Its probable that there are 5 or 6 defenses better than the jets ?!?! I mean if you said could be possible that's one thing, but I guarentee the jets are top 3 easily, with prob far more turnovers this year than last. And the pass defense is EASILY better this year as well
People are very uncomfortable with the idea of regression to the mean, and no one (including you) has mentioned it in any of the posts since this one, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored. Taking a look at the 26 seasons from 1983 through 2008 (1982 complicates things because only 9 games were played), the team that led the league in scoring defense gave up an average of 85 more points the following year. This is exactly what would be expected, since it is almost always the case that extreme results (either good or bad) include some luck to go along with the skill, and that luck (by definition) doesn't happen again the next year. This isn't a guarantee - twice the team that led the league in scoring defense gave up fewer points the following year (1985 to 1986 Bears and 1991 to 1992 Saints), and led the league again - but it's the way to bet. Further, those two times the improvement was very small (11 and 9 points, respectively), so to expect the Jets defense to give up something like 50 fewer points (which is what would be required to even be considered potentially the best ever) would be completely unprecedented. The most likely occurrence is that the Jets will give up at least 50 more points this year than last year, and won't even lead the league in scoring defense, let alone be record breakers. If they do manage to lead the league again (even without giving up fewer than 200 points) it would be a tremendous accomplishment, but counting on it would be a big mistake. That's why improvement of the offense is so important, since I believe that the only way this team becomes elite is if it scores at least 75-100 more points than it did last year (ultimately it's point differential that matters). Edit: I see in your most recent post you did at least tangentially refer to regression to the mean again when you said that the most likely result is that the Jets drop 5 or 6 places in the rankings. A cursory look at history shows that this is absolutely correct - the median position the next year for the team that led the league in scoring defense is 9th or 10th, so if the Jets dopped down to 5th or 6th they would actually be doing better than what typically happens.
It's all about potential at this point. The results will speak for themselves. The D-line has the potential to be very good, especially if Big Jenk can last all season. The linebacking corp has the potential to be great - two pro-bowlers maybe three. The secondary has the potential to be named. And remembered. Forever.
As for my earlier comments on Kerry Rhodes which people seem to be ripping, let me say that I think there was a reason that Rex stuck with him in the starting line-up. They had nothing else, and they don't heading into this season either. Rhodes is a good player who had a bad first half of the season. I know that; I watched NFL football last season. But he came on after Ryan called him out, as mentioned, and played well in the Post Season. I'm going to stand by what I think on Cromartie. To me he is going to struggle big time against the shiftier receivers of the AFC East as he is awful in short/intermediate coverage. He's also not a willing tackler and not focused on football right now, (and how can he be?). IMO, he's the most over-rated CB in the NFL who had a good rookie season and that's it. He has been terrible the last 2 seasons and I don't see that changing in a much better division. I'm not saying this because he's a Jet. I said it when he was back in SD, and I was begging Miami not to make a move for him when some rumors came out that he was on the block. Again, I think Wilson is opposite Revis sooner rather than later this season and you guys will be deeply disappointed in Cromartie's play.
You have an obvious outsider's understanding of the Rhodes situation. Rhodes didn't really 'come on' so much at the second half of the season, he decided to start listening to his position coach at the risk of his starting position. Your head coach should not have to bench you to get you to speak with your position coach. You have no idea what Cromartie is focused on. That's just an assumption and wishful thinking on your part. Cromartie lacked focus and did not put his body on the line, that is the truth. But the exact issues Cro had in 2009, Kerry Rhodes had in 2009. For you to tell us how much Rhodes will be missed and in the same breath tell us how terrible Cromartie is... that's asinine. I happen to think that both players are going to benefit from a new situation, and I think the fact that Cromartie is in a contract year does noty hurt. The Jets took a lot of low-risk/high-reward opportunities for 2010. To criticize an approach like that, well, it's retarded.
The potential is absolutely there for something historic. The players are in place, the coach is in place, etc-etc. I think Cromartie will be a different guy in NY... he must hear the criticisms, and my bet is that he really makes an effort to reverse perceptions that he's soft. No football player wants to be thought of that way, not even punters and kickers. The NFL makes it easier for offenses these days, so while I expect the Jets' D to be stellar, I think the team's overall success next year will have a lot more to do with Sanchez and the offense. Good defense is practically a given at this point... most of the questions I would have are on the other side of the ball.
I wasn't aware that Rhodes was also broke and needed a salary advance because of the child support he had to pay for the, what(?), 8 kids with 7 different women...and now getting married? Point is that Rhodes is a good player and you guys did not have a replacement, or he would have benched permanently. Why would Cromartie not be focused at all last year, but all of a sudden be 100% into football and put his body on the line on every down this year? Because he's playing for Rex Ryan? Please.
Well no offense but I'll trust Rex's judgement about what Cro can cover over yours. If he couldn't play man he wouldn't be here. San Diego's scheme would make Revis look average. And in all seriousness, did I really read in the other thread that he won't be able to cover Camarillo? As in Greg Camarillo? The guy with 113 catches in 3 years? That guy or does he have a brother I don't know about? Cro's going against Santonio Holmes in practice every single day. Now I realize he's no Greg Camarillo, but if he can cover him I think he'll be fine.
You might be right on the dropoff likely being steeper than 5 or 6 places. The Jets were not a particularly dominant defense last year except against the pass. They also weren't at all dominant in terms of points allowed, with the 236 points they allowed being 11 more than the average leading defense allowed from 2002 to 2008 (the period for which ESPN keeps easily checkable team defensive numbers.) On the flip side the Jets get Kris Jenkins back to firm up the run defense and the passing defense should still be topflight, so maybe they can avoid a fall back to earth all together. Also, if you believe as I do that the coaching was the biggest part of the improvement from 2008 to 2009, then it becomes easier to see Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine fine-tuning what they want to do and helping the Jets defense maintain its excellent play. Losing Rex Ryan would be a much bigger blow to the Jets defense than losing any single player, including Darrelle Revis.
If you want to question a players character by their off field actions... http://www.signonsandiego.com/nfl/arrests-database/?appSession=533251100289936 Code: DateDescending Name Team Position Incident Resolution [B]5/26/2010 Phillip Merling Miami DE Arrested, charged with aggravated battery on pregnant girlfriend.[/B] [B]3/19/2010 Ronnie Brown Miami RB Arrested on suspicion of DUI near Atlanta after being pulled over for changing lanes without signaling. Blood-alcohol content of .158.[/B] [B]2/20/2010 Will Allen Miami CB Arrested, charged with DUI about 3:30 a.m. in Miami Beach. Breath tests showed blood-alcohol content at .152 and .167. [/B] [B]2/6/2010 Tony McDaniel Miami DT Arrested on misdemeanor battery charge after allegedly getting into fight with his girlfriend. [/B] [B]10/5/2009 Will Billingsley Miami CB Arrested, charged with misdemeanor domestic battery and resisting arrest after scratches found on girlfriend's arm and neck.[/B] [B]5/24/2009 Randy Starks Miami DE Arrested, charged with aggravated battery of a police officer in Miami Beach. Reduced to misdemeanor traffic violation, $219 fine, eight hours in traffic classes.[/B] 4/11/2008 Reagan Mauia Miami FB Charged with punching man in the face and knocking him out in a restaurant parking lot in Florida. 2/1/2008 Matt Roth Miami DE Arrested on public intoxication charge stemming from incident at bar in Iowa City, Iowa. Pleaded guilty, $182 fine. 7/14/2007 Chris Chambers Miami WR Arrested, charged with driving while impaired, reckless driving and speeding in North Carolina. Reached plea deal to have charge changed to speeding. His B.A.C. was .06 percent, under the legal limit of .08. 7/3/2007 Kelly Campbell Miami WR Arrested, charged with felony possession of marijuana and Ecstasy in Atlanta. Released by team two days later. 6/24/2007 Fred Evans Miami DL Arrested in Miami, charged with battery on a police officer, disorderly conduct, resisting arrest and trespassing. Police used taser guns on him after he allegedly refused to get out of a taxi. He was on probation in Texas after February 2007 arrest for marijuana possession. Waived by team four days later. Pleaded no contest to resisting arrest and battery on officer, two years of withheld adjudication, $1,310 fine. NFL suspended him two games. 3/18/2007 Joey Porter Miami LB Misdemeanor battery charge at Las Vegas casino vs. Levi Jones Pleaded no contest, $1,000 fine. NFL fined him three game checks ($141,176). 2/10/2007 Fred Evans Miami DL Arrested on charge of marijuana possession in Colorado County, Texas. Pleaded no contest, $250 fine, one year deferred adjudication. Subsequent arrest led to summons for Sept. 5 court date. 5/16/2006 Keith Traylor Miami DT Arrested, charged with driving under the influence in Oklahoma One year probation 2/15/2006 Damion McIntosh Miami OT Arrested on a charge of domestic violence. He allegedly knocked his wife to the floor at their Davie, Fla., home. Dropped 7/10/2005 Randy McMichael Miami TE Charged with simple battery and criminal trespass in Grovetown, Ga., stemming from an apparent domestic dispute. Pleaded guilty to criminal trespass, 90 days probation, fined one game check 6/23/2005 Quintin Williams Miami S_ Arrested on DUI and drag-racing charges. He was clocked driving 111 mph near the Dolphins practice facility, according to the Florida Highway Patrol. Cut from team a day later, pleaded to reckless driving, six months probation 10/19/2004 David Boston Miami WR Arrested, charged with simple assault for allegedly striking a gate agent when the attendant would not allow Boston to board a late-night flight at Vermont airport. Pleaded no contest, $500 fine, $211 restitution 6/29/2004 Randy McMichael Miami TE Arrested in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., for allegedly hitting his pregnant wife. His wife also was arrested on a domestic battery charge. Dropped 7/18/2002 Derrick Rodgers Miami LB Arrested for aggravated battery, simple battery and resisting arrest with violence after an altercation at a South Beach restaurant. Pleaded no contest to felonies and misdemeanors, 100 hours community service, suspended one game 6/18/2002 Ricky Williams Miami RB Williams (Patrick Henry High) was stopped and handcuffed by police while they searched his Hummer in Fort Lauderdale. He was ticketed for having expired tags, no driver's license and no proof of insurance. 2/24/2002 Ricky Williams Miami RB Arrested for speeding after being clocked driving 126 mph in Crowley, La. Bench warrant later issued for failure to appear in court Paid $500 fine 7/4/2001 Ben Kelly Miami CB Charged with driving under the influence of alcohol after striking a parked Miami-Dade police car along a state highway. Acquitted 3/3/2001 Jermaine Haley Miami DT Charged with drunken driving after an accident in Miami Beach in March. Pleaded no contest, 50 hours community service, $500 7/18/2000 Patrick Surtain Miami CB Arrested in Miami and charged with speeding and drunken driving. Pleaded no contest to reckless driving, $25,000 to MADD
I'm not sure whose point you're trying to support with the benched permanently comment. I agree that if the Jets had a suitable replacement, Rhodes would have been benched for the remainder of the season. And that's why he's not a huge loss. I never said Cro was going to put his body on the line all year. He's not going to turn into 2007 Cro. That's fine. I'm not all hot and bothered about the Cromartie trade, to be honest. But he is an easy upgrade over Sheppard and Lowery, who were handling #2 duties in 2009. And in 2009, quarterbacks throwing Cromartie's direction had a 70.9 QB rating. QBs targeting Vontae Davis' man had a 104.9 QB rating. QBs targeting Sean Smith's man had a 116.1 QB rating. I think I will take my chances with the headcase.
Don't jump the gun here, they haven't even had a preseason game yet. Of course it's possible, anything is possible. Let's have this discussion after the bye week.
Who's jumping the gun? All we're doing is asking wether or not we'll have the greatest defense in the history of western civilization. It's not like we're saying we can cover Greg Camarillo or anything...
Cromartie's case and those cases are way different. I'm not saying Cromartie is a bad player because he's a bad off-the-field person. I'm saying his off the field issues have significantly drawn away his attention from football.
