Assuming no one ties, one can look at 3 teams and their outcomes - Jets, NE, and Balt. Miami is, of course, important, but Miami's and the Jets' outcomes are tied together (if the Jets win, Miami necessarily loses. And vice versa). So we have 3 teams with 2 outcomes each. Or, 2^3=8 possible outcomes. These are: Jets loss, NE loss, Balt loss --- Jets out of playoffs Jets loss, NE loss, Balt win --- Jets out of playoffs Jets loss, NE win, Balt loss --- Jets out of playoffs Jets loss, NE win, Balt win --- Jets out of playoffs Jets win, NE loss, Balt loss --- Jets in playoffs Jets win, NE loss, Balt win --- Jets in playoffs Jets win, NE win, Balt loss --- Jets in playoffs Jets win, NE win, Balt win - Jets out of playoffs So if we assume ties aren't possible, and that the other outcomes are equally likely, the Jets have a 3 in 8 chance of making the playoffs. Not bad. Of course, the Jets are 9-6 and NE and Balt are 10-5. So really all teams have a better chance of winning than losing from that POV (NE and Balt win exactly twice as often as they lose. Jets win more than they lose, but not quite as often as the other two teams). That would push us even more strongly to the last 4 possibilities. Long story short, the Jets still have a decent shot. I'll be going on Sunday. I think if NE loses at 1, the Jets will storm in and take a dump on Chad and his dinks and dunks. J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!
You're incorrectly assuming that the probability of each outcome is equal. It's unlikely that the Pats lose to the Bills and even more unlikely that the Ravens lose to the Jags at home.
Jags almost beat the colts last week, and will want to end strong with another solid showing (guys are playing for jobs here). Bills just beat Denver. Doesn't seem to mean much, but they finished a game for what seems like first time ina long time. NE is prime for a hickup. Oh yeah, adn the ravens, generally, do not score a ton of points either. If the cowboys had a defense at the end of the game last week, Ravens put what, 20 points on the board? Jags should be in that game all game. The question is: Can they finish? We'll see. We'll know going into the game the situation for the division. If NE loses at Buffalo before the jets game, it becomes a game for the divison. If not, there will be score board watching.
the jags almost beat the colts @ HOME, this game is @ baltimore, i think its 99.999 % sure with a Playoff spot on the line, that baltimore wins, with this defense, they wont let this happen @ home, imo buffalo could beat NE, but the way NE played in that snowstorm last week, i dont think they will
better probability analysis: jets beat miami 50% bills beating ne 30% jags beating ravs 30% so our chances of getting into the dance is: jets beat miami (0.5) X bills beat ne (.3) = 0.15 plus jets beat miami (0.5) X jags beat ravs (.3) = 0.15 equals 0.15 + 0.15 = 0.30 or 30% chance of snow. or 37.5%. take your pick
Here's how to do these damn odds and maybe at least gain financially in the event of the Jets blowing New England are 1.3 (European style of odds) to win their game. Baltimore are around 1.13 to win their game. Combined these make a 1.44 parlay (or around -225 in US odds) Stick $100 on and you make $44 if they both win and stop NYJ having any chance. If that happens you've made $44. Obviously up the bet if Jets making the play offs means more to you. If somehow one of them loses then the Jets are a simple 1.7 shot to make it (around 57%) but you can cover them choking with a bet on MIA. That said, with 2002 in mind, if we do somehow start our game with a chance I'd like to think the players and crowd will blow Miami away if we still have a chance.
Ask yourself, how has New England been playing lately, how have the Ravens been playing lately, and how have the Dolphins been playing lately? Now go ask yourself, how have the Jets been playing lately, and tell me what your odds are then.
You will definitely start the game with a chance, because Baltimore's game is also at 4:15 (I think).
They HUNG with the Colts in the 1st half before the dam broke open in the 2nd. That team has mailed it in. As bad as this sounds, I think the Bills have a better chance of winning than the JAGS. That being said, I think the JETS win and miss the playoffs :shit:
Hmmm, seems to me Mr. Dink and Dunk is on your team.. "our" QB has better numbers than yours (excepting total td's) including passes over 20 yards, rating, and YPC. The dinkanddunker is wearing green.
I forgot that rather important stat - kind of messes up my plan of the NE/BAL parlay. The odds suggest that Jets win and still miss the playoffs. Purely on a percentage basis that's the most likely outcome.
LOL. Fingers crossed for Sunday. I actually had a dream last night New England lost and the Jet's were playing for the division. Then I woke up. :sad:
This is the bit I'm clinging to. I've got a sizeable sum coming my way if San Diego win the SB and it was good of the Bills to extend the life of that wager. Nice to bet San Diego at +12000 and lay some off at +3000 for a nice profit. Hoping the Bills will oblige me/Jets once again.
Jets loss, NE win, Balt win --- Jets out of playoffs Jets win, NE win, Balt win - Jets out of playoffs Take a pick. Thats what will happen.
Update in real time with Euro odds Jets currently 1.82 to beat Miami (just after the 1st INT of the day) Baltimore at 1.22 59% * 22% = about 12% That's our 'official' chance! (I preferred the 37.5% at the start of this thread!!)
Jets currently 1.92 (Miami just punted) Baltimore now 1.38 (curremtly 3-7 down) 53% * 28% = 15% (fractionally better than before) A long way to go
Fumble recovery by Jets causes a major swing in the betting. Jets go from 2.22 to 1.73 Jets now a 64% chance of winning Back to 12% of makintg the play offs
