On Defense: We've brought in Bart Scott (And Rex's Scheme) to add to David Harris, and Calvin Pace.... We've also brought in some other guys to help stretch out Jenkins. Jenkins also expects to handle the wear and tear better being at NT for the second year... We've upgraded to Leonhard at SS. We brought in Sheppard and that bumps Lowery to the third CB. Those are huge net positives for the defense.... On Offense, we lost Coles (A pedestrian 70/850 7TD's)...And Favre. (Baker can be replaced by third tackle....as much as we liked him they did not throw to him enough) Coles can be replaced by ANYONE on the roster, coupled with the expected increase in production from Keller. If we Draft WR even better, but right now it's not a need. Cotchery put up similar numbers so if it goes JC:CSC...we're not hurting. The offensive line returns, IN TACT...after being assembled only a year ago. Favre...Hear me out. We got a very talented player, that came in very late, and took a while to hit his stride, against some bad teams. By the time we got to 8-3, it is not terribly unfair to say we could have gotten to 6-5 with Clemens, considering the greater familiarity with the offense and the (lack of) quality among some of our opponents.(Favre lit it up against Ariz, and St.L games we probably would not have lost in either case....)Oakland, and NE WK2, might have come out differently... However...down the stretch once Favre was..(Hurt?!?!?) Clemens could have been sat for ratliffe, or not gotten the same injury....either way, its fair to think we might have gone 3-2 down the stretch, the difference being relatively neutral. So, in the final analysis, we really only got Brett Favre for 8 games out of the Season weeks 4-12(bye included)....So it is fair to argue that Clemens (specifically) or Ratliff will be just as productive over 16 games... Opinions? Pessimism, or Optimism?
I'm going to say the team will be much better, pretty much solely because of Rex Ryan. However, the schedule is rough. It's going to be an uphill battle to make the playoffs this year.
It's worse at the moment but not a lot worse. Anybody who thinks any of our QB's is going to be even close to what Favre gave us until he broke down is hallucinating.
The jury is still out on Rex but i feel he will be a better coach then Mangini ever was for us even in his first year and the defense will be much improved with him at the helm also. That translates into a better team then last season. Losing Coles and Baker on offense hurts because Coles has earned respect in this league more then any of his replacements on the roster have so until they prove something we'll have to assume it will kick us down a notch. Losing Baker hurts a lot if you ask me. If he was used more by Mangini he would have been a better weapon for us last season but we will still miss his blocking ability and the respect that he garnered when he was used in 2 TE sets allowing either him or Keller to make plays(even though they never gave him opportunities to make any). If we draft Pettigrew we upgrade the offense signifigantly IMO. Otherwise this is a big blow.
Are you saying we got more from Favre, in the First 3 weeks, than Clemens might have given???? You might want to take a look at last years sked. First 3 weeks, nothing special, last 5 weeks broke down. Thats half a season.
Thats comparing apples to oranges, and I went out of my way to point that out. WE NEVER USED BAKER properly, so the Team cannot be worse by losing his production because Robert Turner was just as effective as a blocker.
I like your analysis of the Defense. I think we've upgraded personnel, and eventually the system should be better. Since there will be change this year, though, we have to see how quickly things gel. I hope it's an upgrade this season overall. I think you may have described Favre right, but we're currently transitioning to basically nothing. One guy we know a little about in Clemens, then two guys we know nothing at all about. At least with broken Favre we knew what we had. So I think you have to say QB is a gigantic question mark at this point. Gun to the head, I'd have to say we're worse off going into next year than we were going into last year unless something changes between now and Sept. I still consider Coles a loss, but not a huge one. And I think you describe some of the mitigating factors....especially the continued development of Keller....pretty well. I still wouldn't mind seeing another player added to that mix, though. TJ is a year older. Will he fall off the cliff this year? Hopefully not, and hopefully he'll be productive again. Also, hoping Leon continues to develop and that the Jets continue to find new and interesting ways to work him in more. I think we're fine for 2009 at RB, but wouldn't mind seeing a young player drafted or otherwise added for 2010. I'm hoping our O-line continues to develop, too, which I think almost makes our RB situation a moot point since if the O-line is stout, we can plug in anyone at RB. Regarding Rex, I'm also hopeful he'll eventually be a huge upgrade. I can't say this will be true in week 1, though, since he's never been a head coach, so we just don't know and I don't think it's fair to consider him an upgrade for week 1. I think right now we're either similar to last year overall or maybe a small amount worse. But we still have the draft and maybe some more moves coming.
Favre was on a pace for a Pro Bowl season after 11 games. I highly doubt any of our current QB's will be able to say the same thing at that point next year. To make the point more clearly, he had 20 TD passes and a 70% completion percentage and had lead the Jets to 303 pts at that time which is usually their season's allotment.
100 of which came against two teams. We might not have scored that much against Ariz, and St. L. But we probably would not have lost those games at home.
Wow, this part of your post completely blew my mind. I don't like to pick others people's posts apart but seriously... 1) Had we not traded for Favre, Chad would have been playing not Clemens and Ratliff 2) Being that we still don't know what we have in Clemens and Ratliff now, how can you possibly predict what they would have done last year? Until we find out what we have in Clemens and Ratliff we can't even begin to guess what would have happened last year had they played, even then there's no way of telling how things would have gone down.
I'm not predicting anything...I don't like to pick other peoples reading ability apart but seriously... Weeks 1-3 while Favre was learning the offense we went 1-2, the win coming against Miami, who was also breaking in a new QB.....We lost to NE by 6. And got Blown out in SD. A familiar QB, could have done just as well in that stretch. then...skip the next 8...I've conceded that with the caveat that Favre looked better because of Arizona and St.L, but odds are we win those games anyway..However, how did BF look against Oakland(thought that loss was a team effort) However, down the Last 5.....we went 1-4, against some bad teams.... So, weeks 1-3, and games 12-16 inclusive...we went 2-6...do you seriously mean to assert that anyone on the roster would have been worse?
Tough to say. Coach: Better most likely, but not 100% guarenteed. (Just 99.9%) Defense: Better players and philosophy/scheme. Offense: Same O-line and RB's. A QB who will likely throw less than 22 INT's. Weak WR's but the draft is not done yet. I will say Better. Schedule: Much harder. Result: TBA
You are absolutely trying to predict something... You are trying to predict how last season would have gone down, specifically our record, if Kellen Clemens and/or Brett Ratliff were at the helm. That is just a ridiculous thing to try and decipher, Especially since the jury on Clemens and Ratliff is still out. It is also a ridiculous thing to ponder since Chad would have been playing last year not Clemens and/or Ratliff had we not traded for Favre.
Intresting post Hobbes. I'm not really sure i can disagree with any of it. I feel the biggest secondary addition was easily Leonhard. He should free Rhodes up to tear it up and make some huge plays this season.
I think the team as a whole will be better, but due to the strength of the schedule, it may not show very well record wise. Anything over 10 wins next year is a very impressive season.
The D will be MEAN, therefore will be fun to watch. If the offense can at least compete I think they'll be better and fun to watch.
We don't even know if Clemens will be the starter until august. no matter who is behind center, this year is not going to be an easy one. Its a 6-9 win season depending solely on the QB. I don't see the defense immediately becoming this juggernaut that scores on its own. Its going to be in the 8-12 rankings all season. The offense has this "never anything special" label wrapped around it, which I disagree with philosophically. Let's be a ball control offense but exciting, like in 2006. And Favre made a huge difference in how teams played us. And the Pats/Titans wins are gone with anyone else behind center. That is a 6-7 win season with Clemens under center. Maybe 5 with that pussy defense.
the 8 toughest schedules in the nfl based on SOS are the 4 teams in the nfc south and the afc east. we face those 4 teams, i see only a div winner getting in, at 8-8 or 9-7.
