I thought that Pats would go for two after Moss TD. I thought Belly would just try to just rip Manginis heart out.
They were talking about that on NFL Radio this morning. Does anyone think that the Pats wouldn't have gotten the 2pt. conversion if they'd tried? I think the Jets D was so shellshocked at that point, any play would have scored.
At home. Big comeback in the 4th quarter. Scored in the last seconds. Jets D was exhausted. Pats would have been smart to go for two. If they succeeded, it would have crushed the NYJ franchise. BB missed an opportunity.
I thought they would go for it as well. You would think that with all of the momentum they would have been able to score. With the way the Jets were playing having everybody wide and then having Cassell run a QB draw play might have been very effective. It would have put the dagger in the heart of the Jets.
Oh man, imagine if they had gone for two and actually failed, though? Beli would be on exactly the same plane as Herm for one week. Can you imagine BB's press conference afterwards? *mumbles* "What was that coach?" *mumbles* "I'm sorry, could you repe--" "I SAID YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!"
As enticing as it might have seemed, Belicheck definitely made the right call. statistics and probabilities on 2pt conversion attempts back that up. They actually crunch those numbers you know, and have charts. It's usually fans that want to maekt he big gamble, go for it on fourth down, or 2 pts, or whatever. That's whey they're fans and not coaches. In the long run that is a losing path.
Statistically they should have gone for 2. (at least based on a quick google seach for extra point percentage) .50.1 vs .50 (assuming evenly matched teams) Slight advantage to the 2pt conversion over the coin toss of overtime. However that was the first time BB has lost in OT, so I'm sure he was thinking it was 50.1 vs 100. Statistically you should always go fo 2, especially if you are the stronger team. However you look like more of an idiot when you lose by 1 point. You are an idiot on a one point loss and lucky on a one point win.
I would be interested to see this source that says 2 point conversions are successful 51% of the time. Please link.
That’s what I figured – OT isn’t worth a gamble anymore. Everyone laughed at Herm for doing it but I’d rather out swinging than leaving it up to a coin toss.
If you take the commonly used 44.5% chance to convert on 2-point conversions, which sounds reasonable, then the Patriots faced the following choices at that point: 1. Kick the XP, which is a 97.5% chance and send the game to OT. They had a 50/50 chance at winning in OT so their overall chance to win based on that scenario was 48.5%. 2. Try the 2-point coversion which is a 44.5% chance to win. Based just on the raw numbers there's no question the Pats should kick the XP as their best chance to win the game. Now, let's look at other factors here. The Pats were the team that had dominated the second half, moving the ball at will and only being in the poor position they were in due to mistakes on their part. The Pats running game was essentially non-functional, with only Cassell's scrambles making the numbers decent. The Pat's defense had done a reasonable job of shutting the Jets down in the second half allowing only 1 TD in that timespan. Ok, so who is more likely to do something with the ball if they get it in OT? Pats. Who is more likely to get shut down on the opening drive in OT? Jets. Who therefore should be trying to play OT if the other numbers support it? Pats. Belichik made the right call. And yes, I was scared he was going to make the wrong one and beat the Jets.
Thanks for replying to my request but ... umm ... your source says 44%, not 51%. So your own source for statistics is proving you wrong (as others have ably done the math to show).
I was 99.9% sure that if the Pats scored on that final drive (and they did) that BB would send the boys out there to go for 2. They attempted one earlier that game and got it with ease. With the way Cassel was running on us I thought it was pretty much a sure bet. Thank God he didn't.
How about a link from you showing 44%. I found some sites saying that was an old statistic. How about one for the last 5 years? I'm pretty sure its higher than that. What about for the pats. I'm pretty sure its much higher for them. I'm not going to defend the 51 stat (the article was the third one in on a google search, but it was for 2007). 44% obvioulsy changes to go for 1. from what I can tell its pretty tough to find an actual modern statistic. The article I had read only looked at recent years. (I'm too new on GG to post links). I think a better statistic might be 3rd down and 2 conversion %.(this would take out poor teams making despiration attempts at 2, and also give many many more data points). Somone should be able to find this for the pats. I bet its higher than 50%. Although this isn't a perfect stat becasue the end zone makes a downfield threat go away and the defense can play tighter coverage. In any case I don't think its a no-brainer to go for OT. However because of the appearence of going for 2 (the "idiot" vs "lucky" dillema) kicking was the right call for BB. Good thing we won the toss. One more thing I noticed is there is a HFA advantage for the pats in OT. So even with my .51% statistic its better to go for one and take it to OT (it isn't strictly 50/50 for a balanced team) BTW, BB doesn't listen to his statisticians all the time. No coach does. Coaches make decisions based on many factors not available to cold hard statistics. The best coach isn't afraid to make the "wrong" statistical decision when his gut tells him to do something else. This isn't blackjack, there are millions of variables that effect the outcome.
I think he made the right call to go for OT in that situation. I'm sure he felt as did most everyone else watching the game that the Pats were winning in OT. I'll tell you though, I breathed a sigh of relief when they kicked the PAT.
There was no way the Pats were going to give the Jets a second chance to make one stop to end the game. Best case scenario for them kicking the PAT was they'd get the ball and score on a shellshocked Jets D anyway. Worst case scenario their D goes back on the field with a ton of momentum, and they nearly did get us three and out. Herm OTOH was right to go for two. His team's going nowhere, facing a better team on the road. That's when you go for two at the end.
