Yeah, I see that same thing. It parallels how so many Jets fans desperately want the Giants to lose. Personally, I don't give a damn about the Mets or Giants. If they win, that's cool, go NY! If they lose, I ignore them. The only teams I actively root against call Massachusetts and Pennsylvania home. Oh, and a certain team in Miami.
I admit to laughing a bit at Mets fans late last year but that was because they were just being insufferable.
This may get Joba/Hughes innings, but it will hamper their development. They've already proven that they can get big league hitters out, they need to be facing fair competition. A lot of Mets fans have a pathetic inferiority complex with the Yankees. I get it--few things make me happier than seeing the Red Sox implode--but I wish that they could become obsessed with a team that reciprocates their hate. I actually rooted for the Mets when Willie Randolph was running the show (I always did love Willie.)
I think that's actually part of the point. Both guys are in the Yankees' plans to be starters for this team, probably even both next year. The problem is, there's only one available spot in the rotation. So sending one down (more likely Hughes since he needs more stretching out) makes sense in preparation for next year. If you keep both with the pro club then you only get one of them for half or so of the innings you need out of him next year. Hughes only pitched 86 innings during the '09 season. We'd be playing the same game with him that we did Joba last year all over again.
Keeping Hughes' innings down will also hamper his development. It's not even like it needs to be for the entire year... last year, Hughes' first relief appearance was on June 8th. Let him start regularly in AAA for the first half of the year (or so). If someone else goes down with the big league club, you'll have a much better replacement than the next guy in line. And if the bullpen turns out to be atrocious for whatever reason, you'll still have Hughes (or Joba) as an option at that point. Your conclusion is correct, but Hughes actually threw an additional 19 1/3 innings in AAA last year, and another 6 1/3, for a grant total of 111 2/3 innings last season. So it's not quite as bad. Plus he has experienced more of a workload in his career... it's just that it was back in 2006.
Yeah, I actually should have wrote that more clearly. I knew he threw in the minors, plus he had innings in the postseason. I know he's had more length in the past, but it's hard to jump from ~110 to 200+ over the course of a year, even with the history of having pitched that length. We're talking about asking for double the workload. I know when I get double the workload at my job I don't handle it well, and I don't do anything physical. I don't "like" sending down Hughes, but I'd rather send him down and wind up with Huhges and Joba both at their potential as starters than waste either of them in the pen. Though I'm still on the fence on whether Joba is going to truly be an effective starter over his career. I obviously hope so, but I'm still cautious about getting my hopes up.
Oh, I agree... that's why I said your conclusion was correct. Assuming they're willing to give Hughes 150-160 innings or so, if they try to use him as the #5 starter, it'll be the same problem that they had with Joba last year. But if they start him in AAA, even if it's just for a part of the season, he should be able to increase his innings workload so they don't run into the problem next year. It also seems dumb to stick Joba in the pen after doing all that work the past two years to (over)manage his innings.
That's the only part that has me thinking maybe he should start. I think in the longrun his role is in the bullpen but part of me would be pissed they didn't decide/realize this sooner. Either way you know it's an uneventful Spring Training when the two biggest stories are your 5th starter and the Jeter contract situation.
Well, you don't throw good money after bad... if they don't think he can start, they should make that decision now. But they obviously think he can. (As do I, of course.) To me, it all hinges on his fastball. If he's got his old fastball back, there's absolutely no way he shouldn't start. That's the Joba who posted the lowest ERA of any Yankee starter in his first 11 starts (2.23). If he's got a middling fastball again, I don't mind moving him to the pen as much... even though I still think he could be a successful starter with his secondary pitches. Although if the pen is his destination, I'd rather just trade him, to be honest.
If they really thought both Hughes and Chamberlain were starters they wouldn't have gone after Vazquez. It's not like they haven't both been up long enough to have earned a job if they were ever going to do it.
AJ is due for a long term injury stint this season. I predict he won't even make it out of May, so I think we'll have Hughes starting sooner than we all think.
That's not really true. You always hedge your bets, and it's not like Hughes is capable of pitching a full season anyhow. Besides, Don, isn't Cashman a fool? Maybe he just didn't realize how many pitchers he had.
pretty much everything I've read seems to have Hughes pegged for a max of 170 innings or so this year
I think this is where we really disconnect on the topic. Granted, we agree that Joba has far higher value as a starter, if he can pitch to his potential over 6+ innings every 5 days. My question isn't "Can Joba throw his elite fastball?" My question is "Can Joba consistently throw his elite fastball for 6 innings in a row?" I'm certain he can throw his best stuff for an inning 5-6 times a week. I'm just not convinced he can do all those innings on the same night. I think if he can't start he's very valuable as the setup man and eventual Mariano heir. He's definitely more valuable as a starter if he can do it, but I wouldn't consider trading him if he proves he can't start.
See, this is what I don't understand about the disconnect... We already saw him do it consistently, in 2008. For about a third of a season's worth of starts, he was a very effective starter, with an ERA well under three, and he maintained his velocity into the sixth and seventh innings. I know I've linked to this before, but here is his pitch chart for the 7/25/08 start against Boston. Look at his velocity in the seventh inning: Link His last fastball was clocked at 99.6mph, and he was hitting 97-98 in the sixth. His average fastball for that game was 95.5. Then he hurt his shoulder, and possibly (probably) had his mechanics changed. The inconsistency we saw in his results (both as starter and reliever) started exactly when he hurt his shoulder and lost that fastball. They are directly related. If he's throwing 97 as a starter (or 99-100 as a reliever), he can get away with mistakes, he gets more swings and misses, and his secondary pitches are more effective. Without that, he can still be good, even very good... but he needs better command than what we saw from him last year. And if I had to bet, the lack of command we saw from him last year is ALSO connected to the diminished fastball. He was challenging hitters in 2007-2008 because he could blow it by them, and nibbling in 2009 because if he threw a fastball over the plate, it was getting wrecked. I would, and I think you'll see why this year if he doesn't have his fastball back and goes to the pen. But really, my point is just that you'd probably get a better return if you traded Joba as a young, potentially front-line starter and then tried to find a solid reliever in house (not that hard to do) than any value you'd get out of Joba in the pen, regardless of role.
I see your point, but I'm not confident that the Joba who threw like that will return. If he does, great. If not, I'd rather he just come out of the pen late to throw 10-15 fireballs every night.
Hey, I'm not sure that Joba is going to return, either. (I do think it's too soon to write him off though.) That's what I've been saying all along... it depends on his fastball. Because if he's throwing like he did last year, he's not even good for the 10-15 fireballs out of the pen. ETA: And besides, not being sure whether the fastball comes back (a seemingly valid concern) is very different from the argument we typically hear about how he doesn't have the mental makeup, can't maintain his velocity, etc. That's just bullshit. We've all seen him do it already. And my point is - if the injury (or the change in mechanics after the injury) is what led to the diminished fastball - then you (the royal you) shouldn't be all gung-ho for having Joba in the pen. Because he's not going to be that "old Joba" out of the pen, either.
I definitely agree with you. As I've said, best-case scenario is that both Joba and Hughes reach their potential as starters. They both have Opening Day potential, so if both hit, we have two #1s in our rotation even if CC leaves. His mental makeup consists of "I want to get every single batter I face out" which is just fine by me. The idea that he can't maintain his velocity isn't necessarily the fault of those who believe it (I'm not necessarily one of them.) The problem stems from what he's done on the mound. He's hesitant early in the game, as though he's "saving something" for later. I think he would quiet all the critics if he'd go out there and throw fireballs for the first 3 innings, then get fancy as he wears on in the game. If he can maintain velocity over 6+ innings every 5 days, there's no question I want Joba to be a starter. Again though, if he can only throw ridiculous gas and killer sliders for 20 pitches in a night, but can do it 4-5 times a week, I'll take a Joba that's being groomed to take the mantle from Rivera. ------------ As for Edwar, I was a bit disappointed to hear about that. I'd have rather dumped Albaladejo, but this isn't a huge deal either way. Park is going to make a bigger impact than either of those guys. I thought it was actually amusing that yesterday Cashman said that if we need to make a trade along the line this year it's going to have to come from our pitching, since that's where all of our depth is. When was the last time the Yankees could say that? ------------ This season can't start soon enough. Let's PLAY BALL!
