sunday was rough, as the books I spoke to either barely squeaked out a win or took a small loss. The underdogs were only 6-5-1 on the day, and when the differential is that small, it usually means money was paid out. The San Diego Chargers finally scored a big win when bettors were playing them. The New York Giants, already favorites heading into the game, beat up on the Seattle Seahawks second-stringer Charlie Whitehurst, which meant bettors beat up on the books. The New Orleans Saints did their job. And for much of the public, the Colts did theirs. Or rather, the refs did it for them.

    When I watch a game and a team enters the yellow zone I cringe when players start celebrating immediately after a great moment. Don't they know a flag is about to fly? Why are they jinxing it? As soon as a play is over I actually look to the scorebox on the top of my screen and hold my breath for five seconds, waiting to see if the "flag" tag in the yellow box appears. It's actually excruciating.

    In fact, from now on, when a team is in the scenario I described above, networks should just put a little yellow arrow next to the team's name in the scorebox -- like they do when teams are inside the red zone. Because that's when it will have entered the yellow zone, a place where the world spins sideways, where hopes are dashed, dreams are saved and time stops. Literally.

    Do do, do do, do do, do do. (That's the "Twilight Zone" theme, youngsters.)
     
  5. BuffaloPhysco

    BuffaloPhysco Member

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    Made a few parlays before the game last night. Definitely love my super teaser even though it don't pay much but it will cover my bets this week. The Ravens covered on both tickets i had them on, good start to the week so far! Gonna make a few more tonight. Anybody got any guarentee's this week? besides this 5 teamer im going to put $20 on...

    Titans -0.5 @ Dolphins
    Texans +2.5 @ Jaguars
    Vikings -0.5 @ Bears
    Chiefs -1.5 @ Broncos
    Steelers -4.5 vrs Pats

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    Nothing against any of the picks except the Vikings. I don't have confidence in them.
     
  7. BuffaloPhysco

    BuffaloPhysco Member

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    Neither do i really. But that defense finally showed some plays last week and started getting pressure. All they have to do is win and the Bears are crap right now. Sidney Rice may play this week as well if they mae room for him on the 53 man roster.
     
  8. jets_fan_in_fishtown

    jets_fan_in_fishtown Active Member

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    Decent picks. I think the bears win though. I took them on a 7 point teaser.

    Favre will be picked two or three times by the bears D.


    Took the jets -3, eagles -3, and rams moneyline on straight wagers.

    7 point teaser
    -texans +8.5
    -ravens +8
    -rams +13
    -jets +4
    -titans +6
    -bears +8
    -eagles +4
    -giants -7


    10 point teaser
    +7 eagles
    -4 giants
    +7 jets

    Other 10 point teaser
    Rams +16
    titans +9
    jets +7

    parlay on
    -3 jets
    +6 rams
    -1 titans
     
    #288 jets_fan_in_fishtown, Nov 12, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2010
  9. JetDan

    JetDan Well-Known Member

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    no complaints about anything but the titans, i have a feeling the dolphins are finally going to get a home win
     
  10. jets_fan_in_fishtown

    jets_fan_in_fishtown Active Member

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    well, as long as they don't win by more than 5 or 6 :)

    i think the titans will keep noodlearm contained though.
     
  11. JetDan

    JetDan Well-Known Member

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    hahahah they have a great defense might of been my best fantasy pick
    goodluck!
     
  12. BuffaloPhysco

    BuffaloPhysco Member

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    I have the Rams and Titans on my $70 regular parlay as well. Have the Texans as my 3rd team though. Good Luck on those teasers. Betting against the Browns on teasers is what has screwed me the past 2 weeks!
     
  13. jets_fan_in_fishtown

    jets_fan_in_fishtown Active Member

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    I bet on Cleveland the last couple of weeks but I doubt they'll pull off a 3rd win. if the browns pull it off I only think it'll be 3 points. But like I said, jets should take this game
     
  14. BuffaloPhysco

    BuffaloPhysco Member

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    I never thought last week they would beat the Pats right after beating the Saints the week before. Until further notice Peyton Hillis is a BEAST and Colt Mccoy is playing some decent football with hardly any weapons around hm. That and the Jets offense has looked ugly the past 2 weeks from what Iv'e seen. I didn't even touch that game on my few meaningless 10 game parlays.
     
  15. jets_fan_in_fishtown

    jets_fan_in_fishtown Active Member

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    he's a beast but he's shredded teams that can't stop the run.

    Rod woodson made a great point today on NFL network about how the browns struggle with teams that have similar makeup (can run the ball, stop the run and play good defense). mainly pittsburgh and the ravens (although they had the lead in that ravens game going into the 4th)

    If they can stop AP and ray rice, they can definitely stop peyton hillis.


    If the jets can start fast (I think they should go no huddle/hurry up on their opening drive), the browns will be in trouble because colt will have to throw more.
     
    #295 jets_fan_in_fishtown, Nov 12, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2010
  16. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    I'm liking the titans
     
  17. wewantsapp

    wewantsapp Well-Known Member

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    Cincinnati +7
    Houston +1.5
    NY Jets -3
     
  18. talisaynon

    talisaynon Well-Known Member

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    Yis, you still like the titans/
     
  19. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    even with Collins, yeah

    but no best bet for me this week

    the ones I'm looking at are Tennessee ML, Houston ML, and houston/jax under

    collins being in caused a 2 point line move, roughly, but they were points around 0, which have minimal value. ML would be the better way to go.
     
  20. WhiteShoeWillis

    WhiteShoeWillis Well-Known Member

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    I used to like the Titans until I saw Pennington dancing like a wigger at practice. Now I'm scared.
     

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