The number, BTW, is 6. The study done by those economists at U Chicago says it's better to go for it on 4th and 6 or less from anywhere on the field. Literally. They say that the closer you are to your own goal-line when you make the decision the more likely the other team will score as a result of you giving up possession no matter where you are likely to give it to them.
ooh, I want to play the what if game, too! If Revis doesn't get burned by Ted Ginn Jr for that late TD pass against the Dolphins, Sanchez doesn't throw 5 interceptions and we bumble the FG snap in OT against the Bills, don't give up two kick returns for TD's against the Dolphins the second go around, and not play swiss cheese D against the Jags in the first half, the Jets would be 8-1 this season and in first place (not to mention undefeated if Sanchez doesn't throw that INT and fumble that ball against NO). clearly the awesome power of anger over opportunities lost is predominantly on the Jets side and they have far more to take out on the Patriots than the other way around, because when the game starts it doesn't become dependent on the 22 men on the field who control the action, it is determined by mystical forces that fans contrive that reflects their own fear of lack of control of the game and thus belief that the game is controlled by other irrelevant factors instead of the men in action at those moments who aren't thinking about what happened last week or month, and the Jets clearly have accrued for more of those power motivations that will fuel their abilities.
:up: It never ceases to amaze me how some fans continually think that "being pissed" somehow has something to do with the outcome of the game, even though it is blindingly obvious that it is less successful teams that would have more reasons to be pissed, yet they are still less successful. It's talent, game planning, and execution that matter, folks, and always will be.
Hey, as a fellow Pats fan let me say this. You can "If" or "but" lots of scenarios, but the fact is the Colts made plays when they needed and the game was on the line and the Pats didn't. We could say the same about how the Pats came back and beat Buffalo when they probably shouldn't have. Great teams finish games and teams off. Right now, Manning is the best finisher in the NFL. That team could have 3 or 4 losses easily, but he doesn't let it happen and it rubs off on his team. The Pats need to get that back. They let teams hang in way too long in games right now. All that said, if we get a shot in Indy in the playoffs, I'll certainly feel that the Pats can beat them.
lol, interestingly enough, the last time the Patriots were "pissed" coming off a Colts loss, they played the Jets at Foxboro and lost the game. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2006.htm
IMO the two Pats mistakes were passing on 3rd down and calling a play on 4th down designed to gain 2 yards. Going for it on 4th was not a mistake.
From the Onion: http://www.theonion.com/content/news/patriots_lead_colts_at_halftime Patriots Lead Colts At Halftime November 19, 2009 | Onion Sports INDIANAPOLIS—As of press time, the New England Patriots, playing on the road against an undefeated Indianapolis team, are headed into halftime with an all-but-insurmountable 24-14 lead. Barring an almost inconceivable and utterly out-of-character mistake by head coach Bill Belichick, the Patriots have virtually secured a week 10 win against their closest rivals for AFC dominance. No Belichick-coached Patriots team has ever led by this much at halftime and gone on to lose the game. "If we just keep playing smart Patriots football, I don't see any reason why we won't come out on top," Belichick told reporters, jogging to the locker room with his team as the second-quarter clock expired. "The only time they've been able to stop us is on on short-yardage passing plays, so if we're careful to execute and avoid any situation where we give Peyton Manning excellent field position, I'm extremely confident we'll leave here with a 'W.'" "Really, very confident," the usually reticent Belichick added. "Very." Under Belichick, the Patriots have come to be regarded as the team that is hardest to defeat when it carries a lead into halftime. No other coach is thought to share Belichick's calculating, almost mechanical ability to disregard emotion and analyze the situation on the field, and he is widely respected for always having confidence in his offensive or defensive unit to make the necessary play. "We had hoped to get ahead quickly, but that just didn't pan out," said Colts head coach Jim Caldwell, whose eight-game winning streak is by any rational evaluation almost certainly over. "The Patriots are just too clever, and Bill [Belichick] is just too smart, too tough a customer." "If you're going to wait for Bill Belichick to get overconfident and screw up, you're in for a long day," Caldwell added. "Just doesn't happen." Thus far, both Brady's arm and the Patriots' receivers have been characteristically sharp. There have been few notable miscues, save a short two-yard pass to running back Kevin Faulk that was bobbled and dropped at the halftime two-minute warning, a mistake that was almost certainly noted by Patriots coaches and will be corrected for in second-half adjustments. The Colts offense, however, with Manning's young receiving corps, has committed several significant errors. But the Indianapolis defense has fared even worse, and has only been able to stop pass plays of four yards or fewer, an insignificant advantage that a seasoned coach like Belichick will find easy to avoid. "We have to do a better job in the second half, there's no question about that," Manning said while heading to the tunnel. "Problem is, the Pats simply never, ever, ever hand the game to you. You have to earn it. If we sit back and wait for them to screw up, we're sunk, plain and simple." Sunday Night Football commentator Cris Collinsworth agreed, saying that the Patriots could basically ride Belichick's cool, conservative play-calling and their tremendously competent defense to victory. "Even though the Colts scored first, Belichick has to be feeling good about the way his young defense is playing," Collinsworth said during his halftime breakdown of the game. "Holding Peyton Manning to just 14 points is no small feat. It must be great for them, knowing that their coach trusts them to make plays."
Wasn't this the Brady/Belichik M.O. until 2007? Hang in the game until the last possession and then win it there? I'm guessing it doesn't work as well when your gamers slowly start to fade away.
Not really. They played closer games due to less offensive talent, but they never gave the opponent a sniff in the 4th quarter. This is a case of having a team on the brink and letting them come back. Brady and Moss didn't fade away Sunday. I think you'll see this week that the Pats gamers are not slowly fading away. Of course that is just my opinion.
So if the Pats score on that play where Maroney fumbled, you still think Manning would have won the game? I don't see it that way and that was my point. They scored the winning TD and PAT to give them 7 points. We would still have had the lead and then it comes down to clock management. Thats all I'm saying. the scenario was a real probability that had he not fumbled, we would have either gotten 6 or 3 points.
Bill Simmons is boneheaded. I really wish that I had the willingness to FJM this "article". Sadly, I can only take so much Bill Simmons before my mind just locks up and I wind up staring at a blurred screen.
Simmons is a huge Pats fan. Why admit the Pats' offense got beat only before Manning then shredded their defense, when he can blame it on a simple coaching blunder instead?
Sure, kicking it is a much better idea. It's not like the both of the Colts' two previous drives went 79 yards for TDs.
Actually, no. I was on here the week before saying at that point in the season the Jets had a good shot at winning. They were major fired up and Brady was not Brady yet. I expect a different outcome this week. And Revis is one of the top two corners in the league, and made a great int. But Brady had alot to do with Moss' bad day too.
Revis has almost everything to do with every #1 WR having a bad day, regardless of their talent. Eventually he will get beat, because you can't be amazing everyday against that sort of talent, can you? I just dont think that day will be this Sunday. We shall see.....
It was a gutsy move as they have done this many times before. Going for it on fourth down. But still, to do it on their own 28, they should had punted the ball. Belichick stands by his decision though!
