We would have never moved on if we kept Chad which is why the move was not a dissaster at all. Cutting Chad and bringing in a 39 year old QB was a stop gap. Keeping Chad and him having the kind of year he had this year would have ment a 3 to 5 year contract extension of this years version of Todd Collins.
The big mistake was not cutting Pennington (although getting nothing for him was a great move), but trading for Favre. That is what has set this organization back. You got your year of the gunslinger. To me it wasn't worth it.
We would never have cut Pennington without Favre and he would have ended up starting and doing good enough to get an extension. The fact that we were holding a QB tryout tells you all you need to know about how committed managment was to developing Clemens or Ratliff this year. They didn't have the balls to do it.
Can't say I disagree with that. But the chance of Clemens or Ratliff starting disappeared with the arrival of Favre. It would always have been lingering with Pennington as the QB.
The problem is Mgmt will not accept the fact that they have to concede going through at least one year of bumps and losing to develop a young Qb. As long as Woody wants to sell his PSL's we might have to sit through another year or Farve or Jeff Garcia or whatever over the hill Qb that can keep the team close to the playoffs next year as well. With a good coach and a team willing to develop a Qb the right way I would bet Clemens, Ratliff or Ainge would be a Qb of the future for us.
I am well aware of what an outlier is, thank you. What I am talking about is - when removing possibly shoddy data points - you remove all perceived outliers, not just the ones that bring your data closer to the desired result.
I didn't see any other outliers, nothing remotely close to six touchdown passes. The average number of touchdown/interceptions per game for Favre was 1.375. Six is clearly the only real outlier.
An outlier is determined mathematically. There is a formula to find what data points are outliers, they aren't just numbers that seem high or low. The only outlier is the 6 TD passes. Without getting into IQRs again, an outlier is a number that lies 3 standard deviations above or below the mean
The last game (possibly the last two games) would be outliers, as well, depending on what you're looking at (straight TD/INT totals, or TD/INT ratio, or TD/ATT, INT/ATT, QB rating, etc.). But really, just go back and look at the second part of my initial post on the matter, which said that you ALSO look for mitigating and/or confounding factors when analyzing data. I'm a molecular biologist... this is what I do. If I run an experiment at 4°C fifteen for fifteen out of sixteen conditions, and at 37°C for the last condition... guess which condition is going to have the data point that exists as an outlier, when viewed in a vacuum? In this particular case, it's the data point that would most resemble in vivo conditions. If you're a statistician, then you already know this. You don't view data in a vacuum. Not if it is to have any relevance. You need to know the conditions. So back to my original point, you can't look at Favre's season, take away his one 6TD game (which indeed looks like an anomaly), and then say, "See? Without that good game, he sucked for the rest of the season," and leave it at that. Sorry, but that's shitty analysis. As I said, I am well aware of what an outlier is. And, since you want to be accurate, there are several methods for determining outliers from a data set, depending on the analysis used and data obtained. And if we really, really want to be accurate, statistical analysis (even of the PhD variety) isn't really going to be of much use when dealing with the relatively small sample sizes and shifting backgrounds provided during the course of an NFL season. Or, at the very least, if you are going to try to do it, TD totals is probably the worst stat you could use.
It's not what the Jets would have done. It's all about what they should have done. The Jets should not have brought Favre in and should have given the young QBs a shot. The Jets are not at a stop gap phase. They are in a phase where the next QB needs to be found. I will never change my opinion that bringing Favre in was a complete waste of a year, Pennington or no Pennington.
Favre was also tied for tenth in the NFL with over 35 percent of all passes attempted resulting in first downs. Something detractors always seem to dismiss as irrelevent. Also, touchdowns scored on 1 and 2 yard plunges by running backs tend to skew a possible QB rating. Favre could have had at least 5 other TD passes from goal to goal situations that we chose to run in. ( Which I totally agree with, pound it in and play it safe) My point is would that change your mind of his season if he had thrown 4 or 5 more TD passes from the 2 yard line? His quarterback rating would have jumped from 81 into the 90's. How many drops were there in the end zone? I count at least four off the top of my head. 2 by Keller, and one apiece from Cotchery and Coles. That's not including the ones that Coles may have scored vs Seattle and one that Jerricho dropped on the Denver 3 yard line with a chance to score. What about the throw in Oakland that he had a wide open Baker in overtime, and he fell down. Guess that was Favre's fault as well.
:rofl: I'm not going to argue with you any more. The more you talk the less you show you know. I'm not the one who turned it into a statistical discussion, you did. My point was that throw away one great game , and his stats suck. You want to throw away his worst game as well, his stats will still suck. So look at it any way you want. Statistically or otherwise, the point was for 15 out of 16 games he was either good or he sucked. For one game he was great.
chad wasn't the answer and Favre wasn't either. I'm glad they took the shot on a HOF gunslinger like Favre rather than sticking with a QB who we knew wasn't the answer.
I thought his best games were @NE and @Tenn. The Arizona game produced the best statistics, but wasn't even close to his best game IMO. He was great @NE and @Tenn.
Um, actually, no. It was already a statistical discussion when I came in. But whatever. If you had an actual refutation, I'd assume you'd post it. And that is shitty "analysis." You have a PhD in statistics? Then you should know better. And my guess is you DO know better, it's just that - at the time you made the original comment - it was not meant to be an overly analytical remark. The problem is you tried to pull the "I have a PhD in statistics and I know how to analyze data" schtick after the fact to justify it. Bullshit. You weren't analyzing data. You were looking for a way to make Favre's season look worse than it already was. (And, yes, it was a shitty season.) Unless, of course, you actually think TD totals for a season are a great way to analyze QB stats for a season, in which case, I can only assume there are minimal requirements for receiving PhD's in statistics these days. Yes, and that's a valid observation. Not much in the way of analysis, but hey, whatever.
The same arguments can be made for every NFL QB. Every NFL team has numerous short runs for TDs, drops in the end zone, and drops in general. I did not see more drops than usual from this Jet team.
It would have sucked playing yesterday for having a bye? That's what they play for, that's why we watch. Chad would have had a much better chance w/ the talent we have rather than playing w/ the lack of talent around him in Miami. He was supposedlly 10th in passes for 1st downs, this is a big deal? Did he have some drops? sure but he had alot more bad passes than drops. the MAN WAS horrible. He cost us a chance at a great season. We carried him half the year keeping us in contention then he played well for about 3-4 games and looked like he got it then he looked even worse late than he did early in the year. He cost us our season and no silly stat you throw out at us will change that.
Should have done? They don't believe in Clemens they had no clue what they had in Ratliff that's why they held a QB comp when they didn't believe in Chad. They GM or the HC mishandled the QB situation from the day they took over. They haven't drafted their guy in three years with plenty of opportunities to do so.
