Before I'm going to buy any of this you need to explain to me clearly and succinctly why the Chargers will become the first team this season to score more than 1 TD against the Jets in the passing game and, assuming they can't do this, how they're going to put up enough points to beat the Jets on Sunday. It's easy to say that the Chargers are a great offense, and that therefore they will automatically score points against the Jets defense. The problem is that the offenses that ranked higher than the Chargers this year were just not able to do that unless the Jets gave them consistently great field position, and even then they didn't score very many points. The secret of how to score points against the Jets this year was threefold: get a turnover out of the rookie QB and capitalize (something that never happened when the Jets were actually guarding his access to risky downfield throws), get a special teams TD off of a breakdown (really only in the Miami game but twice then) and very occasionally put together a long drive on the ground. I would postulate that the Jets will have handcuffs on Sanchez all game long to prevent the first source of potential Charger points, and that they will be able to do this because the Chargers will not be able to shut down the Jets ground game - Sanchez has another 15 throw day coming. That the special teams breakdown may happen or not but I think it's more likely not. And that the Chargers couldn't put together a long drive on the ground if they were playing the Jets kids instead of the Jets. So I don't see the Chargers scoring enough points to win this game. The Jets shut down Drew Brees, Matt Schaub and Tom Brady this year. They gave up yards to Brady in a second game and to Peyton Manning but they didn't give up a lot of points in the air. The Chargers are going to have to come out running successfully on Sunday to have a shot at beating the Jets.
Once again, it's a catch-22 of sorts. You think the Jets will be able to stop the passing attack because of what they did to aforementioned teams. Yet, I think the Bolts will be able to pass because no one has stopped them all year. All of your potential success, as described in your post, is predicated on limiting Sanchez as much as possible. Do you think you can simply run all day on us? Do you think there will never be third downs, or holding penalties, etc.? Even Trent Dilfer on that stacked defense, running offense of the Ravens awhile back had to throw in pressure situations, and Sanchez is not even close to a Dilfer yet. (In addition, that D was one of the best of all time). The diversity of our offense allows us to adapt and change in-game. You stop the deep stuff, we go short with Sproles and Gates. We can and have run the ball, especially in key late-game situations. We just choose to throw more than run. Your offense has no diversity. If the run is stopped, you guys are cooked.
Here's the deal: the Chargers have not faced a pass defense that's even in the same category as the Jets all year long. The 2009 Jets are one of the half dozen best pass defenses of all time. Note I'm not saying a historically great defense, I'm saying a historically great defense against the pass - world of difference there. The Jets on the other hand HAVE faced some great passing offenses this year and really with the exception of the second New England game they shut them down. You can argue that Peyton would have scored a few TD's in the second half if he played the whole thing but this would ignore the fact that he only scored two, both on the ground, in the two-thirds of the game he played. The secret to beating the Jets this year, even after getting a turnover, is to be able to move the ball effectively on the ground. If you can't do this you can't beat the Jets. Yes I do believe the Jets can run all day on the Chargers. The Jets have been fairly good at limiting penalties. The Jets have also been pretty good on 3rd down, although I think your question was more about whether Sanchez would be forced into passing situations based on down and distance and the answer to that - based on last week's game is no. The Jets often sat on the ball on 3rd down and punted when they had too, even though they had their place-kicker punting. This is going to happen this week too. The Jets know that Sanchez is worth as many or more points to your offense on the day as Rivers is and they're going to sit on him and not let that happen. Sanchez is not incapable of throwing the ball in a pressure situation, he's just not a good risk. This means the Jets will be very careful about when they let him throw. As an FYI he completed his first 8 passes on 3rd down against the Texans at the beginning of the year, so he's clearly capable of going on a run, if unreliable enough that the Jets won't ask him to do that unless there's no other choice. The way the Chargers win this game is just to keep scoring TD's. There's no question that the Jets will break if the Chargers somehow manage to light up the NFL's best defense. I just don't see it happening.
I understand your points and I can't argue with your pass D ranking, although "historic" is quite controversial. There are 7 other teams, and probably should have been 8 if the Colts hadn't yanked their starters, that have solved this team. None have been as good as the Bolts. Our pass offense has been "historic" as well, with every team knowing that we "can't run" and still not even coming close to stopping us. Our YPA is one of the highest of the last decade. One thing that is clear from both of our responses: should be an epic battle between offense and defense in the air.
I know it's controversial. I've been on record as saying that I don't think this team is an all-time great defense in the same category as the '85 Bears and the '00 Ravens. I still believe that is true. Against the pass though I think it's every bit that good. Just an opinion based on only one slot receiver having a breakout game against us all year and no QB's really lighting us up. It's hard to see this unless you watched the Jets all year, but really nobody solved the Jets this year except Miami in the first game and New England in the second. All the other losses were real, but they were the Jets solving themselves, not the opponent solving the Jets. This is mainly because our offensive situation was so muddled for much of the year with the QB, OC and really HC not understanding what the strengths and weaknesses of the offense were. Brian Schottenheimer and Mark Sanchez basically lost 4 games between them that weren't losable based on the talent on this team. If you keep telling a rookie QB to throw the ball on days when you can run it, are under little scoring pressure, and maybe have some bad weather happening you are going to lose those games. Sanchez had 15 of his 20 interceptions in 4 games this year. I keep looking at that number and I can't believe Schotty let that happen, but he did. Put another way, if you take away the terrible 5 Int day against Buffalo - on a day that we were rushing for 300+ yards (I kid you not) they still conspired to produce 10 interceptions in another 3 games combined. That kind of silliness is over, for now. Schotty would get fired if the Jets came out against the Chargers, proved they could run the ball, and then he and Sanchez produced even a couple of turnovers that cost the Jets the game. Really he should have been fired at midseason, but that's a story for another place and time. I disagree here. Drew Brees and the Saints are at least on the same plane as the Chargers offensively if not above and the Jets stopped the Saints offense cold on the carpet in the dome. Matt Schaub and the Texans got shut down also in Houston. Peyton and the Colts were well below normal production in Indy. The Jets have gone into other people's houses and shut down their offenses this year. I don't see why they can't do the same to the Chargers. All 3 of the other teams had an effective rushing complement to go along with the passing attack, that's the only real difference I see. Yep, it'll be fun to watch and a lot of people are going to be screaming at their TV's by the 3rd quarter one way or the other.
Your too damn smart to be posting on here. Those are some great points you have bought up, completely in favor of the opposing team, and I would never expect anyone but a Chargers fan to bring them up. Points such as LT being rested and going into his first healthy post season in years, and the fact that our team is the healthiest its been all year, (with only one person listed on the injury report). Even how you said how we were torched by the run early after losing our all pro NT in week 1. Kudos to you for doing your research and being unbiased :up:
My money's on the Jets but I'm uncertain of the Jets defense against all the tall receivers from the Chargers. If the Jets win the pass defense battle, this is a win. Being optimistic, I say Jets 37-34.
He just said look outside the numbers, then you just went and fed him a bunch of numbers... What he is saying is that LT hasn't been this healthy in the postseason in years, and he said at the beginning of this year that he wants nothing ore than to win a SB with the Chargers and he said I don't care about my numbers this season, I just wanna be healthy come playoff time. Obviously its quite possible he plays exactly how he has up til this point, but in Chargerland we are all hoping he breaks out.
Was Tomlinson healthy at the beginning of the year? In the middle at all? Explain his season in any context other than he's 30, ahh ooh gah, ahh ooh gah, going down... We saw this happen with Curtis. We know what it looks like. A year ago Tomlinson would have rushed for 3.3 YPC on his knees.
J!-E!-T!-S! JETS! JETS! JETS! 24 SD????????????????????????? 20 All the pressure is on the bolts. The Jets are supposed to lose right??? The Jets have nothing to lose but a game. This could be the last chance for this SD team to win it all. The Jets can go out there and play loose, lay it all on the line. Get the W!
jets 24 - chargers 14.... at least it better go this way because i put 100 dollars down on the jets on a bet with some dude
Dude, I love your passionate reasoning about your team. As a fan, you're obviously hard core and the kind of guy I'd like to watch a game with over cold beer and Tequilla. I'll grant you that the Jets D is good at slowing down a passing game. I'll also accept that you have a fantastic offensive line and good backs that hit that hole. That said, you're drunk on RR Koolaide. I've watched your game last week against the Bengals twice now and I'm convinced the Chargers are about to give you a rude reception in SD. The Bengals didn't belong on the field last weekend. IMO, they simply fumbled, stumbled, missed and threw the game away. In no way shape or form did the Jets impose their will on the Bengals. As shitty as the Bengals were, they were only 4 points out of it if Graham doesn't deflate his team by missing two easy field goals. I have to tell ya too, the Chargers and their fans were THRASHED for having a rally before the game in '06 where they eventually self destructed against the Patriots. I can assure you. History is not about to repeat it self. Your defense had better have their best game of the season or it won't be close. 27-17 Chargers. But something tells me I don't need to be that conservative. Cheers!
I'm not nearly as confident about this game as other posters here are. If I had to make a prediction I'd go 23-20 San Diego. Praying I'm wrong, wanting to eat that crow. I am sure it will be a close game and come down to the last minute, our defense can hang with anyone.
In the last 18 years, only two teams have allowed fewer passing yards than the 2009 NY Jets. The 2000 Titans allowed 151.4 yards a game. The 2006 Oakland Raiders that allowed 150.8 yards passing a game, although they couldn't stop the rush and were 25th against, so no one had to pass on them. This Jets team has allowed 153.7 yards passing a game. Definitely not the best of all time, but at least one of the best pass D of all time. As for your "our pass offene has been historic...", they are not even the best passing in THIS year, let alone claiming the 'historic' title. Your YPA is the highest in the last decade? Guess what, it was the worst this yr. Do you understand what 'worst this year' means? It doesn't matter what you did the previous year. You can not run the ball, not against the Jets D for sure that has been the 4th stingiest run D this yr. The Jets stack up perfectly against your O. You mighh be able to pass for a few yards, but don't expect to be putting up 30 or more points against this D.
Ill say the bengals played shitty but a confusing D makes the opposing team look shitty. The 2 field goals would have made it a 4 point victory for us but at the same time you could say the jets should have had that td pass to Braylon that he dropped. Our D didnt play poorly but they didnt have a good game we got run all over and our D kinda played soft in certain areas. Our Offense though has looked much much better the last 2 weeks and Im hoping atleast for continued success against the Chargers.
