He said AJ would be no better than an injury prone third starter, and he was lousy for most of the regular season, sandwiching a dominant stretch. He said CC wouldn't win more than 20. Some of the things he said were actually correct, that's all.
One of the signs of a good team is being able to crush lesser teams. In football, those wins are actually more indicative of success in the playoffs than close games against better teams.
I don't know if I'd say he was lousy for most of the season. He was inconsistent, sure. But lousy? Uh-uh. Check this out: Burnett had 25 starts giving up three runs or less. He had one start where he gave up four runs. He had seven starts where he gave up five or more. Now, in those bad starts, he got hit hard. But the majority of his starts were more than serviceable.
If you would have told me prior to the season that AJ was pitching to the tune of 207 IP with a 4.04 era and healthy, I would have told you sign me up.
He was better than an injury-prone third starter. He had a small handful of awful starts, but most of his starts were, at worst, good starts. He pitched over 200 innings. I can't find data after September 15 (though I guess I could do the math myself but I'm too lazy) but as of that date, Burnett had 19 quality starts. He should have won more games than he did. He had some terrible games, but he also pitched some gems. The thing about CC was "correct." Sabathia had 21 quality starts. That could be better, but with the Yankees' lineup, that should be 20 wins, counting offensive barrages factored into his bad games. Stuff happens though, so he fell just short of 20 (though he was in position to get that last one.) Now I know quality starts isn't a great indicator of a pitcher's performance, but a QS does result in a win more often than not. Both guys pitched at the level they were expected to almost all year. A couple of bumps in the road, but more often than not, both put the team in a position to win. Of course. I did say that it's good to beat up on the teams that you're supposed to. However, when you're playing, at best, even with the good teams, and smoking the bad ones, your run differential is deceiving, which was my only point. A big deal has been made that the Rays were better than their record because of their run differential. I argue that their run differential tells an untrue story.
21 quality starts should be 20 wins? That's ridiculous, no matter what team you play for. "...a QS does result in a win more often than not." Yes, it does. I disagree.
The 21 QS on the Yankees. With the lineup this team has, 21 QS plus all the run support should get you 20 wins. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough. As for your disagreement, that's fine. We disagree.
even on the Yankees, expecting 20 wins out of 21 quality starts is far too much. Now, perhaps you'll say you will sometimes get a win in a non-quality starts, which is fine, but expecting every quality start to be a win? AJ Burnett: 21 QS, 13 W. So he had as many QSs, but 7 less wins than CC. What does that tell you? Andy Pettitte: 17 QS, 14 W Joba: 12 QS, 9 W for Boston: Lester: 23 QS, 15 W Beckett: 20 QS, 17 W and of course, some of those wins came in non-QSs. Based on your logic, CC got more wins than a pitcher with his number of QSs would deserve. Expecting perhaps 75-80% of your "quality starts" to be wins on a good team is more reasonable.
Yes, I expect that on a team with the Yankees' lineup, 80% of your QSs should be wins. That is 16 Ws for CC. That only leaves 4 wins for games that aren't QSs. On any given night the Yankees' lineup should score 5+, so even a start that isn't considered "quality," where he gives up 4 or 5, should still have a fair shot at a W. He had 34 starts. 4 wins in 13 (31%) non-quality starts isn't a lot to ask on this team. If ARod is healthy all year, CC probably wins 22. As far as Burnett, he was unlucky a lot. On Sept. 29, he threw 6.1, gave up two runs (1 earned) and got a ND in a 4-3 win. Sept. 19 he threw 7 giving up 1 for ND in a 3-2 loss. Those are just the most recent examples of bad luck. It's not a lot to ask this lineup to score you 3-4 early runs before you get the hook.
